Draftkings optimizer
DFSports: Strategies and Advice for Playing Daily Fantasy Sports
2012.01.21 01:51 BleedingFromEyes DFSports: Strategies and Advice for Playing Daily Fantasy Sports
all things daily fantasy sports
2023.03.25 17:51 BridgeFourFitDFS UFC Fight Night: Vera vs Sundhagen (3-25-23) Algo Draftkings lineups
Hello all: Last week we all cashed in both cash games and GPP! That makes the Algo cash lineup 11 out of 14 since we started.
I created an algorithm to optimize Draftkings MMA lineups based on Vegas odds instead of expert projections. I release them for free, here:
https://discord.gg/hU33VuDw and on my Twitter:
https://twitter.com/BridgeFourFit I will release final lineups (for cash and GPP contests) around 1pm PST today. Lineup lock is 130pm PST. Hopefully this can help people as a jumping off point. Good luck!
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2023.03.23 17:19 alpha_bionics Football News - Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MA/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only.
Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MA/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OH/OPA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). I’ve played Mike, I’ve played Will, I played Sam, I played in the 4-3, I’ve played in landmark defenses, I’ve played in match defenses, I’ve played in man defenses. . ============================================================= AZ will not pass on the 3 best defense players avail,…Jalen Carter, Chris Gonzalez, or Will Anderson. So, I’m competing to get to the ball every play, that’s the biggest thing, and then obviously, whatever my assignment is, I want to be assignment sound. Across 117 games in the regular season, he totaled 569 tackles, 27 sacks, one safety, one interception, five fumble recoveries, two forced fumbles and two touchdowns. Odds and lines subject to change. See terms at draftkings. com/sportsbook. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void in ONT. 1 pick and we were looking for trade options,” Lynch said, via Cam Inman of the Bay Area News Group. Both Brady and his ex-wife, Gisele Bundchen, had key roles in the company. The US dollar isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on…unless it’s backed by something (a gov’t, gold, etc) that has legitimate value (aka collateral). 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft can bring to the Bay Area. “I feel we’ve studied him forever, back when he was [a potential] No. That seems like it would be too low to select Young, as there are three QB-needy teams in the top four of the draft. DT, CB, or Edge. ———– They won’t have to. One of the rising teams in the NFC last season, the Lions made major upgrades in the secondary with the free agent additions of Sutton, Moseley, Gardner-Johnson. pic. twitter. com/2vNTbnEVkf“My dad’s warming up, and he’s a real rough and rugged guy,” Brown Jr. said. The 2022 draft class of Walker, Abraham Lucas, Charles Cross, Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant gives Seattle reason for optimism with its 2023 draft picks in tow. - Alpha AI
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2023.03.23 05:18 Key-Piece-3206 UPDATED: Sports Betting Arbitrage Guide
Updated March 23, 2023 Originally posted in
lunchmoney Background
This is a common sports betting method that goes over how you can make
$500 per day, risk-free by capitalizing on mispricing in the sports betting market. Although legalization only happened recently, sports betting around the world has seen a significant amount of new sportsbooks starting up every year. This, along with the complexity of adjusting to the supply and demand of bettors means that sportsbooks often have very mispriced odds.
This creates a significant opportunity for people to bet on both possible outcomes of an event and guarantee themselves a profit! Before I show you more, check out my other guide
here, which goes over how to make
$5,000 - $10,000 risk-free by signing up for new user bonuses with various regulated sportsbooks!
*This guide assumes you know the basics of sports betting. If you do not, please follow this
link to find a quick online guide
What is Arbitrage Betting
- Arbitrage betting (arbing) involves betting on both sides of a line at odds that will guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the event
- Because we are placing bets on both sides of an event, this method is risk-free and should be looked at as an investment rather than a gamble!
- Arbitrage betting is like counting cards, it allows you to gain an edge on the house and guarantee yourself a profit!
Example: - Let's say the Bruins play the Rangers and Fanduel has the Bruin's moneyline at -150 while DraftKings has the Rangers moneyline at +200
- By placing a $180 bet on the Bruins moneyline (through Fanduel) and by simultaneously placing a $100 bet on the Rangers moneyline (through Draftkings), we can make a $20 profit, no matter what happens!
- If the Bruins win, we get winnings of $120 and because we bet $100 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $180 stake on the Bruins back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $120, and our initial stake of $180 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- If the Rangers Win, we get winnings of $200 and because we bet $180 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $100 stake on the Rangers back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $200, and our initial stake of $100 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- This would be a 6.7% arb opportunity which is very good and if we bet a larger amount of both sides (say $450 on the Bruins and $250 on the Rangers), we would have a guaranteed profit of $50!
How to Find Arbitrage Opportunities
- Generally speaking, finding arb opportunities like the one above is extremely difficult and time-consuming when doing it manually
- Online software and tools have revolutionized the sports betting game. The differences in odds for any given line can be upwards of 50% which can result in drastically different outcomes for your bet. Using software to screen odds can save you a lot of time and money.
- My favourite tool for arbing is OddsJam, which screens millions of odds per second on hundreds of sportsbooks. Using the OddsJam platform has saved me thousands of dollars and is the reason I was able to make $500 per day when I arbed.
- If you decide to start arbing, using OddsJam is a must and you can use my link and promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)!
- Without software like OddsJam, you will basically never find arb opportunities. If you somehow manage to find one, it will probably be gone before you can blink because you found it 30 seconds slower than OddsJam (most arbs last 30 seconds to ~2 minutes).
- On OddsJam, you can consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities. Assuming you read and completed my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here and made up to $6,437.50 risk-free, and assuming you can double those winnings with your existing bank balances, you'll have a bankroll of $19,312! When I was arbing, I would usually hit a 2.5% daily return, so you can make about $500 per day, risk-free using this strategy! If you don't have that kind of bankroll, you can start out with as little as $1,000!
How to Avoid Account Limits
By arbing, you guarantee a profit for yourself, which guarantees a loss for the sportsbooks, something they are not very fond of. It is important that you read the T&Cs of each sportsbook because many will put certain clauses that target arbers and other undesirable customers.
If you are playing only on regulated sportsbooks in your country, you should never have any problem withdrawing your money unless you do something very wrong. Remember, arbing is legal so this alone will not warrant the sportsbooks to hold your funds.
Below are some tips to stay off the radar of your sportsbook for as long as possible:
1. Round Bets to a Reasonable Number: - If you are betting $98.29 to cover a bet, this looks really odd, instead round up to $100
- If you are betting $935 to cover a bet, this also looks strange so round up to $950 or down to $925
2. Don’t Deposit/Withdraw Frequently: - Most sportsbooks see bettors who try to keep their balance at a certain level ($2,000 for example) as arbers because it indicates they’re sending winnings to the sportsbooks they lost on
3. Stick to Main Markets if you are in it for the Long Haul: - To fly under the radar, avoid betting on alternative markets (especially very alternative markets, for example if the oveunder for a hockey game is 5.5 goals, don’t bet on the 9.5 line)
4. Don’t Make Repeated Bets: - If you find a 10% arb opportunity, don’t keep making $100 bets. If your first one cleared the sportsbooks trading team, take it as a win and move on
5. Bet Only on Major Leagues: - In North America, I would only bet on NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, and International Soccer (World Cup, Euro Cup, UEFA Champions League, and the Big European Leagues)
6. Deposit/Withdraw to One Bank Account: - Many books will accuse you of accepting funding from other people if they see you depositing and withdrawing to multiple bank accounts
- Make sure to only fund your account with your funds from one bank account to avoid confusion with the sportsbook
7. Never Cover Bets on the same Sportsbook - If you initially made a bet on the Rangers to win on Fanduel at +100. Now lets say a bunch of players on the Bruins got injured or traded which moves the Bruins line to +200 on Fanduel.
- Don't bet on the Bruins on Fanduel, even if they have the best odds. Take them on DraftKings, even if the line is only at +180.
- If sportsbooks see you covering bets, they could limit your account because they recognize you as an arber.
By doing all this, you will most likely fly under the radar for a significant amount of time and if you are consistently betting each day, you can make thousands of dollars. For reference, I made almost $20,000 from arbing and about $5,000 from sign-up bonuses and I wish I had this guide when I started!
Tips to Maximize Earnings
1. Keep an Optimal Amount of Funds in Sportsbooks with the Most Arb Opportunities - Sportsbooks like Fanduel, DraftKings, Pointsbet, Pinnacle, BetMGM, Bet365, and Betano all have very competitive odds and consistently pop up when using the OddsJam software
- If you have $5,000 you can spread it across all sportsbooks, don't put $250 into 20 different ones as most of these will provide no arb opportunities. Instead, put $500 into the top 10 books that consistently have the most arb opportunities
2. Take Advantage of Boosts - Since you will be betting in such high volumes, sportsbooks will consistently give you bet credits and boosts to try and retain your business. Make sure to take advantage of these because they can be the most profitable bets you can make per day.
3. Place your First Bet on the Sportsbook that is Heavily Mispriced - If Pointsbet has the KC Chiefs moneyline at +200 when most other books have it at +140, this is a significant mispricing by Pointsbet. If you see that most other books have the Eagles at -160, you should try to bet as much as you can on Pointsbet because this bet is most likely to get stopped by the trading team
- Trading teams take manual action when specific lines start getting an abnormal amount of betting
- If you are able to get a $1,000 bet on KC at +200 (on Pointsbet), you know with certainty that you can cover this on most other books at -160 (on the Eagles)
- Once you are sure you've bet on the sportsbook with the mispricing, then you should bet on the side that has no mispricing because you know your initial bet will go through
Summary
- If you haven't already read my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here
- If you haven't already, sign up for the OddsJam platform here and use my promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)! This software will allow you to screen millions of odds per second to consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities, allowing you to make $500 per day
- Start arbing and track your progress using the built-in OddsJam tracker or use my custom excel sheet in my google drive here
Feel free to comment and ask questions below! Also, let me know if you want me to do any other betting guides!
*This document is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial / investment advice. Please read the T&Cs of each book to make sure you are complicit with their rules and your local regulators' laws. This guide is not intended for real money betting and it is only intended for adults. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER
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2023.03.22 19:01 Key-Piece-3206 Sports Betting Arbitrage Guide
Originally posted in
lunchmoney Background
This is a common sports betting method that goes over how you can make
$500 per day, risk-free by capitalizing on mispricing in the sports betting market. Although legalization only happened recently, sports betting around the world has seen a significant amount of new sportsbooks starting up every year. This, along with the complexity of adjusting to the supply and demand of bettors means that sportsbooks often have very mispriced odds.
This creates a significant opportunity for people to bet on both possible outcomes of an event and guarantee themselves a profit! Before I show you more, check out my other guide
here, which goes over how to make
$5,000 - $10,000 risk-free by signing up for new user bonuses with various regulated sportsbooks!
*This guide assumes you know the basics of sports betting. If you do not, please follow this
link to find a quick online guide
What is Arbitrage Betting
- Arbitrage betting (arbing) involves betting on both sides of a line at odds that will guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the event
- Because we are placing bets on both sides of an event, this method is risk-free and should be looked at as an investment rather than a gamble!
- Arbitrage betting is like counting cards, it allows you to gain an edge on the house and guarantee yourself a profit!
Example: - Let's say the Bruins play the Rangers and Fanduel has the Bruin's moneyline at -150 while DraftKings has the Rangers moneyline at +200
- By placing a $180 bet on the Bruins moneyline (through Fanduel) and by simultaneously placing a $100 bet on the Rangers moneyline (through Draftkings), we can make a $20 profit, no matter what happens!
- If the Bruins win, we get winnings of $120 and because we bet $100 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $180 stake on the Bruins back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $120, and our initial stake of $180 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- If the Rangers Win, we get winnings of $200 and because we bet $180 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $100 stake on the Rangers back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $200, and our initial stake of $100 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- This would be a 6.7% arb opportunity which is very good and if we bet a larger amount of both sides (say $450 on the Bruins and $250 on the Rangers), we would have a guaranteed profit of $50!
How to Find Arbitrage Opportunities
- Generally speaking, finding arb opportunities like the one above is extremely difficult and time-consuming when doing it manually
- Online software and tools have revolutionized the sports betting game. The differences in odds for any given line can be upwards of 50% which can result in drastically different outcomes for your bet. Using software to screen odds can save you a lot of time and money.
- My favourite tool for arbing is OddsJam, which screens millions of odds per second on hundreds of sportsbooks. Using the OddsJam platform has saved me thousands of dollars and is the reason I was able to make $500 per day when I arbed.
- If you decide to start arbing, using OddsJam is a must and you can use my link and promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)!
- Without software like OddsJam, you will basically never find arb opportunities. If you somehow manage to find one, it will probably be gone before you can blink because you found it 30 seconds slower than OddsJam (most arbs last 30 seconds to ~2 minutes).
- On OddsJam, you can consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities. Assuming you read and completed my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here and made up to $6,437.50 risk-free, and assuming you can double those winnings with your existing bank balances, you'll have a bankroll of $19,312! When I was arbing, I would usually hit a 2.5% daily return, so you can make about $500 per day, risk-free using this strategy! If you don't have that kind of bankroll, you can start out with as little as $1,000!
How to Avoid Account Limits
By arbing, you guarantee a profit for yourself, which guarantees a loss for the sportsbooks, something they are not very fond of. It is important that you read the T&Cs of each sportsbook because many will put certain clauses that target arbers and other undesirable customers.
If you are playing only on regulated sportsbooks in your country, you should never have any problem withdrawing your money unless you do something very wrong. Remember, arbing is legal so this alone will not warrant the sportsbooks to hold your funds.
Below are some tips to stay off the radar of your sportsbook for as long as possible:
1. Round Bets to a Reasonable Number: - If you are betting $98.29 to cover a bet, this looks really odd, instead round up to $100
- If you are betting $935 to cover a bet, this also looks strange so round up to $950 or down to $925
2. Don’t Deposit/Withdraw Frequently: - Most sportsbooks see bettors who try to keep their balance at a certain level ($2,000 for example) as arbers because it indicates they’re sending winnings to the sportsbooks they lost on
3. Stick to Main Markets if you are in it for the Long Haul: - To fly under the radar, avoid betting on alternative markets (especially very alternative markets, for example if the oveunder for a hockey game is 5.5 goals, don’t bet on the 9.5 line)
4. Don’t Make Repeated Bets: - If you find a 10% arb opportunity, don’t keep making $100 bets. If your first one cleared the sportsbooks trading team, take it as a win and move on
5. Bet Only on Major Leagues: - In North America, I would only bet on NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, and International Soccer (World Cup, Euro Cup, UEFA Champions League, and the Big European Leagues)
6. Deposit/Withdraw to One Bank Account: - Many books will accuse you of accepting funding from other people if they see you depositing and withdrawing to multiple bank accounts
- Make sure to only fund your account with your funds from one bank account to avoid confusion with the sportsbook
7. Never Cover Bets on the same Sportsbook - If you initially made a bet on the Rangers to win on Fanduel at +100. Now lets say a bunch of players on the Bruins got injured or traded which moves the Bruins line to +200 on Fanduel.
- Don't bet on the Bruins on Fanduel, even if they have the best odds. Take them on DraftKings, even if the line is only at +180.
- If sportsbooks see you covering bets, they could limit your account because they recognize you as an arber.
By doing all this, you will most likely fly under the radar for a significant amount of time and if you are consistently betting each day, you can make thousands of dollars. For reference, I made almost $20,000 from arbing and about $5,000 from sign-up bonuses and I wish I had this guide when I started!
Tips to Maximize Earnings
1. Keep an Optimal Amount of Funds in Sportsbooks with the Most Arb Opportunities - Sportsbooks like Fanduel, DraftKings, Pointsbet, Pinnacle, BetMGM, Bet365, and Betano all have very competitive odds and consistently pop up when using the OddsJam software
- If you have $5,000 you can spread it across all sportsbooks, don't put $250 into 20 different ones as most of these will provide no arb opportunities. Instead, put $500 into the top 10 books that consistently have the most arb opportunities
2. Take Advantage of Boosts - Since you will be betting in such high volumes, sportsbooks will consistently give you bet credits and boosts to try and retain your business. Make sure to take advantage of these because they can be the most profitable bets you can make per day.
3. Place your First Bet on the Sportsbook that is Heavily Mispriced - If Pointsbet has the KC Chiefs moneyline at +200 when most other books have it at +140, this is a significant mispricing by Pointsbet. If you see that most other books have the Eagles at -160, you should try to bet as much as you can on Pointsbet because this bet is most likely to get stopped by the trading team
- Trading teams take manual action when specific lines start getting an abnormal amount of betting
- If you are able to get a $1,000 bet on KC at +200 (on Pointsbet), you know with certainty that you can cover this on most other books at -160 (on the Eagles)
- Once you are sure you've bet on the sportsbook with the mispricing, then you should bet on the side that has no mispricing because you know your initial bet will go through
Summary
- If you haven't already read my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here
- If you haven't already, sign up for the OddsJam platform here and use my promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)! This software will allow you to screen millions of odds per second to consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities, allowing you to make $500 per day
- Start arbing and track your progress using the built-in OddsJam tracker or use my custom excel sheet in my google drive here
Feel free to comment and ask questions below! Also, let me know if you want me to do any other betting guides!
*This document is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial / investment advice. Please read the T&Cs of each book to make sure you are complicit with their rules and your local regulators' laws. This guide is not intended for real money betting and it is only intended for adults. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER
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2023.03.21 19:26 Key-Piece-3206 Sports Betting Arbitrage Guide
Originally posted in
lunchmoney Background
This is a common sports betting method that goes over how you can make
$500 per day, risk-free by capitalizing on mispricing in the sports betting market. Although legalization only happened recently, sports betting around the world has seen a significant amount of new sportsbooks starting up every year. This, along with the complexity of adjusting to the supply and demand of bettors means that sportsbooks often have very mispriced odds.
This creates a significant opportunity for people to bet on both possible outcomes of an event and guarantee themselves a profit! Before I show you more, check out my other guide
here, which goes over how to make
$5,000 - $10,000 risk-free by signing up for new user bonuses with various regulated sportsbooks!
*This guide assumes you know the basics of sports betting. If you do not, please follow this
link to find a quick online guide
What is Arbitrage Betting
- Arbitrage betting (arbing) involves betting on both sides of a line at odds that will guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the event
- Because we are placing bets on both sides of an event, this method is risk-free and should be looked at as an investment rather than a gamble!
- Arbitrage betting is like counting cards, it allows you to gain an edge on the house and guarantee yourself a profit!
Example: - Let's say the Bruins play the Rangers and Fanduel has the Bruin's moneyline at -150 while DraftKings has the Rangers moneyline at +200
- By placing a $180 bet on the Bruins moneyline (through Fanduel) and by simultaneously placing a $100 bet on the Rangers moneyline (through Draftkings), we can make a $20 profit, no matter what happens!
- If the Bruins win, we get winnings of $120 and because we bet $100 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $180 stake on the Bruins back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $120, and our initial stake of $180 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- If the Rangers Win, we get winnings of $200 and because we bet $180 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $100 stake on the Rangers back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $200, and our initial stake of $100 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- This would be a 6.7% arb opportunity which is very good and if we bet a larger amount of both sides (say $450 on the Bruins and $250 on the Rangers), we would have a guaranteed profit of $50!
How to Find Arbitrage Opportunities
- Generally speaking, finding arb opportunities like the one above is extremely difficult and time-consuming when doing it manually
- Online software and tools have revolutionized the sports betting game. The differences in odds for any given line can be upwards of 50% which can result in drastically different outcomes for your bet. Using software to screen odds can save you a lot of time and money.
- My favourite tool for arbing is OddsJam, which screens millions of odds per second on hundreds of sportsbooks. Using the OddsJam platform has saved me thousands of dollars and is the reason I was able to make $500 per day when I arbed.
- If you decide to start arbing, using OddsJam is a must and you can use my link and promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)!
- Without software like OddsJam, you will basically never find arb opportunities. If you somehow manage to find one, it will probably be gone before you can blink because you found it 30 seconds slower than OddsJam (most arbs last 30 seconds to ~2 minutes).
- On OddsJam, you can consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities. Assuming you read and completed my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here and made up to $6,437.50 risk-free, and assuming you can double those winnings with your existing bank balances, you'll have a bankroll of $19,312! When I was arbing, I would usually hit a 2.5% daily return, so you can make about $500 per day, risk-free using this strategy! If you don't have that kind of bankroll, you can start out with as little as $1,000!
How to Avoid Account Limits
By arbing, you guarantee a profit for yourself, which guarantees a loss for the sportsbooks, something they are not very fond of. It is important that you read the T&Cs of each sportsbook because many will put certain clauses that target arbers and other undesirable customers.
If you are playing only on regulated sportsbooks in your country, you should never have any problem withdrawing your money unless you do something very wrong. Remember, arbing is legal so this alone will not warrant the sportsbooks to hold your funds.
Below are some tips to stay off the radar of your sportsbook for as long as possible:
1. Round Bets to a Reasonable Number: - If you are betting $98.29 to cover a bet, this looks really odd, instead round up to $100
- If you are betting $935 to cover a bet, this also looks strange so round up to $950 or down to $925
2. Don’t Deposit/Withdraw Frequently: - Most sportsbooks see bettors who try to keep their balance at a certain level ($2,000 for example) as arbers because it indicates they’re sending winnings to the sportsbooks they lost on
3. Stick to Main Markets if you are in it for the Long Haul: - To fly under the radar, avoid betting on alternative markets (especially very alternative markets, for example if the oveunder for a hockey game is 5.5 goals, don’t bet on the 9.5 line)
4. Don’t Make Repeated Bets: - If you find a 10% arb opportunity, don’t keep making $100 bets. If your first one cleared the sportsbooks trading team, take it as a win and move on
5. Bet Only on Major Leagues: - In North America, I would only bet on NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, and International Soccer (World Cup, Euro Cup, UEFA Champions League, and the Big European Leagues)
6. Deposit/Withdraw to One Bank Account: - Many books will accuse you of accepting funding from other people if they see you depositing and withdrawing to multiple bank accounts
- Make sure to only fund your account with your funds from one bank account to avoid confusion with the sportsbook
7. Never Cover Bets on the same Sportsbook - If you initially made a bet on the Rangers to win on Fanduel at +100. Now lets say a bunch of players on the Bruins got injured or traded which moves the Bruins line to +200 on Fanduel.
- Don't bet on the Bruins on Fanduel, even if they have the best odds. Take them on DraftKings, even if the line is only at +180.
- If sportsbooks see you covering bets, they could limit your account because they recognize you as an arber.
By doing all this, you will most likely fly under the radar for a significant amount of time and if you are consistently betting each day, you can make thousands of dollars. For reference, I made almost $20,000 from arbing and about $5,000 from sign-up bonuses and I wish I had this guide when I started!
Tips to Maximize Earnings
1. Keep an Optimal Amount of Funds in Sportsbooks with the Most Arb Opportunities - Sportsbooks like Fanduel, DraftKings, Pointsbet, Pinnacle, BetMGM, Bet365, and Betano all have very competitive odds and consistently pop up when using the OddsJam software
- If you have $5,000 you can spread it across all sportsbooks, don't put $250 into 20 different ones as most of these will provide no arb opportunities. Instead, put $500 into the top 10 books that consistently have the most arb opportunities
2. Take Advantage of Boosts - Since you will be betting in such high volumes, sportsbooks will consistently give you bet credits and boosts to try and retain your business. Make sure to take advantage of these because they can be the most profitable bets you can make per day.
3. Place your First Bet on the Sportsbook that is Heavily Mispriced - If Pointsbet has the KC Chiefs moneyline at +200 when most other books have it at +140, this is a significant mispricing by Pointsbet. If you see that most other books have the Eagles at -160, you should try to bet as much as you can on Pointsbet because this bet is most likely to get stopped by the trading team
- Trading teams take manual action when specific lines start getting an abnormal amount of betting
- If you are able to get a $1,000 bet on KC at +200 (on Pointsbet), you know with certainty that you can cover this on most other books at -160 (on the Eagles)
- Once you are sure you've bet on the sportsbook with the mispricing, then you should bet on the side that has no mispricing because you know your initial bet will go through
Summary
- If you haven't already read my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here
- If you haven't already, sign up for the OddsJam platform here and use my promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)! This software will allow you to screen millions of odds per second to consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities, allowing you to make $500 per day
- Start arbing and track your progress using the built-in OddsJam tracker or use my custom excel sheet in my google drive here
Feel free to comment and ask questions below! Also, let me know if you want me to do any other betting guides!
*This document is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial / investment advice. Please read the T&Cs of each book to make sure you are complicit with their rules and your local regulators' laws. This guide is not intended for real money betting and it is only intended for adults. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER
submitted by
Key-Piece-3206 to
matchedbetting [link] [comments]
2023.03.20 21:48 Key-Piece-3206 Arbitrage Betting Guide
Originally posted in
lunchmoney Background
This is a common sports betting method that goes over how you can make
$500 per day, risk-free by capitalizing on mispricing in the sports betting market. Although legalization only happened recently, sports betting around the world has seen a significant amount of new sportsbooks starting up every year. This, along with the complexity of adjusting to the supply and demand of bettors means that sportsbooks often have very mispriced odds.
This creates a significant opportunity for people to bet on both possible outcomes of an event and guarantee themselves a profit! Before I show you more, check out my other guide
here, which goes over how to make
$5,000 - $10,000 risk-free by signing up for new user bonuses with various regulated sportsbooks!
*This guide assumes you know the basics of sports betting. If you do not, please follow this
link to find a quick online guide
What is Arbitrage Betting
- Arbitrage betting (arbing) involves betting on both sides of a line at odds that will guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the event
- Because we are placing bets on both sides of an event, this method is risk-free and should be looked at as an investment rather than a gamble!
- Arbitrage betting is like counting cards, it allows you to gain an edge on the house and guarantee yourself a profit!
Example: - Let's say the Bruins play the Rangers and Fanduel has the Bruin's moneyline at -150 while DraftKings has the Rangers moneyline at +200
- By placing a $180 bet on the Bruins moneyline (through Fanduel) and by simultaneously placing a $100 bet on the Rangers moneyline (through Draftkings), we can make a $20 profit, no matter what happens!
- If the Bruins win, we get winnings of $120 and because we bet $100 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $180 stake on the Bruins back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $120, and our initial stake of $180 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- If the Rangers Win, we get winnings of $200 and because we bet $180 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $100 stake on the Rangers back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $200, and our initial stake of $100 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- This would be a 6.7% arb opportunity which is very good and if we bet a larger amount of both sides (say $450 on the Bruins and $250 on the Rangers), we would have a guaranteed profit of $50!
How to Find Arbitrage Opportunities
- Generally speaking, finding arb opportunities like the one above is extremely difficult and time-consuming when doing it manually
- Online software and tools have revolutionized the sports betting game. The differences in odds for any given line can be upwards of 50% which can result in drastically different outcomes for your bet. Using software to screen odds can save you a lot of time and money.
- My favourite tool for arbing is OddsJam, which screens millions of odds per second on hundreds of sportsbooks. Using the OddsJam platform has saved me thousands of dollars and is the reason I was able to make $500 per day when I arbed.
- If you decide to start arbing, using OddsJam is a must and you can use my link and promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)!
- Without software like OddsJam, you will basically never find arb opportunities. If you somehow manage to find one, it will probably be gone before you can blink because you found it 30 seconds slower than OddsJam (most arbs last 30 seconds to ~2 minutes).
- On OddsJam, you can consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities. Assuming you read and completed my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here and made up to $6,437.50 risk-free, and assuming you can double those winnings with your existing bank balances, you'll have a bankroll of $19,312! When I was arbing, I would usually hit a 2.5% daily return, so you can make about $500 per day, risk-free using this strategy! If you don't have that kind of bankroll, you can start out with as little as $1,000!
How to Avoid Account Limits
By arbing, you guarantee a profit for yourself, which guarantees a loss for the sportsbooks, something they are not very fond of. It is important that you read the T&Cs of each sportsbook because many will put certain clauses that target arbers and other undesirable customers.
If you are playing only on regulated sportsbooks in your country, you should never have any problem withdrawing your money unless you do something very wrong. Remember, arbing is legal so this alone will not warrant the sportsbooks to hold your funds.
Below are some tips to stay off the radar of your sportsbook for as long as possible:
1. Round Bets to a Reasonable Number: - If you are betting $98.29 to cover a bet, this looks really odd, instead round up to $100
- If you are betting $935 to cover a bet, this also looks strange so round up to $950 or down to $925
2. Don’t Deposit/Withdraw Frequently: - Most sportsbooks see bettors who try to keep their balance at a certain level ($2,000 for example) as arbers because it indicates they’re sending winnings to the sportsbooks they lost on
3. Stick to Main Markets if you are in it for the Long Haul: - To fly under the radar, avoid betting on alternative markets (especially very alternative markets, for example if the oveunder for a hockey game is 5.5 goals, don’t bet on the 9.5 line)
4. Don’t Make Repeated Bets: - If you find a 10% arb opportunity, don’t keep making $100 bets. If your first one cleared the sportsbooks trading team, take it as a win and move on
5. Bet Only on Major Leagues: - In North America, I would only bet on NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, and International Soccer (World Cup, Euro Cup, UEFA Champions League, and the Big European Leagues)
6. Deposit/Withdraw to One Bank Account: - Many books will accuse you of accepting funding from other people if they see you depositing and withdrawing to multiple bank accounts
- Make sure to only fund your account with your funds from one bank account to avoid confusion with the sportsbook
7. Never Cover Bets on the same Sportsbook - If you initially made a bet on the Rangers to win on Fanduel at +100. Now lets say a bunch of players on the Bruins got injured or traded which moves the Bruins line to +200 on Fanduel.
- Don't bet on the Bruins on Fanduel, even if they have the best odds. Take them on DraftKings, even if the line is only at +180.
- If sportsbooks see you covering bets, they could limit your account because they recognize you as an arber.
By doing all this, you will most likely fly under the radar for a significant amount of time and if you are consistently betting each day, you can make thousands of dollars. For reference, I made almost $20,000 from arbing and about $5,000 from sign-up bonuses and I wish I had this guide when I started!
Tips to Maximize Earnings
1. Keep an Optimal Amount of Funds in Sportsbooks with the Most Arb Opportunities - Sportsbooks like Fanduel, DraftKings, Pointsbet, Pinnacle, BetMGM, Bet365, and Betano all have very competitive odds and consistently pop up when using the OddsJam software
- If you have $5,000 you can spread it across all sportsbooks, don't put $250 into 20 different ones as most of these will provide no arb opportunities. Instead, put $500 into the top 10 books that consistently have the most arb opportunities
2. Take Advantage of Boosts - Since you will be betting in such high volumes, sportsbooks will consistently give you bet credits and boosts to try and retain your business. Make sure to take advantage of these because they can be the most profitable bets you can make per day.
3. Place your First Bet on the Sportsbook that is Heavily Mispriced - If Pointsbet has the KC Chiefs moneyline at +200 when most other books have it at +140, this is a significant mispricing by Pointsbet. If you see that most other books have the Eagles at -160, you should try to bet as much as you can on Pointsbet because this bet is most likely to get stopped by the trading team
- Trading teams take manual action when specific lines start getting an abnormal amount of betting
- If you are able to get a $1,000 bet on KC at +200 (on Pointsbet), you know with certainty that you can cover this on most other books at -160 (on the Eagles)
- Once you are sure you've bet on the sportsbook with the mispricing, then you should bet on the side that has no mispricing because you know your initial bet will go through
Summary
- If you haven't already read my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here
- If you haven't already, sign up for the OddsJam platform here and use my promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)! This software will allow you to screen millions of odds per second to consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities, allowing you to make $500 per day
- Start arbing and track your progress using the built-in OddsJam tracker or use my custom excel sheet in my google drive here
Feel free to comment and ask questions below! Also, let me know if you want me to do any other betting guides!
*This document is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial / investment advice. Please read the T&Cs of each book to make sure you are complicit with their rules and your local regulators' laws. This guide is not intended for real money betting and it is only intended for adults. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER
submitted by
Key-Piece-3206 to
sportsbetting [link] [comments]
2023.03.17 11:01 Key-Piece-3206 Sports Betting Arbitrage Guide
Background
This is a verified method that goes over how you can make
$500 per day, risk-free by capitalizing on mispricing in the sports betting market. Although legalization only happened recently, sports betting around the world has seen a significant amount of new sportsbooks starting up every year. This, along with the complexity of adjusting to the supply and demand of bettors means that sportsbooks often have very mispriced odds.
This creates a significant opportunity for people to bet on both possible outcomes of an event and guarantee themselves a profit! Before I show you more, check out my other guide
here, which goes over how to make
$5,000 - $10,000 risk-free by signing up for new user bonuses with various regulated sportsbooks!
*This guide assumes you know the basics of sports betting. If you do not, please follow this
link to find a quick online guide
What is Arbitrage Betting
- Arbitrage betting (arbing) involves betting on both sides of a line at odds that will guarantee a profit no matter the outcome of the event
- Because we are placing bets on both sides of an event, this method is risk-free and should be looked at as an investment rather than a gamble!
- Arbitrage betting is like counting cards, it allows you to gain an edge on the house and guarantee yourself a profit!
Example: - Let's say the Bruins play the Rangers and Fanduel has the Bruin's moneyline at -150 while DraftKings has the Rangers moneyline at +200
- By placing a $180 bet on the Bruins moneyline (through Fanduel) and by simultaneously placing a $100 bet on the Rangers moneyline (through Draftkings), we can make a $20 profit, no matter what happens!
- If the Bruins win, we get winnings of $120 and because we bet $100 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $180 stake on the Bruins back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $120, and our initial stake of $180 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- If the Rangers Win, we get winnings of $200 and because we bet $180 on the Rangers (who lost), we get a $20 profit. We also get our initial $100 stake on the Rangers back since they won
- Another way to look at is we go from having $280 ($180 on Fanduel and $100 on Draftkings) to having winnings of $200, and our initial stake of $100 totaling $300. Overall, a $20 profit!
- This would be a 6.7% arb opportunity which is very good and if we bet a larger amount of both sides (say $450 on the Bruins and $250 on the Rangers), we would have a guaranteed profit of $50!
How to Find Arbitrage Opportunities
- Generally speaking, finding arb opportunities like the one above is extremely difficult and time-consuming when doing it manually
- Online software and tools have revolutionized the sports betting game. The differences in odds for any given line can be upwards of 50% which can result in drastically different outcomes for your bet. Using software to screen odds can save you a lot of time and money.
- My favourite tool for arbing is OddsJam, which screens millions of odds per second on hundreds of sportsbooks. Using the OddsJam platform has saved me thousands of dollars and is the reason I was able to make $500 per day when I arbed.
- If you decide to start arbing, using OddsJam is a must and you can use my link and promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)!
- Without software like OddsJam, you will basically never find arb opportunities. If you somehow manage to find one, it will probably be gone before you can blink because you found it 30 seconds slower than OddsJam (most arbs last 30 seconds to ~2 minutes).
- On OddsJam, you can consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities. Assuming you read and completed my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here and made up to $5,995 risk-free, and assuming you can double those winnings with your existing bank balances, you'll have a bankroll of ~$18,000! When I was arbing, I would usually hit a 2.5% daily return, so you can make about $500 per day, risk-free using this strategy! If you don't have that kind of bankroll, you can start out with as little as $1,000!
How to Avoid Account Limits
By arbing, you guarantee a profit for yourself, which guarantees a loss for the sportsbooks, something they are not very fond of. It is important that you read the T&Cs of each sportsbook because many will put certain clauses that target arbers and other undesirable customers.
If you are playing only on regulated sportsbooks in your country, you should never have any problem withdrawing your money unless you do something very wrong. Remember, arbing is legal so this alone will not warrant the sportsbooks to hold your funds.
Below are some tips to stay off the radar of your sportsbook for as long as possible:
1. Round Bets to a Reasonable Number: - If you are betting $98.29 to cover a bet, this looks really odd, instead round up to $100
- If you are betting $935 to cover a bet, this also looks strange so round up to $950 or down to $925
2. Don’t Deposit/Withdraw Frequently: - Most sportsbooks see bettors who try to keep their balance at a certain level ($2,000 for example) as arbers because it indicates they’re sending winnings to the sportsbooks they lost on
3. Stick to Main Markets if you are in it for the Long Haul: - To fly under the radar, avoid betting on alternative markets (especially very alternative markets, for example if the oveunder for a hockey game is 5.5 goals, don’t bet on the 9.5 line)
4. Don’t Make Repeated Bets: - If you find a 10% arb opportunity, don’t keep making $100 bets. If your first one cleared the sportsbooks trading team, take it as a win and move on
5. Bet Only on Major Leagues: - In North America, I would only bet on NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, and International Soccer (World Cup, Euro Cup, UEFA Champions League, and the Big European Leagues)
6. Deposit/Withdraw to One Bank Account: - Many books will accuse you of accepting funding from other people if they see you depositing and withdrawing to multiple bank accounts
- Make sure to only fund your account with your funds from one bank account to avoid confusion with the sportsbook
7. Never Cover Bets on the same Sportsbook - If you initially made a bet on the Rangers to win on Fanduel at +100. Now lets say a bunch of players on the Bruins got injured or traded which moves the Bruins line to +200 on Fanduel.
- Don't bet on the Bruins on Fanduel, even if they have the best odds. Take them on DraftKings, even if the line is only at +180.
- If sportsbooks see you covering bets, they could limit your account because they recognize you as an arber.
By doing all this, you will most likely fly under the radar for a significant amount of time and if you are consistently betting each day, you can make thousands of dollars. For reference, I made almost $20,000 from arbing and about $5,000 from sign-up bonuses and I wish I had this guide when I started!
Tips to Maximize Earnings
1. Keep an Optimal Amount of Funds in Sportsbooks with the Most Arb Opportunities - Sportsbooks like Fanduel, DraftKings, Pointsbet, Pinnacle, BetMGM, Bet365, and Betano all have very competitive odds and consistently pop up when using the OddsJam software
- If you have $5,000 you can spread it across all sportsbooks, don't put $250 into 20 different ones as most of these will provide no arb opportunities. Instead, put $500 into the top 10 books that consistently have the most arb opportunities
2. Take Advantage of Boosts - Since you will be betting in such high volumes, sportsbooks will consistently give you bet credits and boosts to try and retain your business. Make sure to take advantage of these because they can be the most profitable bets you can make per day.
3. Place your First Bet on the Sportsbook that is Heavily Mispriced - If Pointsbet has the KC Chiefs moneyline at +200 when most other books have it at +140, this is a significant mispricing by Pointsbet. If you see that most other books have the Eagles at -160, you should try to bet as much as you can on Pointsbet because this bet is most likely to get stopped by the trading team
- Trading teams take manual action when specific lines start getting an abnormal amount of betting
- If you are able to get a $1,000 bet on KC at +200 (on Pointsbet), you know with certainty that you can cover this on most other books at -160 (on the Eagles)
- Once you are sure you've bet on the sportsbook with the mispricing, then you should bet on the side that has no mispricing because you know your initial bet will go through
Summary
- If you haven't already read my Sports Betting Bonus Guide here
- If you haven't already, sign up for the OddsJam platform here and use my promo code “Firebet” at checkout for 25% lifetime discount (to ensure you get the discount, press on my link before signing up and enter the promo code at checkout)! This software will allow you to screen millions of odds per second to consistently find 1.5% - 5.0% arb opportunities, allowing you to make $500 per day
- Start arbing and track your progress using the built-in OddsJam tracker or use my custom excel sheet in my google drive here
Feel free to comment and ask questions below! Also, let me know if you want me to do any other betting guides!
*This document is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial / investment advice. Please read the T&Cs of each book to make sure you are complicit with their rules and your local regulators' laws. This guide is not intended for real money betting and it is only intended for adults. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER
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2023.03.15 12:03 remote-enthusiast Collection of 99 remote jobs - (non)tech
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2023.03.11 18:11 BridgeFourFitDFS UFC Fight Night Yan vs. Dvalishvili (3/11/23 12pm PST) Draftkings Algo lineups
Hello all - I run an algorithm that produces a optimal lineups for Draftkings for both GPP and Cash contests. It optimizes not based on expert projections but on Vegas odds, using the wisdom of the crowd instead. I've posted early look lineups on my discord channel:
https://discord.gg/rt2nDQNf and will update at 11am PST and then right before lineups lock. It's all free, no strings attached, I do it for fun. And hopefully it helps a few people out!
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2023.03.04 21:41 BridgeFourFitDFS UFC 285 Draftkings Algo Lineups
Every event I use derived win %'s based on Vegas odds (and a few other factors), to produce the optimal lineup based on Draftkings salaries. In the past 12 events, the GPP algo lineup has had two 6-0 results, and the Cash lineup has finished in the money 9/12 times.
I post both a GPP lineup and Cash lineup, for free, in my Discord here:
https://discord.gg/rt2nDQNf Early look lineups are up now, and I will post the final lineups at 130pm PST (an hour before they lock).
It might serve as a good jumping off point for you sharps out there. Good luck and have fun, and let's see if there is a god and Jon Jones loses consciousness tonight.
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2023.02.21 13:31 upbstock $DKNG
DraftKings price target raised to $28 from $23 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on DraftKings to $28 from $23 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after management raised its 2023 revenue/EBITDA outlook by 2%/$125M on higher holds, better customer retention, improving marketing efficacy and headcount optimization. The firm sees further profitability upside on lower CPAs in new markets and potential to improve holds outside of football.
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2023.02.17 16:04 AvRageJoeCool News Catalyst Round-Up: $DCFC $JSPR $EOSE $EBET $SBET
Recap of
news helping trigger momentum for a few penny stocks:
DCFC Stock News
This week Tritium gave several updates, including selling more than 300 EV fast chargers to a Danish fuel retailer, OK. In addition, while other companies are slashing jobs, Tritium announced it would add more than 250 to its workforce in Tennessee. At peak capacity, the facility is expected to produce up to 30,000 units annually.
JSPR Stock News
This week Jasper announced that it presents data supporting its ongoing briquilimab development. CEO Ronald Martell explained, “As we focus the development of briquilimab on treating chronic mast cell diseases and as a conditioning agent for stem cell transplants addressing rare diseases, we believe that the data presented at the Transplantation & Cellular Therapy Meetings of ASTCT and CIBMTR provides the additional mechanistic and clinical proof-of-concept rationale for its mechanism of targeting c-Kit.”
Considering the meeting is being held this week through February 19th, it could be important timing if JSPR stock is on your watch list this week.
EOSE Stock News
This week the market got the official timing on when it will receive the final figures for 2022. The energy company releases its Q4 and full-year on February 28th after the closing bell. If EOSE stock is on your watch list, keep that in mind.
EBET/SBET Stock News
In this case, industry-related headlines have brought some sympathy sentiment to betting stocks. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), a market leader in the space, announced better-than-expected Q4 results. It also raised its 2023 guidance, which brought more optimism to the sports betting and wagering industry-related stocks.
This includes other micro-cap stocks like EBET & SharpLink Gaming Ltd. Since this is more sympathy-related and not specific to EBET or SBET, it will be interesting to see if there is any follow-through momentum in the market in the near term.
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2023.01.09 17:11 dabear51 NFL Playoffs Fantasy League Idea
Came up with this last year and we enjoyed it. It's similar to DFS but plays through the wild card, divisional and conference weeks.
We did 4 teams last year, but I think 5 teams could work too.
Each team drafts 18 players, optimal scoring lineup counts each week (so no choosing starters or picking up FA's after you draft). Team with the most points scored after the three weeks wins it all.
We used 0.5PPR format since Draftkings DFS has that as the standard setting for their games so I could just take the scoring values straight from there.
Key is to consider which teams you think will remain in the playoffs. One team only had 4 players to start in the third week last year, but it didn't even matter because Mahomes, Mike Evans and Kelce were smoking hot in the playoffs last year.
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2022.12.23 17:08 SuitedSportsKyle Suited Sports - NBA Hornets @ Lakers Late Night SD Preview
Hello everyone! I am new to the subreddit trying to help grow a largely forgotten about contest type that doesn't get enough buzz. Showdown slates can still be extremely profitable if played correctly and I want to help you guys do just that! If you get overwhelmed on multi-game slates trying to balance injury news and roster construction, then SD could be perfect for you! We will look at optimal CPTN's, injury news and the effects they have on each team's lineup, pivots off of the chalk and MORE! I want to help teach everyone here how to properly attack a single game slate and be profitable long term. A lot gets talked about for main slate NBA, but SD slates fall behind and still have a decent contest selection for the late night. With that being said, let's get down to it!
Recap of Previous Night: In Gafford we trusted and in Gafford we failed. I think I bubbled 60% of my lineups tonight and he was the reason. You have to have the brain of a goldfish though in DFS. I would have made that play 100/100 times with Kristaps out so it is all good. Everything else was pretty spot on. To be honest, and this happens from time to time, the winning lineup was a massive train so not likely anyone came out in the green last night unless you max entered and hit the nuts or you single bullet shipped the top spot that was duped by close to 100 people. We move onto today's scaryyy 14 gamer, but lets make it a lot less stressful and just play the late slate!
Hornets @ Lakers SD Preview - Implied Total: 236
- Lakers -3.5
- Pace:
- Hornets: 9th (Pace Up)
- Lakers: 2nd (Pace Down/Neutral)
- Defensive Efficiency:
- Hornets: 25th (Neutral Matchup)
- Lakers: 17th (Easy Matchup)
- Injury News
- Terry Rozier: Doubtful
- Austin Reaves: Questionable
Captain I am getting a bit annoyed with Draftkings for the soft pricing in these late SD slates. Lebron James ($16,200 CPTN) should be like $12,000 but he is here at $10,800 so this is pretty much a smash him at CPTN and get different at UTIL type of night. Like does anyone other than LaMelo have a ceiling that even approaches his and we have the value to get him at CPTN. In the month of December he has gone under 48 DK points just once and everything else was pretty much 50-60 DK points. This is a perfect matchup against a top 10 pace team that plays virtually zero defense. What more do we have to say. If you want to get a bit different, I think it is perfectly acceptable to go with a Russell Westbrook ($12,300 CPTN) at CPTN as well with the ceiling he brings. He will come off of the bench for 30ish minutes against a unit led by... checks notes... Theo Maledon... Like c'mon. He should also smash and he might afford you the luxury of not having to punt all the way down to someone like Maledon. Other than those two, I think LaMelo Ball ($15,000 CPTN) with his usage can even outscore Lebron so he is fine at half the CPTN ownership (I think, haven't gotten to build lineups yet). The Lakers are poor at defending the G spot so he should smash here and is coming off of a 63 DK point game. My last CPTN is none other than Thomas Bryant ($10,200 CPTN) with how terrible the Hornets are against bigs. He should come in, get close to a double double and walk outta here with 30+ DK points easy. Almost every big against Charlotte does that. No problems with any of these 4 guys at CPTN and there is probably a 85% chance one of them is the optimal CPTN.
Utility Starting with the Hornets, we should get a similar rotation to the other night against the Clippers. LaMelo/Oubre/Hayward/Washington/Plumlee will start with Theo, Richards, McDaniels and maybe Thor getting any meaningful minutes. Ball seems like a must so lock him in somewhere. From there you have both Oubre and Hayward that fill a similar role. Oubre seems to have the higher ceiling so I would assume ownership steams him up here. He is coming off of a bad game which is slightly concerning and the SG spot might be one of the only spots the Lakers defend at a solid level. I would maybe look to fade him so you can afford the LBJ or LaMelo CPTN and just hope Hayward can get you there. He didn't play well last game either, but the defensive matchup is fine and he will get the minutes. He is one I am fine with but not going to be pressed to get into my lineup. I do however love Plumlee in this spot. The Lakers are also pretty bad against C's without Davis and the production from Plumlee this year is probably at a career best for him. He should play 25ish minutes with pretty decent usage and as long as he doesn't get into foul trouble will be a 1 PPM type of guy. His backup, Nick Richards, is a streaky dude who might be on the downturn. I still like him here since he busted at pretty solid ownership last game. I think some people will be off of him for Maledon. I think he should bounce back to normal mid to low 20's minutes. Last game the Clippers just went small so the Hornets matched with PJ or McDaniels at C. I wouldn't run out both Plumlee and Richards, but I like both. Speaking of PJ, He is a dude that always flies under the radar at low ownership and we know the ceiling can be high if his shot is falling. Lebron doesn't play much defense any more so I think his shot will be there. I might actually like him over Hayward given the ownership and just hope he has a big game at the low ownership. The bench unit is rounded out with Theo who should see around 20 minutes and is cheap enough to let you get most of the studs and Lebron or Ball at CPTN. I love him here once again. The Lakers are bad against G's, especially off of the bench. McDaniels coming off of a huge game seems like an easy fade. He is typically a low usage dude that doesn't top 20 DK points often. I just hate playing low usage guys at decent ownership in SD. It fails you more often than not. The last dude to talk about is JT Thor but I doubt he becomes a legit factor. He only played decent run because it was a blowout last game.
Onto the Lakers, Lebron is a lock somewhere so play him at UTIL or CPTN. Given we should see Westbrook active and I expect Reaves to play tonight, the starting lineup will be SchrodeBeverley/WalkeLebron/Bryant with Westbrook, Troy Brown and Reaves getting meaningful minutes with Jones, Gabriel and maybe Christie getting some minutes as well. This is I think the first time this season we will get a roster like this for the Lakers. They haven't had all of their guards active without AD this season, so hopefully we can nail the rotation. Here is how I see it shaking out:
- PG Minutes: Schroder 12, Westbrook 28, Beverley 8
- SG Minutes: Reaves 12, Schroder 14, Walker 10, Beverley 12
- SF Minutes: Walker 22, Lebron 12, Reaves 14
- PF Minutes: Lebron 20, Gabriel 10, Brown 10, Walker 2, Jones 6
- C Minutes: Bryant 28, Gabriel 8, Jones 10, Lebron 2
- Minutes Total: Lebron 34, Westbrook 28, Walker 32, Schroder 26, Beverley 20, Bryant 28, Jones 16, Reaves 26, Brown 10, Gabriel 18
Jesus this team needs to shed some of their guards at the deadline (Bulls trade?). With this I just can't see a way as long as Reaves plays that Christie sees any minutes. It doesn't make any sense. I think you can maybe take some off of Damion Jones and give them to Christie, but everything else here seems right with what roster they should have tonight. Also with this I don't think you can go Brown in a SD format so we really only have 9 guys to talk about. Westbrook can get 40+ DK points in just 28 minutes and I think that is a low number to give him but he does have a foot injury so maybe they just limit him a bit. Lonnie seems like a great play at his price and ownership. Hornets are bad all around so no reason he can't keep his run of great form going. Schroder I would temper expectations for with Westbrook and Reaves coming back. I would maybe think about him if Reaves sits, so just keep an eye out for updates. Beverley is such a low usage guy I don't know how you play him. Bryant feels like a lock as well so play him wherever you can. Jones and Gabriel could be the tickets to a takedown tonight. I would heavily lean Gabriel just because the Hornets also go small at times and he has been getting minutes lately. The price is cheap and he can get you 10+ easily with a decent ceiling. Jones is fine but he did only get 6 minutes last game. Maybe temper your expectations there. I think Reavers is very much in play if he is active. He is dirt cheap compared to his output as of late and the minutes are pretty much secured. Ownership will likely be suppressed with the Q tag on him as well. Once again, just keep an eye on updates because the Reaves news could lead to some major changes. Christie would likely come into play and Beverley might actually be worth talking about in that event.
Hopefully this has helped you out for tonight! For updates and main slate discussion + a lot MORE, come join our Discord, Suited Sports, for all of your sports needs! We cover all sports, DFS and Betting, as well as just general sports talk. No pressure to join. Only if you are interested!
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2022.11.07 00:49 randothrowawy1873 Please help me decided between VISA, Draftkings, and General Motors
Got some offers I’m very thankful for but no idea which one to choose
My goals for this summer - prestige (want FAANG/unicorn/trading next summer) - not be bored
Background: I’m a sophomore in CS at a T10 CS school. Was in Austin last summer for my previous internship and over the school year for uni.
Draftkings - highest compensation (45/hr, 2.5K sign on) - downtown Boston, hybrid - free housing that’s just a 10 min walk from office - no idea on team/project (put backend as preference but no guarantee)
VISA - Austin, hybrid - $30/hr + 4K housing - revenue data analytics team - flexibility in project - been in Austin for the school year so can just stay in my apartment for the summer - need to Uber to and from office (20 min away)
GM - Austin hybrid - $30/hr + 3K housing - machine learning team work on optimizing supply chain - been in Austin for the school year so can just stay in my apartment for the summer - need to Uber to and from office (20 min away)
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2022.10.17 20:23 dfscoach Monday Night Football Showdown Spreadsheet
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2022.10.17 20:23 dfscoach Monday Night Football Showdown Spreadsheet
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2022.10.17 20:22 dfscoach Monday Night Football Showdown Spreadsheet
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2022.10.16 03:22 V0oD0oMan Rookie Report: Week 6 Starts & Sits
Original article from drinkfive.com can be found here. Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re more than a third of the way through the fantasy regular season, and by now you should have a pretty good idea of how your team stacks up. You should know your strengths and weaknesses, and what positions you need more production out of. Unfortunately, thanks to some byes and a plethora of injuries around the league you might be limited in your options to fix those positions in week 6. Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, and Damien Harris have all been ruled out at running back. Other players who remain questionable or out include Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts, Chris Olave, Julio Jones, Tee Higgins, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Keenan Allen. It's a little messy out there in week 6, and that means you may have to turn to a rookie to fill in somewhere, and I’m here to guide you through that. Always take into account the context of your league and your roster before applying what’s written below, but there are plenty of rookies to get into for week 6.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s jump into week 6…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start: RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 6: @GB): Don’t let the two goal-line scores by Michael Carter fool you. Breece Hall is dominating this backfield. Hall has 35 carries in the last two weeks compared to just 19 for Carter, and he’s bested Carter in route participation by more than 20% in each game as well. He looks like he’s going to push for 20 touches weekly going forward, and the Packers rank a lowly 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and allow the 17th-most RB points per game. This is not a matchup to fear. Hall is a rock-solid RB2 with an upside for more in Green Bay.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting: RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): If you had the foresight to stash Kenneth Walker on your fantasy rosters this season, Rashaad Penny’s broken tibia may have unlocked a potential league-winner on your fantasy squad. You don’t want to celebrate an injury, but Walker should assume the early-down role that Penny was playing and his usage hints that there could be even more upside for KW3. Rashaad Penny was used in passing routes often, but he was rarely targeted. He had a 42% route participation rate on the season but was targeted on just 7% of his routes run. Walker has been targeted on 23% of his routes run for the season, the highest rate of any Seattle running back. If that continues as his playing time increases, Walker could end up being a top-12 RB the rest of the way. I’d expect DeeJay Dallas to continue handling the passing-down work for now, but it’s not guaranteed. Arizona boasts a slightly above-average run defense (12th in run defense DVOA, 12th-fewest RB points per game allowed), but rushing volume should make Walker a top-20 RB option in this one.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. SF): I got comfortable enough to call London an auto-start the last two weeks, and he responded with back-to-back duds of 3.7 and 7.5 PPR points in those two games. Head Coach Arthur Smith loves to destroy the dreams of fantasy players, but I’m going back to the well here and saying I like London in week 6. The 49ers will be without Emmanuel Moseley and Jimmy Ward for the foreseeable future, and they also may have Kyle Pitts to contend with. That should open things up enough for London to get back on track in what looks like a tough matchup on paper. London is a top-24 WR option for me this week.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 6: vs. NYJ): Doubs continues to operate as the Packers’ WR2. Over the last 3 weeks, he’s averaged about a 90% route participation rate and 7 targets per game since emerging as a starter. The targets last week found their way to Randall Cobb rather than Romeo, but I’d expect there to be a better balance this week. The Packers have an implied total of 27 points this week and Doubs should be back in the 6-8 target range against a defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA. He should be a reasonable WR3 player this week.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Olave is listed as questionable for this game, and I would’ve bet against Olave being able to clear the concussion protocol in time for this game after seeing the way the light went out of his eyes when his head hit the turf last weekend, but he was listed as a full participant in practice on Friday. If he can get cleared and play this weekend, he has obvious upside in an offense that will still be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, but the Bengals are a tough matchup. Cincy has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed only two receivers to reach a dozen points (half-PPR) all season. If he plays, view Olave as a volume-based WR3.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): The Colts seemed to find something last week with Pierce. The rookie out-targeted Michael Pittman for the first time, and Matt Ryan looked for him in clutch situations, targeting Pierce 3 times on third down and twice on 2nd down with more than 10 yards to go. His route participation rate climbed to a season-high 74% in that game, and he now has 3 straight games where he’s been targeted on at least a quarter of his routes run. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have both already been ruled out for this one, and last week with both players out Matt Ryan had his second-highest pass attempt total of the season despite a very neutral game script. The Jaguars have been tough to throw on, allowing the 12th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 9th in pass defense DVOA, but the absence of the running backs is enough for me to push Pierce up to a fringe WR3/4 for this week. I like his chances at 70+ receiving yards on Sunday.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting: QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Pickett’s situation for week 6 isn’t much different than it was for week 5. He faces an elite pass defense in a game where he should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch. The Bucs rank 1st in pass defense DVOA. Pickett did throw for over 300 yards last week on over 50 attempts and finished as the QB19 despite not throwing a touchdown, but his prospects aren’t much better for this one. I’d view him as a volume-based QB2 but would slide him down the rankings a bit in leagues with stiffer penalties for turnovers or sacks taken, and I’d look at other options if I were considering Pickett in a 1-QB league.
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Zappe was extremely efficient in his first pro start, carving up the Detroit Lions in an easy win. He completed more than 80% of his passes, and his only turnover came on a dropped pass that turned into a pick. That efficiency didn’t lead to much fantasy production. The rookie was the QB25 for the week. It looks like Mac Jones may be able to return this week, but if he doesn’t and it’s Zappe again, I’d expect similar results – a low-volume, efficient passing effort that won’t help you a ton for fantasy. The Browns haven’t allowed any of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced to top 15 fantasy points, a list that includes Justin Herbert last week.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Allgeier operated as the clear RB1-A in this backfield last week with Cordarrelle Patterson on IR, but he wasn’t a great fantasy play against a stout Bucs defense. He was limited to just 45 yards on 13 carries and didn’t see a single target. He gets another tough defensive matchup this week. The 49ers rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest running back points per game. His role also could look slightly different this week with the potential return of Damien Williams from IR. I’d look for options with more upside this week.
RB Jaylen Warren. PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Warren has been getting buzz as a hot waiver name this week, but I wouldn’t plug him into lineups against the Bucs. Najee Harris’ Lisfranc injury from the preseason seems to still be lingering. He hasn’t looked like himself in recent weeks. It would probably behoove the Steelers to give Harris a game or two off to get right, but the more likely outcome is that they’ll just reduce his weekly workload and give more of it to Warren. Warren has shown more burst and looked better than Harris in the last couple games, but a split workload doesn’t make him a good option this week against a Tampa defense that allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 6: @GB): Don’t be afraid to play Wilson this week if you must, but the change to Zach Wilson at QB has been a problem for the rookie. The Jets aren’t throwing as much with Zach back under center, so Wilson is seeing fewer targets, but what’s even more troubling is that he’s seeing shorter targets. Wilson earned 11 targets per game in Joe Flacco’s three starts with an aDOT of 9.8 yards. In two games with Zach Wilson, Garrett has earned 10 total targets with an aDOT of 6.5 yards. There’s reason for optimism against the Packers. The Jets should be forced to throw a little more as a 7-point underdog, and Green Bay has been more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out wide and the 12th-most to receivers lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. Wilson is the Jets’ primary slot receiver. There’s upside here, but I’d view Garrett as more of a WR4 than a WR3 this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): I talked last week about how the switch to Kenny Pickett at QB in Pittsburgh could be a boost for Pickens, and it was nice to see that come to fruition as Pickens went for 6-83 on 8 targets in Buffalo, but I’m not sure I’d go back to the well this week. Game script should be negative, and the Steelers should be throwing often, but the Bucs present a much stiffer test at CB than the Bills did. Buffalo has been making do with inexperienced corners by playing a lot of zone defense and defending as a team. The Bucs have proven studs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean starting at corner. They’ve allowed fewer than 8 points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions, and Pickens has been lined up in the slot on less than 8% of his snaps this year. Volume can still get Pickens to a useful day against the Bucs, but it could be tougher sledding this week than it was against the Bills and Jets for the rookie.
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 6: @KC): Shakir was impressive in his first extended action of the season, racking up 3-75-1 on 5 targets, but Isaiah McKenzie has cleared the concussion protocol and should assume a full-time slot role this week. McKenzie was splitting the role with Jamison Crowder prior to the injury, but Crowder suffered a broken ankle and will be out indefinitely. There’s a chance Shakir takes some of that slot workload, but I wouldn’t count on him getting enough opportunity to be useful this week.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Bellinger’s playing time has been steadily rising each week, and he scored his second touchdown of the season in London last weekend, but he still hasn’t topped 4 touches in a game this year and the return of Wan’Dale Robinson could make it harder for Bellinger to earn targets. The Ravens haven’t been great against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, but the biggest reason for that is they’ve allowed 3 tight end touchdowns. They’re giving up less than 40 yards per game to the position. You’re likely to be disappointed in Bellinger’s game unless he scores a touchdown, and the Giants’ implied total is below 20 points in this one.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 6: @Pit.): Cam Brate’s injury opened the door for Otton to play a full-time role in week 6, and he earned 7 targets en route to a top-12 PPR finish for the week. Cam Bratehas been practicing in full this week, so Otton will return to his backup role this weekend. You can’t start him in this one.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Pacheco’s trend of not playing much unless the Chiefs win comfortably continued in week 5. Pacheco now has 11+ carries in both games that Kansas City won by double-digits, and 6 total touches in the other 3 games combined. This game is very unlikely to be a blowout win, so I’d lean against considering Pacheco.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 6: @KC): As expected, Cook got a couple of opportunities late in a blowout last weekend. He managed to post a 24-yard touchdown run in the 2nd half in his best fantasy day of the season so far. To date, more than 70% of Cook’s touches have come in the two games the Bills won by 34+ points. His role will likely grow as the season goes on, but Devin Singletary typically dominates the backfield work in competitive games, and this week’s tilt with the Chiefs should be very competitive. I wouldn’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.
RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 6: @Atl.): Mason has been a non-factor in this offense even with the injuries to Elijah Mitchell and Davis-Price, but Davis-Price in expected to return this week in a good matchup against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA. Unfortunately for TDP, Jeff Wilson Jr. has been great in his absence and there may not be much of a role to return to. Davis-Price nearly split the workload evenly with Wilson in week 2, but I’d expect much closer to an 80-20 split here.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): It’s coming for Moore, but we’re not there yet. The snaps have increased in each of the last two weeks for the rookie while Mecole Hardman’s playing time heads in the other direction. It’s only a matter of time before he’s operating as Kansas City’s WR3. For now, continue to monitor his role with him on your bench. The Bills rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Thornton made his debut in week 5 and played a bigger role in his first game back than I anticipated. He had a higher route participation rate than Nelson Agholor or DeVante Parker, but that was because of a blowout win and a hamstring injury to Agholor that sidelined the veteran after just 7 snaps. I’d expect Thornton to operate as the WR4 this week even if Agholor is out. His best hope at fantasy production would be hauling in a deep ball, but the Pats lack a QB who throws the deep ball well.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 6: vs. NYJ): Watson is yet to exceed a 30% route participation rate or 3 touches in any game this season. He did exit in the 3rd quarter of the London game with a hamstring injury, but he had just 1 target and 1 carry by that point of the game. He’s questionable for week 6, and not playing enough to be in your lineups if he’s able to suit up. Update: Watson has been ruled out for week 6.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. NE): Bell has totaled just 6 targets in the first 5 games. He remains someone you can’t start until at least the return of Deshaun Watson.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Tolbert has now been inactive for 4 of the Cowboys first 5 games, and there’s no reason to think he won’t make it 5 of 6 this week.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 6: @Sea.): It pains me to say that you have to sit McBride in the best possible tight-end matchup. He just isn’t playing enough to be anything more than a touchdown dart throw despite the rosy matchup. The Seahawks have allowed season-high fantasy days to 7 different tight ends in their 5 games – Andrew Beck, Albert Okwuegbunam, Ross Dwelley, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson, Taysom Hill, and Adam Trautman. If giving up over 35 points to TJ Hockenson wasn’t bad enough in week 4, the Seahawks let a tight end throw a TD pass to another tight end in week 5 (Taysom Hill to Trautman). Any tight end who suits up against Seattle is bound to have their best day of the season, but for McBride that could mean 6 PPR points. It’ll be a bonus if he’s on the field for even 30% of the offensive snaps this week.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 6: @NYG): The absence of Rashod Bateman last week didn’t result in a boost in usage or production for Likely. In fact, Likely played his lowest snap share and saw his lowest route participation rate of the season last Sunday. You can’t count on him for anything more than a couple of targets in this game if that.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Woods has been in the 25-30% route participation range in each of the last 3 weeks. He scored 2 touchdowns in week 3, but he’s seen just 2 targets total in the two weeks since. He’s a TD dart throw at best, and the Jaguars haven’t allowed a tight end score yet this season.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dalton Schultz left after just 10 snaps last week when he aggravated his sprained PCL, but it sounds like he’s expected to play in week 7. Hendershot and Ferguson split the snaps pretty evenly after Schultz’s exit, but neither recorded a single target. Even if Schultz is out this week, neither of these guys would be worth a dart throw against a defense ranking 3rd in pass defense DVOA.
Rookies on Byes in week 6: RB Dameon Pierce, HOU, RB Zamir White, LV, WRs Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks, TEN, TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN Deep League Sleepers, Stashes & Cheap DFS Options: QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Thompson was less than inspiring in his NFL debut last weekend, posting just 166 passing yards and two turnovers, but the Dolphins coaching staff saw enough to name him the starter for this weekend without waiting on the statuses of Teddy Bridgewater and TuaTagovailoa, and I like his chances for a bounce back. Thompson will get first-team reps all week in practice, he has explosive weapons, and the Vikings are in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed and passer rating against, and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. Minnesota has only given up 4 passing touchdowns in the first 5 weeks, but they’ve been vulnerable against the pass. I also like Thompson’s chances to add 20-30 yards with his legs. The Vikings have given up more than 45 rushing yards to both mobile QBs they’ve faced this year (Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields), and Thompson wasn’t afraid to use his legs in college (over 370 yards rushing in 2018 and 2019). Skylar is obviously a risky play this week, but I like his chances to wind up as a mid-range QB2 or better in a matchup that is better than you might think.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 6: @Pit.): White has seen his role behind Leonard Fournette grow in recent weeks. He’s played nearly 40% of the snaps in each of the last two games and had at least 8 opportunities in each (carries + targets combined), and he could see even more this week in a game that has the potential to get out of hand. The Tampa offense has looked more like itself in recent weeks with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back on the field, and the Steelers will be missing their top 3 cornerbacks and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in this game. The Steelers won’t have any answers for Tom Brady and that passing game, and that could lead to some garbage time opportunities for White against a middling run defense. There’s a low floor here, but also some nice upside for DFS tournaments.
RB Keontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 6: @Sea.): James Conner and Darrel Williams have both been ruled out for week 6, leaving just Eno Benjamin and Ingram to handle the backfield work. Ingram has been inactive in each of the first 5 weeks of the season, so it’s hard to say how big of a role he’s going to play behind Benjamin, but Eno isn’t going to handle 100% of the workload. The Seahawks rank 24th in run defense DVOA and allow the 5th most RB points per game, so any opportunities against that unit are worth taking note of. Ingram costs the bare minimum on DraftKings - $3,000 in multiple-game contests, and $200 in Showdown contests – and he has a legitimate chance at 8-10 touches against one of the worst running back defenses in the league.
RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Early reports after the weekend are that Damien Harris could miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury suffered on Sunday. Rhamondre Stevenson will step into the clear lead back role while Harris is out, but he isn’t going to play 100% of the snaps. One of these two rookies is going to play a role alongside Stevenson while Damien is out. Both may be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues, but I would prioritize Strong since he’s the back that has been on the active roster for the first 5 weeks. Keep an eye on Damien Harris’ status moving forward, he was listed as a limited participant in practice on Tuesday, but reports were that he only warmed up. He’s already been ruled out for week 6. The Browns have allowed multiple backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in each of the last 2 games, so if you get a sense of which back will serve as the #2 behind Rhamondre, there could be value in showdown DFS contests.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk 6: vs Car.): I mention Kyren here because of the news that Cam Akers is now away from the Rams for personal reasons. Sean McVay referenced “some things we’re working through” when talking about the situation. We obviously don’t have all the information, but if I had to guess, this won’t be just a one-week absence. Kyren is likely to remain on IR through the Rams’ bye next week, but it’s very possible he returns for week 8, and he’s worth a look in really deep leagues. Adam Schefter reported before the season opener that Williams was ticketed for a meaningful role in the Rams’ offense, and if Akers’ absence continues, Williams could step into the RB2 role behind Darrell Henderson when he comes back. I wouldn’t make Kyren a priority stash. He’s a sub-par athlete (9th-percentile speed score and 20th-percentile burst score per Player Profiler), Malcolm Brown is still around to take some touches as well, and the Rams are unlikely to use Williams in the role he’s best suited for. Williams is a receiving back – he caught 77 passes in his last two seasons at Notre Dame - but the Rams don’t throw to the running backs on passing downs. Just two of Matt Stafford’s 52 passing attempts on 3rd or 4th down this year have targeted a running back. The Rams seem to like him, and there’s a clear opportunity for playing time when he comes back, so he’s worth a look as a stash if you’re desperate but temper your expectations.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Wan’Dale looks to be on track to play for the first time since week 1, and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Giants. New York has been operating with a replacement crew of receivers that rivals the Bears for worst in the league. Their WR1 has been Richie James. Robinson should step in as a valuable safety valve in the slot for Daniel Jones, and the Giants take on a Ravens team this week that has allowed the 2nd-most points per game to receivers lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. It’s hard to bank on Wan’Dale playing a full complement of snaps in his first game back after missing a month, but I like his chances at 6+ targets in this game. He’s a real option as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues if you’re searching for WR help.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 6: @LAC): Dulcich seems likely to return from IR and make his debut this week, and that may put him in position to be the first tight end to ever play with a perm. Ok, I don’t know if any previous tight ends have had one, but if you don’t know what Dulcich looks like I urge you to google him and feast your eyes on what Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm (@CoopAFiasco on twitter) referred to as “James Franco cosplaying as Weird Al.” Dulcich could step into a big role in his first game against a middling Charger defense. LA allows the 18th-most TE points per game and the Broncos have been operating with Eric Saubert as their clear lead tight end. Dulcich should overtake him immediately, and the schedule gets more favorable in a few weeks. 5 of the first 6 teams the Broncos face after their week 9 bye have allowed more TE points per game than the Chargers. I’d view Dulcich as a volatile TE2 option this week, but there is upside in the coming weeks to be a top-12 tight end.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (
@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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2022.10.10 00:33 big_goat Did I just violate the terms of service?
I have this friend, an older guy, who has been tight on cash for a while. In the past, I've recounted my success on DraftKings and he's always seemed intrigued by it. The other day, when the issue of his finances arose, I told him I could drop by and help him set up his DraftKings account and show him how to operate the website. (I worry I may have opened up a can of worms as I may be troubleshooting with a computer illiterate person from now on but this is another issue.)
After we got done setting up his account and I taught him how to enter contests. I pulled out my own computer and began to enter contests from my account -- I was connected to the same WiFi Network. Our computers were only inches apart. Furthermore, we had the same lineup on the NFL main since we established it was optimal. I worry DraftKings is gonna see this as me using this guy as an affiliate to gain access to the sub-$5 contests which I'm barred from. This couldn't be further from the truth. I'm only trying to help a friend make some money.
My account hasn't been restricted but I fear it could be. Should I be worried?
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2022.10.09 15:39 xylopolist The Rookie Report: Week 5 Starts & Sits
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Can you believe we’re already a month into the season? Time flies when you’re watching the Broncos in prime time every week. The first month of the season has been a messy one dominated by sloppy offensive football, injuries, and the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve seen the ascension of several breakout rookies so far – Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson – but there could be even more on the horizon. Several injured rookies are set to make their debuts in the next week or two. Bailey Zappe & Kenny Pickett will make their first starts this week. Tyquan Thornton and Brian Robinson Jr. are off IR and ready to take the field, and Greg Dulcich could be back next week.
The list of relevant rookies could be growing, and I’ll be here to break it down each week and help you sift through what to do with these players in your lineups. This week we’re talking more about the tight end position than usual as 4 rookies at the position had multiple catches last week. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get to it.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 5…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start: WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.): Olave has been on an absolute roll in the last 3 weeks earning at least a 25% target share and 40% air yardage share in each week, and turned in finishes of WR33, WR6, and WR15 in those games. He wasn’t slowed down by Andy Dalton stepping in at QB in week 4, and with Michael Thomas ruled out for week 5 the rookie should keep operating as the clear WR1 for New Orleans. The Seahawks rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and have been especially susceptible to big pass plays, something we know the Saints look for with Olave. The Seahawks have allowed at least one completion of 30+ yards each week and have given up 2 of the five longest pass plays of the season thus far. Start Olave with confidence.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 5: @ TB): London had a down game in week 4, falling short of 12 PPR points for the first time last Sunday, but he topped a 30% target share for the 3rd straight game and a 30% air yardage share for the 4th straight game. His fantasy day fell victim to Arthur Smith deciding to “run the piss out of the ball” in the 2nd half. Tampa Bay is a tough matchup for the rookie. The Bucs rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game. Negative game script should still be enough to get London back on track. Atlanta has trailed by more than 4 points in just one game this year, and London was targeted 12 times in that game. The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs this week. Volume should give London a WR3 floor in this one, especially with Kyle Pitts ruled out.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting: RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): The switch to Zach Wilson at QB did nothing to derail the red-hot start to the season for Hall. Breece posted his 3rd-straight top-15 PPR finish and continued to establish himself as the clear RB1 in this backfield. He played 66% of the offensive snaps, handled 65% of the rushing attempts, and was in a route for 61% of Wilson’s dropbacks. The Jets threw the ball less with Wilson back – Flacco averaged 51.7 attempts per game, Wilson was at 36 in his debut – but no matter how the Jets choose to attack Hall is going to be heavily involved. The Dolphins have limited opposing running back production so far. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4th in run defense DVOA, but I expect volume to keep Breece in the RB2 range this week. His usage would make him a weekly RB1 if he played in a good offense.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 5: @ JAX.): I don’t know that I’d be able to convince you to sit Pierce if I tried after he put up 25.9 PPR points and finished as the RB5 for the week last weekend, especially considering that he caught 6 passes in the process. The biggest knock on Pierce has been his lack of passing game usage (he totaled 4 targets in the first 3 weeks), and it appears he may be on track to overcoming that. I’d still advise a little caution before going all-in on Pierce. Rex Burkhead was still on the field on almost all the long down & distance snaps and 2-minute offense snaps in week 4, and the Texans are going to continue to be underdogs just about every week. Pierce’s 6 receptions may be a mirage, and he wasn’t very efficient with those catches (8 receiving yards). Pierce benefitted from Houston not abandoning the run when they fell behind against the Chargers, but the Chargers are MUCH easier to attack on the ground than through the air. There will be weeks where they fall behind against teams that are tougher to run against and they abandon it. The Jaguars have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game, so Pierce is still a solid option this week, but be aware that Jacksonville has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards and ranks 12th in run defense DVOA. I wouldn’t start Pierce over any of your true studs, but he’s certainly still a top-24 option this week.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): On the surface, Wilson’s week 4 stat line was pretty disappointing. Just 2 catches for 41 yards on 6 targets. Those were season lows across the board, and they coincided with the return of starting QB Zach Wilson. If you’ve been starting Garrett Wilson all year, you’re probably pretty concerned that Zach Wilson could be a problem for him, but the underlying numbers give me reasons for optimism. Week 4 was the first time all season that Wilson had a higher route participation rate than Corey Davis, and his 6 targets tied for the team lead. Week 4 was also the first time this year the Jets held a lead at any point prior to the last 30 seconds of a game. The lower passing volume wasn’t just because of the QB change. It was because the game script was more positive. Those bigger pass volume games will still happen with Zach at QB. Zach’s inefficiency last week wasn’t ideal, but I’d expect improvement there as well as he gets more comfortable. For this week’s matchup, the Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most WR points per game, and the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs. The offense should be throwing, and Garrett Wilson has WR2 upside and has a 6-target floor.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): After back-to-back weeks of a 95% route participation rate, I’m ready to declare Doubs at least the WR2 on this football team. He’s earned 8 targets and found the end zone in each of those two games as well, but he also fumbled in each game and dropped what would’ve been a game-winning TD late in regulation last weekend. The Packers still eventually won the game. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the miscues after Green Bay didn’t bench him after them. This offense still runs through the running backs, but Doubs should continue to see at least 6-8 weekly targets while Sammy Watkins is on IR, and probably beyond that. The Giants have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, but they rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Packers should have success throwing the ball, and Doubs is a solid WR3 option again this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 5: @ BUF): Pickens may be the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers QB switch from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. Pickens has been a full-time player all year, but he and Trubisky had struggled to forge much of a connection. The targets were finally coming around in weeks 3 & 4, but the pair connected just 5 times for 70 yards on 11 targets in those 2 games, with 3 of those catches going for 5 yards or fewer. Enter Kenny Pickett in the second half Sunday. Pickett delivered the exact same target share to Pickens that Trubisky did in that game (4 targets on 13 pass attempts), but all 4 of Pickett’s attempts were connections. They totaled 71 yards, and only 1 of the 4 completions went for fewer than 10 yards. Pickett could be the QB that unlocks Pickens. Diontae Johnson is still the #1 receiver here, and the Bills allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, but I think there is serious upside for the rookie on Sunday. The Bills are missing safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Christian Benford for this game, and their two perimeter CB starters will be rookie Kaiir Elam and 2nd-year pro Dane Jackson. Neither player represents a matchup that you should be scared of. Pickens has a low floor, but his upside makes him a viable WR3/4 option for this game. At the very least, he shouldn’t be available on your league’s waiver wire.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting: RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 5: @ TB): Falcons’ starting RB Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR this week, and Allgeier is the next man up in this backfield, but this is a brutal matchup and Allgeier isn’t the only other back on this team. The Bucs have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game this season, and only CEH has scored 7+ fantasy points against them at the position on the year. Allgeier carried 10 times last week with C-Patt missing most of the 2nd half, and Caleb Huntley matched those 10 carries in that game. Avery Williams has also had a role on passing downs, and Damien Williams could return from IR in the next couple weeks. That’s a lot of names that could be involved in this offense. This likely remains enough of a committee in Cordarrelle’s absence that Allgeier should only be trusted in plus matchups, and this week’s matchup is not a good one.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): White set season-highs in snap share and targets in week 4 as the Bucs played from behind all night against the Chiefs last Sunday. It’s an open question whether that’s a sign of things to come or was simply a matter of game flow. If his role is indeed growing, the Falcons represent a great matchup since they rank 26th in run defense DVOA, but White’s easiest path to production is through receiving work, and Atlanta does a good job of limiting that. The Falcons have allowed the 8th-fewest receptions and 5th-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. For White to have a productive game in week 5, he’s going to need garbage time carries. That’s possible with the Bucs favored by 10 points, but it’s always hard to bank on that for a fantasy lineup.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Through the season’s first 4 weeks, we’ve seen Pacheco reach 11 carries and 60+ rushing yards twice now, but both of those were games where the Chiefs played from comfortably ahead all day. Only 8 of Pacheco’s 28 carries for the season have come in situations where Kansas City wasn’t ahead by double-digits. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Chiefs spend considerable time this week ahead by multiple scores. They’re 7-point favorites against the Raiders. Your confidence in whether Pacheco sees 10+ touches should be based on your confidence that KC plays from ahead. Even if he gets that kind of workload, 10-12 carries against a middling run defense like the Raiders (16th in run defense DVOA) makes him just a fringe RB3 at best. If you’re in leagues that count return yardage, you may be excited by Pacheco’s 90+ kick return yards each of the last two weeks, but more than 70% of kickoffs by Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson this season have resulted in touchbacks.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Robinson is in line to return in week 5 after being shot twice in the preseason. He was slated to be the starter before landing on the non-football injury list, and he should immediately be part of the running back rotation, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll play in his debut. It’s been reported that he’ll be on a pitch count, and the Titans are much better at defending the run than the pass. The Titans allow the 13th-fewest RB points per game and rank 8th in run defense DVOA. I’d wait and see how Robinson looks before getting him into lineups.
RB Kenneth Walker III (Wk. 5: @ NO): Walker saw an uptick in usage last Sunday with Travis Homer on IR, but he’s still a distant second to Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. KW3 is yet to see 10+ touches in any game this year, and the Saints have allowed the 6th-fewest running back points per game. This isn’t a matchup where you should be hoping for production on limited touches for Walker.
WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 5: @ WAS): Philips returned from injury last week but was on the field for just two offensive snaps. He could have a big opportunity on Sunday with teammate Treylon Burks sidelined by a turf toe injury. Phillips led the team with 9 targets and 66 receiving yards as the primary slot receiver in week 1 before getting hurt, and the Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions. The big question is will he go back to that same role this week with Burks out? I’m not convinced he will yet.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Watson made his first trip into the end zone last week on a designed run play, but his route participation rate continued to trend in the wrong direction, He was in a route for just 18% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks. Green Bay has made a point to get the ball into Watson’s hands when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting onto the field enough to be in lineups. He hasn’t touched the ball more than 3 times in a game this season.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 5: @ GB): Bellinger has some sneaky upside this week with the Giants running with a skeleton crew at wide receiver. His playing time remains too low (he’s yet to reach 50% route participation this season), but he’s seen his target per route run and overall target share increase each and every week. He’s a good bet for 5+ targets this week in London, but I wouldn’t bet on big production against a Green Bay defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest tight end points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 5: @ BUF): The Steelers had finally seen enough of Mitch Trubisky in week 4 after the team failed to get into the red zone and scored just 6 first half points against the lowly New York Jets. They turned to Pickett for the second half, and the final stats were wild. The Rookie completed 10-of-13 passes for 120 yards and 3 interceptions, including one on his first career attempt. Every one of his passes was caught by someone, but far too many were caught by the opponent. Despite the turnovers, Pickett did have success moving the ball and tallied 2 rushing TDs and gave the Steelers a chance to win the game. Pittsburgh would be wise to let him keep playing, but the matchup could not be worse for week 5. Through 4 games the Bills have faced the following lineup of QBs - Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tua, and Lamar Jackson – and allowed fewer fantasy points per game to them than Justin Fields & Mitch Trubisky have averaged this season. Good QBs are dicey options against this defense. A rookie making his first career start could have a nightmarish day.
QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NYJ): Tua Tagovailoa will sit out this week with a concussion, but it’ll be Teddy Bridgewater who gets the start, not Thompson. Skylar is one injury away from getting playing time against a bad defense, but if things go as planned for Miami, Thompson won’t take a snap.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 5: @ MIN): Ebner continues to play a complementary role to Khalil Herbert with David Montgomery sidelined. It’s just not a big enough role for him to have fantasy relevance given how little the Bears throw the ball. Minnesota is a plus matchup for running backs, coughing up the 5th-most points per game to the position, but Ebner has yet to reach 30 scrimmage yards in a game, and anything over that mark against the Vikings should be considered a bonus.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 5: @ BUF): Different week, same story for Warren. He’s purely a handcuff to Najee and doesn’t really have standalone value for now, especially against a daunting Buffalo defense in a game where the Steelers are 2-touchdown underdogs.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 5: @ CAR): Tyrion Davis-Price remains out this week, and Mason has played just 5 offensive snaps in the last two weeks. This backfield belongs to Jeff Wilson Jr. at least until TDP returns with Deebo Samuel operating as the change-of-pace back.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): We finally saw Kansas City start to make good on promises to get Skyy Moore involved in the offense last weekend, as the rookie had his highest route participation (25%) and target total (4) of the season. Those numbers should continue to climb as the season goes on since MVS and Mecole Hardman have predictably underwhelmed, but his playing time isn’t quite to a level where you can consider him for lineups.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): The Browns still don’t throw the ball enough to support more than a couple pass catchers, and Bell remains too far down the depth chart to be one of those. He may need an injury ahead of him to have any value before Deshaun Watson returns.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 5: @ MIN): Jones was active for the first time in week 4, and he played zero offensive snaps. There’s nothing here for now.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 5: @ LAR): With Michael Gallup back from IR it’s an open question when Tolbert will be active for a game again. He’s been inactive for 3 of the first 4 contests, and Gallup’s return makes it even harder for the rookie to carve out a role.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ GB): Wan’Dale is getting closer to returning to the lineup and having some sleeper value, but he’s trending toward being inactive again in week 5. The Giants desperately need WR help right now, but Robinson doesn’t look likely to deliver that help this week. He has a chance to be a PPR maven once he’s able to get back on the field.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): If you missed the news, Dotson is expected to be out a week or two with a hamstring injury. This would be a great matchup for the rookie if he were to play, but it’s a moot point with him ruled out.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 5: @ WAS): Like Dotson on the other side of this matchup, Burks will be sidelined for week 5 after being carted off with a turf toe injury last weekend. He was originally listed as doubtful, and was moved to IR later in the week.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McBride is worth monitoring in the coming weeks after he finally saw his first passing game action in week 4. He played a season-high 42% of the offensive snaps and pulled in 3 catches on 3 targets for 24 yards as the Cardinals used 2 tight end sets more often than they had in previous weeks. It’s a promising development, but I wouldn’t plug him into any lineups just yet. The Eagles are in the top-12 at limiting TE points and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA. If McBride’s usage this week is similar or better to what we saw in week 4, he’s going to be a sneaky option against the Seahawks in week 6. Seattle allows the most TE points per game. Things will get dicey for his usage again after week 6 when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 5: @ WAS): Okonkwo had a surprising 3-38-1 line last weekend against the Colts after seeing just 1 target in the first 3 weeks, but don’t be fooled into thinking you can plug him into lineups if you’re desperate. Okonkwo was still in a route on fewer than 20% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks in that game and was on the field for just 13 offensive snaps. Maybe that role grows in the coming weeks (especially now that Treylon Burks is on IR), but you’re just praying for a TD if you plug the rookie into any lineups this week. The Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score in the first 4 weeks.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 5: @ LAR) \
: With Dalton Schultz back in action Sunday, the rookie duo combined for 21 offensive snaps and just one target in week 4. Move along.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): Zippin’ Bailey Zappe became the first rookie QB to throw a touchdown pass this season, and he’s in line for his first career start this week with Mac Jones still battling an ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer on IR with a concussion. There is no softer landing spot he could draw for that first start than facing the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank an abysmal 28th in pass defense DVOA. Zappe’s throws look like they have less zip on them than you see from some high school QBs, but he was highly efficient at Western Kentucky last year, throwing for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 TDs in 14 games. Zappe has the upside to be a high-end QB2 this week.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Cook hasn’t seen the field or the ball much in the last two weeks, but that could change against the Steelers on Sunday. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites in this game, and the last time they won in a blowout Cook led the backfield with 11 touches and 53 scrimmage yards. Most of those touches came in the 4th quarter in garbage time, but that same kind of garbage time might exist in this game. Cook could see additional passing game work early on as well. Gabe Davis is playing through an ankle injury, and both slot receivers could be in week 5. Jamison Crowder broke his ankle and Isaiah McKenzie suffered a concussion last Sunday. Crowder is out indefinitely, and McKenzie is questionable. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been ruled out for this game. If McKenzie sits, there will be some receiving opportunities up for grabs, some of which could go to Cook. It’s impossible to rely on garbage time production in season-long leagues but Cook costs just $1,400 in DraftKings Showdown contests.
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned above with James Cook, the Bills could be missing both of their top-2 slot receivers and their tight end on Sunday against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4th-most PPR points to slot receivers this year per Sports Info Solutions. Shakir would likely be the guy who steps into the slot role if McKenzie is out. Crowder and McKenzie have averaged a combined 8.5 targets per game. Shakir has a realistic shot at 5-6 targets in this one, and there is value in that in a plus matchup with Josh Allen throwing him the ball.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): In deeper leagues there’s a chance Thornton was forgotten about after he suffered a broken collarbone in the preseason. He’s worth a stash in those leagues if he’s still available. Thornton made a speedier than expected recovery from the injury and has been activated from IR ahead of week 5. It’s hard to trust a Bill Belichick drafted wide receiver, but Thornton ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and has serious big play upside. I’d expect him to be eased in after missing so much time, but he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues. No one beyond Jakobi Meyers has proven to be irreplaceable in this WR group.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Likely is coming off a zero-target game in week 4, but his playing time has remained fairly steady this season (20-26 snaps played each game) and the Ravens will be without Rashod Bateman this week. With Bateman out, Likely should be the 3rd option in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. The Bengals are a middling TE defense (19th-most points allowed per game to TEs), but there is an opportunity for Likely to have his best game to-date as a pro.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Cam Brate has been ruled out with a concussion, and Otton is in line to start in his place against the Falcons, who allow the 3rd-most TE points per game. Otton garnered 4 targets on Sunday night against the Chiefs with Brate banged up. Don’t get too carried away here. There are game script concerns that could limit overall passing volume. Tom Brady has averaged 47 passing attempts in Tampa’s two losses this season and 30.5 attempts in their wins. Otton could be in line for 4+ catches if this game stays competitive.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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2022.09.29 20:22 texan0322 Domination Station Optimizer Setup for DraftKings – NFL Week 4