Outlook discussion

Updated:

• Tuesday, 30 May 2023 – 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT; 18:00 UTC)

Discussion by:

• Dr. Philippe Papin, NHC Hurricane Specialist
  
• Eric Blake, NHC Senior Hurricane Specialist
  

Discussion text:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The system is then forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula later this week.
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
Development potential:

• Next 2 days: low (10 percent) ▲
  
• Next 7 days: low (20 percent) ▲
  

Official information

National Hurricane Center

For information regarding the ongoing development of this system and other areas of disturbed weather across the northern Atlantic Ocean.

• NHC homepage
  
• Tropical Weather Outlook
  

Weather Prediction Center

For information regarding impacts from tropical and non-tropical storm systems, including rainfall amounts and excessive rainfall alerts.

• WPC homepage
  
• Surface analysis
  
• Fronts forecast
  
• Excessive rainfall
  
• Quantitative precipitation forecast
  

National Weather Service

For information regarding impacts to your local information, provided by meteorologists working in your area of the country.

• NWS Tampa Forecast discussion
  
• NWS Key West Forecast discussion
  
• NWS Miami Forecast discussion
  
• NWS Melbourne Forecast discussion
  
• NWS Jacksonville Forecast discussion
  

Radar imagery

National Weather Service

• KTBW – Tampa Bay
  
• KBYX — Key West
  
• KAMX — Miami
  
• KMLB – Melbourne
  

College of DuPage

• Southeastern United States (mosaic)
  
• KTBW — Tampa Bay
  
• KBYX — Key West
  
• KAMX – Miami
  
• KMLB — Melbourne
  

Satellite imagery

Regional imagery

Central Atlantic

• Enhanced Infrared
  
• Enhanced Water vapor
  
• Visible (true color)
  

Forecast models

Ensembles

WeatherNerds

• GEFS (120 hours)
  
• ECENS (120 hours)
  

Dynamical

Tropical Tidbits

• GFS
• ECMWF
• CMC
• ICON

NORTH AMERICA LEG 1

March 8, 2019 - Vancouver, BC, Canada
March 11, 2019 - Seattle, WA, USA
March 14, 2019 - Portland, OR, USA
March 17, 2019 - San Francisco, CA, USA
March 20, 2019 - Los Angeles, CA, USA
March 23, 2019 - Las Vegas, NV, USA
March 26, 2019 - Denver, CO, USA
March 29, 2019 - Minneapolis, MN, USA
April 1, 2019 - Chicago, IL, USA
April 4, 2019 - Toronto, ON, Canada
April 7, 2019 - Montreal, QC, Canada
April 10, 2019 - Boston, MA, USA
April 13, 2019 - Philadelphia, PA, USA
April 16, 2019 - New York City, NY, USA
April 19, 2019 - Washington, D.C., USA
April 22, 2019 - Atlanta, GA, USA
April 25, 2019 - Nashville, TN, USA
April 28, 2019 - New Orleans, LA, USA
May 1, 2019 - Houston, TX, USA
May 4, 2019 - Dallas, TX, USA
May 7, 2019 - Phoenix, AZ, USA
May 10, 2019 - San Diego, CA, USA
May 13, 2019 - Los Angeles, CA, USA
May 17, 2019 - Sunrise, FL, USA

EUROPE

June 8, 2019 - London, United Kingdom
June 11, 2019 - Dublin, Ireland
June 14, 2019 - Glasgow, United Kingdom
June 17, 2019 - Amsterdam, Netherlands
June 20, 2019 - Brussels, Belgium
June 23, 2019 - Paris, France
June 26, 2019 - Barcelona, Spain
June 29, 2019 - Madrid, Spain
July 2, 2019 - Lisbon, Portugal
July 5, 2019 - Rome, Italy
July 8, 2019 - Milan, Italy
July 11, 2019 - Zurich, Switzerland
July 14, 2019 - Vienna, Austria
July 17, 2019 - Berlin, Germany
July 20, 2019 - Warsaw, Poland
July 23, 2019 - Prague, Czech Republic
July 26, 2019 - Budapest, Hungary
July 29, 2019 - Bucharest, Romania
August 1, 2019 - Sofia, Bulgaria
August 4, 2019 - Athens, Greece
August 7, 2019 - Istanbul, Turkey

ASIA

September 10, 2019 - Tokyo, Japan
September 13, 2019 - Osaka, Japan
September 16, 2019 - Seoul, South Korea
September 19, 2019 - Beijing, China
September 22, 2019 - Shanghai, China
September 25, 2019 - Taipei, Taiwan
September 28, 2019 - Manila, Philippines
October 1, 2019 - Bangkok, Thailand
October 4, 2019 - Singapore City, Singapore
October 7, 2019 - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
October 10, 2019 - Jakarta, Indonesia
October 13, 2019 - Mumbai, India
October 16, 2019 - Dubai, United Arab Emirates
October 19, 2019 - Tel Aviv, Israel
October 22, 2019 - Istanbul, Turkey
October 25, 2019 - Athens, Greece
October 28, 2019 - Sofia, Bulgaria
November 1, 2019 - Moscow, Russia
November 4, 2019 - St. Petersburg, Russia
November 7, 2019 - Helsinki, Finland
November 10, 2019 - Stockholm, Sweden
November 13, 2019 - Oslo, Norway
November 16, 2019 - Copenhagen, Denmark
November 19, 2019 - Amsterdam, Netherlands
November 22, 2019 - Berlin, Germany
November 25, 2019 - Warsaw, Poland
November 28, 2019 - Prague, Czech Republic
December 1, 2019 - Vienna, Austria
December 4, 2019 - Budapest, Hungary
December 7, 2019 - Bucharest, Romania
December 10, 2019 - Athens, Greece

OCEANIA

January 10, 2020 - Auckland, New Zealand
January 13, 2020 - Wellington, New Zealand
January 16, 2020 - Christchurch, New Zealand
January 19, 2020 - Sydney, Australia
January 22, 2020 - Melbourne, Australia
January 25, 2020 - Brisbane, Australia
January 28, 2020 - Perth, Australia

NORTH AMERICA LEG 2

February 10, 2020 - Seattle, WA
February 13, 2020 - Portland, OR
February 16, 2020 - San Francisco, CA
February 19, 2020 - Los Angeles, CA
February 22, 2020 - Phoenix, AZ
February 25, 2020 - Denver, CO
February 28, 2020 - Minneapolis, MN
March 2, 2020 - Chicago, IL
March 5, 2020 - Toronto, ON
March 8, 2020 - Montreal, QC
March 11, 2020 - Boston, MA

CANCELLED SHOWS DUE TO COVID-19

March 14, 2020 - New York City, NY
March 17, 2020 - Philadelphia, PA
March 20, 2020 - Washington, D.C.
March 23, 2020 - Atlanta, GA
March 26, 2020 - Miami, FL
March 29, 2020 - Nashville, TN

A year to the day since the Dockers announced themselves as premiership contenders at the home of football, Walyalup blew the finals race open, writes ELIZA REILLY in her round 11 report card.
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/fremantle/fremantle-dockers-round-11-report-card-ruck-quandary-after-luke-jackson-shines-in-win/news-story/b5ebd6d86b7f20fec5d760e76b52e742
There’s something about Walyalup playing Naarm at the MCG.
A year to the day since the Dockers announced themselves as premiership contenders at the home of football, Walyalup blew the finals race open with a thrilling seven-point win over the Demons.
Here is the Dockers’ round 11 report card.

Distinctions

Luke Jackson: It was always going to be a big day for the premiership Demon up against his old side, yet that day got a lot bigger when ruck sidekick Sean Darcy hobbled to the bench with a hamstring injury early in the second quarter. Having played as a midfielder in the first quarter, Jackson assumed the mantle of Walyalup’s No.1 ruck and thrived. Willed himself to contest after contest and limited the influence of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy, while having a big one himself. It begs the question: should the ruck split be more even when Darcy returns?
Andrew Brayshaw: Cheekily told his helmeted brother Angus to ‘strap in’ and while his older sibling was doing damage on the outside, Brayshaw got to work in the middle. His evasive powers were on full display, fighting his way through traffic to send Walyalup forward, including a crucial inside 50 lace-out pass late to Bailey Banfield, who kicked the sealer. His past month has been exceptional.
Hayden Young: Was highlighted by Justin Longmuir as one of the Dockers who had come the furthest during pre-season and now we’re starting to see why. Was the biggest driver of the footy on the ground, with a game-high 644m gained from 27 touches. That’s the attacking side of Young but it came from nine intercept possessions. He was also exceptional in the air.
Jye Amiss: You’d hope the folks at AFL house were watching because it’s getting harder and harder to overlook Amiss for a Rising Star nomination. External recognition or not, Amiss is growing before our eyes. He’s hitting the scoreboard like a seasoned key forward, not a kid, adding another three goals to his tally to take the lead in Walyalup’s goalkicking stakes. His ability to impact the contest and follow up like a small forward is mightily impressive.

Passes

Matthew Johnson: So much composure for someone so young. Playing his first full game back since suspension, Johnson continues to prove wrong the countless clubs who overlooked him in the 2021 draft. He’s strong in the core and hard to bring down, and his decision-making is excellent, especially that kick in traffic out to a wing that he could’ve easily bombed forward. Used the ball at 75 per cent and sent the footy inside 50 six times.
Ethan Hughes: Had some shaky moments but overall, he looks a lot more settled back in defence after a subpar start to the season on the wing. While Pearce, Cox and Ryan will get all the headlines, it suits Hughes to slip under the radar and focus purely on his opponent. But against the Demons, Hughes also won back the footy a few times and got himself involved in going back the other way with eight marks.

Fails

Brandon Walker: Harsh given he’s played on and won battles against some of the league’s best small forwards in the past few weeks, but Walker got taught a lesson by Kysaiah Pickett. At his best, which he was close to on Saturday, Pickett is an incredibly hard match-up for any defender. Walker can match him for speed but the Dockers defender just lost touch a few times and paid the price; Pickett had two goals and seven score involvements. A lesson learnt for next time.
Skill errors and connection: It ultimately wasn’t costly but some of Walyalup’s early-season demons came back to haunt it in the first half. Probably a symptom of Naarm’s elite pressure, the Dockers fumbled more than they have in the past few weeks and skill errors cost them a few looks, especially going inside 50. Walyalup struggled early to hit that final kick inside 50, in a flashback to its past midfield-forward connection issues. An in-form team would’ve found a way to punish the Dockers but the Demons were having the same issues up the other end.

The focus this week

Rest and recovery. Fremantle arrives at its mid-season bye with a 6-5 record and very much in contention for the top eight. Players and coaches are on a four-day break, with some choosing to remain in Melbourne and spend time with family and friends. All will return to the club later this week, with a Saturday night clash with Richmond back home on the horizon.
Speaking of recovery, the Dockers will get an extra week to make progress on Sean Darcy’s hamstring injury. Michael Walters is on track to return after the bye; his scans revealed a strained calf. Defender Heath Chapman still has around a month to go in his comeback from a hamstring injury, while the Dockers are still yet to place a timeline on Matt Taberner’s rehab from back surgery but are confident he’ll return this season.
The most pressing focus for Fremantle is Wednesday’s mid-season draft. The Dockers have one list spot available, which they are expected to fill. Potential target Robert Hansen Jr missed his final draft audition with Subiaco due to illness but you’d think Fremantle has seen enough to make a decision on the small forward.

Company Name	Title	City
Konica Minolta	Field Service Installer	Boca Raton
Alera Group, Inc.	Benefits Coordinator	Boca Raton
The East Manatee Fire Rescue District	Office Coordinator	Bradenton
Delta Companies	MD Family Physician	Fort Lauderdale
Catholic Health Services	COTA	Fort Lauderdale
Catholic Health Services	Physiotherapy Assistant	Fort Lauderdale
Lumen Inc	Cloud Manager	Fort Myers
Corey Jenkins	After-School Sitter	Groveland
Advance Auto Parts Black History Month	General Manager in Training	Hernando
Baptist Health South Florida	Registered Nurse, Float Pool-Healthcare Provider, $25,000 Bonus, FT, 07P-7:30A	Hialeah
Sunshine State Health Plan	Long Term Care Specialist	Hialeah
connectRN	Registered Nurse (RN)	Jacksonville
Path Hire	Administrative Assistant	Jupiter
Path Hire	BDC Assistant	Jupiter
Nurse 2 Nurse Staffing	Travel RN	Key West
American Mobile Healthcare	Travel Nurse	Kissimmee
Lumen Inc	Network Systems Technician	Lehigh Acres
PruittHealth	LPN	Lutz
PruittHealth	Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN)	Lutz
PruittHealth	Licensed Practical Nurse LPN	Lutz
Texas Roadhouse	Dish Washer	Melbourne
PeaceHealth	LTAC RN	Melbourne
Path Hire	Pick Up and Delivery Driver	Miami
UnitedHealth Group	Analista Sistemas SAP Pleno - Morumbi, SP	Miami
Baptist Health South Florida	Registered Nurse, Float Pool-Healthcare Provider, $25,000 Bonus, FT, 07P-7:30A	Miami

Hey guys, here are some recent job openings in fl. Feel free to comment here or send me a private message if you have any questions, I'm at the community's disposal! If you encounter any problems with any of these job openings please let me know that I will modify the table accordingly. Thanks!

Hey everybody
There was a ton of hail damage in my area (Melbourne, FL), and this metal shed got dinged up badly. I want to write an accurate estimate for this shed, and not sure if it needs to be replaced entirely or if the metal siding and the door can be replaced. If the siding and door can be replaced, what line items should be used?
​
Thank you
​
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Images:
https://ibb.co/h8tXrP0
https://ibb.co/fvBWdJT
https://ibb.co/V9xH1nV
https://ibb.co/D10DPj0
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https://ibb.co/y8S3P4d

Hyatt Melbourne Airport was set to be the only Category 1 in Florida. It was listed as a category 1 in the search portal, hotel’s homepage and booking page for the last few weeks. I had seen the 3,500 points/night rate for quite some time. Now it’s a Category 2… 6,500 points/night. Could they have just made a mistake initially listing it as a Category 1?

"You know, I wasn't exactly a pale pastel. I've been bold colors." - Charisma machine Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) on Newsmax
Editor's note: We will be off on Monday for Memorial Day - see you back here on Tuesday!

Ceiling Sick

What is left to say about the debt ceiling? Unfortunately, too much!

• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers in a letter on Friday that the U.S. government will run out of money on June 5 if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling. This is an update on the projections Yellen had previously given Congress, which were at the time “as soon as” June 1. But the Treasury’s new estimates provide more specificity and more urgency for GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to stop fucking around with the global economy.
  
• President Biden and McCarthy have reported “progress” in the past few days on a deal to lift the debt ceiling, but as of this afternoon, no agreement has been reached, and the two sides seem to still be far apart. Why? Because Republicans refuse to do a clean debt ceiling raise (something they agreed to many times under disgraced former President Trump) without cuts to “discretionary spending.” Medicare and Social Security are off the table, as are cuts to defense spending (come on) which leaves a wide swath of necessary government services that disproportionately aid financially-disadvantaged Americans that Republicans want to hack away at.
  
• We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: Republicans do not actually care about reducing the federal deficit. They famously want to make the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations permanent, which would add trillions of dollars to the deficit year over year. It’s the same “socialism for the rich, and rugged individualism for the poor,” that Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. spoke about so many decades ago.
  

So where do negotiations stand?

• The tentative agreement in the works would raise the debt ceiling for two years (a key White House priority), freeze government spending on domestic programs, but slightly increase(!) military spending, according to sources close to the negotiations. The deal will likely rescind some of the new funding for the IRS (which by the way, was extremely successful and allowed the agency to function properly after years of austerity, which is why conservatives hate it) but House conservatives are split on their support for the deal. House Democrats, by contrast, have been remarkably united in their approach to the deal, maintaining the position that the Biden administration started with, which is that it would not negotiate with economic terrorists.
  
• The clown car that is the far-right House Freedom Caucus seems to be upset with the deal too, calling it “watered-down” because I guess it doesn’t hurt poor people to the extent they wish to see. Even as avaricious as McCarthy’s current deal seems to be, divided support in his caucus could ultimately cost him the Speakership, which, you may recall, he only achieved after a record 15 votes.
  

Late Friday, President Biden said a deal to resolve the debt ceiling crisis was “very close” at hand. A “compromise” may be able to be achieved, but it seems that no one would be happy about it, because any compromise involves Republicans getting the spending cuts targeted at essential programs that they want, and weakening the IRS. It seems that the majority of concessions made will be from the White House, because Republicans would rather start a global economic disaster than see anyone except the wealthy receive government subsidies. Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Look No Further Than Crooked Media

A reminder that Crooked Media Read’s first book Mobility by Lydia Kiesling is now available for pre-sale!!
Moving between Houston, Athens, and Baku, Mobility explores themes of class, power, politics, and desire through the life of one unforgettable character, Bunny Glenn. Both an entertaining coming-of-age story and an indictment of capitalism, Mobility uses fiction’s power to illuminate the way a life is shaped by its context.
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Under The Radar

On Thursday night, the Indiana state Medical Licensing Board voted to reprimand Indianapolis physician Dr. Caitlin Bernard for “violating a patient’s privacy” when she told a reporter last year that she performed an abortion on a 10-year-old rape victim from neighboring Ohio, where the state’s laws prohibited the girl from getting an abortion in the wake of the Dobbs decision. However, the board rejected accusations from Indiana’s Republican Attorney General Todd Rokita that Dr. Bernard violated state law by not reporting the child abuse to Indiana authorities, nor did they agree to Rokita’s request to suspend her medical license. Dr. Bernard has been consistent in the defense of her actions, and she told the board that she did indeed follow Indiana’s reporting requirements and hospital policy by reporting the child abuse to the hospital social workers. The girl’s rape was already being investigated by Ohio authorities. Conservative news outlets and Republican politicians falsely accused Bernard of fabricating the story, until a 27-year-old man in Columbus, OH was charged with the rape. Dr. Bernard’s attorneys maintained that she gave no identifying information about the girl that would have violated privacy laws. Thursday’s hearing lasted for 13 hours, and Bernard rejected the claim that her public discussion of a case (in which she included no identifying information) led to the misconduct allegations, saying, “I think if the attorney general, Todd Rokita, had not chosen to make this his political stunt we wouldn’t be here today.”

What Else?

A GOP-led committee in the Texas House of Representatives recommended that state attorney general and fellow Republican Ken Paxton be impeached on Thursday for a wide range of abuses of office. Paxton denounced the proceedings as “political theater” and invited his supporters to protest at the state Capitol tomorrow. January 6: Texas edition!
The Nixon Administration’s former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger will turn 100 years old this weekend. 150,000 Cambodians will not. He is the last surviving member of Richard Nixon’s cabinet.
A Russian missile hit a psychiatric clinic and a veterinary clinic in eastern Ukraine on Friday, killing two people and wounding 30.
The British Cycling Federation has barred transgender women from competing in the women’s category, and the “open” category will allow male athletes, transgender women and men, and non-binary cyclists.
President of Microsoft Brad Smith said that his biggest concern regarding artificial intelligence is deep fakes, or realistic but false content, particularly videos.
A South Carolina circuit court judge temporarily halted the state’s six-week abortion ban from going into effect until it is reviewed by the state Supreme Court.

What In The World?

In the West Bank, more than three million Palestinians live under Israeli military occupation, where deadly raids have long been carried out with regularity. But now, under the most right-wing government in Israeli history, incursions have increasingly been executed during the day and in densely-populated urban areas. According to the United Nations, 108 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as of May 15, twice as many as at the same point last year, and at least 19 were children. One of the most shocking recent attacks occurred on March 16, just days before the start of the holy month of Ramadan in the city of Jenin. That day, undercover Israeli forces carried out an operation targeting two Palestinian militants, but also killed 14-year-old Omar Awadin, who was one of at least 16 Palestinian civilians in the area, none of whom were armed. After The Washington Post viewed footage from multiple area security cameras, the raid appears to violate the international ban on extrajudicial killings. The Post shared its findings with international law experts, all of whom said the raid qualifies as a violation of extrajudicial killing prohibitions.

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Light At The End Of The Email

On Friday, the United States Drug Enforcement Administration stripped Morris & Dickinson Co.—one of the country’s largest drug distributors—of its license to sell highly-addictive painkillers after an investigation determined that the company chose not to flag thousands of suspicious orders when the opioid crisis was ravaging swaths of America.
Jessica Watkins, a member of the far-right Oath Keepers, was sentenced to eight and a half years in prison on Friday for her role in the January 6 insurrection.
Another member of the Oath Keepers, Kenneth Harrelson, was sentenced to four years in prison today. At least all of his buddies will be there with him!

Enjoy

limp brittzkit on Twitter: "Me and my friends watching the full length Barbie trailer"

From my scattered memory, the first chapter goes like the silver-haired ML (not sure if he is?) is a priest or holding a very high position at a prestigious church. He appears to be a gentleman with a kind soul, but beneath the "polite" facade, he is very chaotic and wild, bordering on murderous, I think he slaughtered a few people (his enemies and not innocent people, I hope), FL get involved and witnessed the brutal scene. Since his image is spotless, the guy cannot afford to let this sensitive info got leaked, threatened to off her head, FL played along and faked being dumb, he let her off the hook but she was under his radar. FL also works at the same church (not sure, I remember that she wore a nun outfit?) she knows he is a crazy person, therefore trying hard not but ends up getting tangled accidentally.
That's all I can recollect. It's been a long while since I last read it. Hopefully, many chapters have been updated. Can someone help me find the title? I really appreciate it. Thank you!

Whenever I try to start my container I get this error:
2023-05-25T16:39:46Z ERROR VPN settings: provider settings: server selection: for VPN service provider mullvad: the city specified is not valid: value is not one of the possible choices: value chicago il, choices available are Adelaide, Amsterdam, Ashburn VA, Athens, Atlanta GA, Auckland, Belgrade, Bogota, Bratislava, Brisbane, Brussels, Bucharest, Budapest, Chicago IL, Chisinau, Copenhagen, Dallas TX, Denver CO, Dubai, Dublin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Gothenburg, Helsinki, Hong Kong, Houston TX, Johannesburg, Lisbon, London, Los Angeles CA, Luxembourg, Madrid, Malmö, Manchester, Marseille, Melbourne, Miami FL, Milan, Montreal, New York NY, Osaka, Oslo, Paris, Perth, Phoenix AZ, Prague, Raleigh NC, Riga, Rome, Salt Lake City UT, San Jose CA, Sao Paulo, Seattle WA, Secaucus NJ, Singapore, Skopje, Sofia, Stavanger, Stockholm, Sydney, Tallinn, Tel Aviv, Tirana, Tokyo, Toronto, Vancouver, Vienna, Warsaw, Zagreb, Zurich
Despite the compose file having:

• SERVER_CITIES=Chicago IL