Does anybody know how to check how many tickets have been sold yet for a concert that is standing only? Normally I look at the seating chart but obviously I can't with this one. It's the Måneskin Adelaide concert in Adelaide.

So I’ve never been a huge concert person (if the title didn’t tip you off), so I’m genuinely curious what the allure is for people that really like to attend live concerts.
My argument for against them are…
-They are generally very overpriced if you choose to go to an even semi-popular artist.
-Often live music just doesn’t sound as crisp and good as what the song sounds like out of the studio.
-crowds, I shouldn’t have to say much more… but you’re with swarms of other people, waiting in line, fumbling to get to your seats, etc.
-if it’s an outdoor concert it’s rarely ever held when the temp is comfortable, it’s always the hottest days of the entire year.
-then there’s just all the extra hassle you go thru, finding parking, overpriced merch and concession, etc.
I think many would argue live sports is the similar way, my main push back against that is that Homefield advantage is a real thing, and you’re much more part of the atmosphere when it’s sports.
With this being said, I love smaller more intimate live musical performances… like smaller bars and venues, acoustic sets… so this is mainly aimed at the stadium concerts.
Oh and I’m basically going to arguably the largest concert of the year this summer haha

A group of coworkers and I became friends and started hanging out. They invited me to a Dodger’s game and I accepted. I was super excited all week. Also, (I know this is not recommended), I’m dating one of my coworkers, and was happy to be able to spend more time together after work.
Our group met up and drank before we got to the game. We drank a bit more in the car. I probably had about 5-6 standard drinks.
I remember walking into the stadium and through security… vaguely walking to our seats … then all of a sudden, I’m in a bed in the emergency room in the hospital , IV in my arm and covered in puke.
I had literally no idea what happened; I texted all my coworkers but no one replied to me. I texted the girl I’m dating and she said … “This is our breakup”. I asked why and she said she’s “never seen anyone as fucked up as me.”
Funny thing is she drinks alone after work every single day of her life. But whatever.
TLDR; I fucked up by not only hanging out with coworkers but also dating one.. and being so repulsive I made her break up with me.
Awesome :)

The gas giant loomed large in the viewport, ballooning as the ship coasted toward it, the colorful blue hues of its swirling bands reflecting the glow of the system’s star.
Darren could make out the bright, scarred surface of an ice moon drifting lazily past, framed against the rivers of flowing hydrogen and helium. Silhouetted against the Jupiter-mass object was their destination – Halfpoint Station.
Having come from Earth, which was still a backwater when compared to many of the Imperium’s more developed worlds, the sheer size and grandeur of the structure took his breath away.
It was hard to gauge its true scale in the vacuum of space where there was no atmospheric haze, and there were no landmarks for reference, the unfiltered light creating harsh shadows. As they drew nearer, however, he was able to pick out some of the massive fuel tankers that swarmed its ports like clouds of gnats.
Those vessels put anything created by Humanity to shame – their purpose being to dip into the upper atmosphere of the gas giant, harvesting its resources to fuel the ships that made their berth here.
Calling it enormous was an understatement. It must have been nine miles tall, the main hull of the station forming a long, relatively thin vertical shaft. Surrounding that shaft were half a dozen rotating rings, each one connected to the central column by spokes, the pinpoints of innumerable windows glinting as they slowly turned.
At its apex was a dome of immense proportions, sitting proudly atop the structure, the crystalline material that made up its transparent hull glittering in the starlight. Inside, he could make out glimpses of regal skyscrapers and patches of parkland – an entire city encapsulated in a habitat that had a breathtaking view of the planet.
Darren pursed his lips as he looked down at the device on his wrist, the tiny display showing the familiar text of an article he must have read at least a dozen times by this point.
Halfpoint Station was situated on the outskirts of the Imperium’s sphere of influence, a region of space known only as the Periphery. This put it soundly outside of Purp jurisdiction, but the place still saw a lot of traffic, as the station was right in the middle of a relatively well-traveled shipping route between the three big powers.
While it had started its life as little more than a place to fuel up and get resupplied, being located outside any of the major spheres of influence had its benefits, and the station had garnered a bit of a reputation for its more permissive policies. Now, it was said to be populated by hired guns, smugglers, gamblers, and anyone else who might appreciate discretion.
The Human frowned as he looked out the window once more and tried to reconcile the gleaming edifice before him with the dark reputation the article in his hands presented.
He didn’t have long to dwell on it before the pilot’s crackly voice came through a hidden intercom in the cabin, informing the passengers that they were commencing docking procedures.
The woman spoke in accented Shil. What that accent was, Darren had no clue, but he knew it wasn’t the same one spoken by his professors – linguistic or mechanical.
He glanced around at his fellow travelers, seeing a few species that he didn’t recognize, along with the more familiar Shil’vati. The aliens were easily identifiable by the purple hue of their skin, their sharp tusks, and their seven-foot height.
Several of them returned his gaze, some curious, some covetous.
Males were rare in the Imperium.
Hell, males were rare, period.
By the standards of most races out in the galaxy, Humanity were the strange ones for having an equal number of men and women. Even six years into the occupation, most were still struggling to adapt to the new paradigm brought on by that reality.
Darren was no exception.
Still, he managed to ignore the stares, turning his attention to the smart display on his wrist, bringing up his itinerary. He was headed to Hab-Ring Five, and the only information that he’d been given beyond that were some coordinates to who-knew-where.
He sighed, wishing – not for the first time – that he might have a fellow first timer to converse with.
Unfortunately, that was a pipe dream.
The lack of other Humans on his ship wasn’t surprising. The Imperium had only recently relaxed enough to begin authorizing travel visas allowing Humans to leave Earth, and his kind were still a rarity on the Galactic stage.
As to why he was out here out in the ass end of space?
He’d been offered a job.
He was an engineer by trade, at least according to his degree, and he specialized in the combination of alien and Human technology. It might seem like an oddly specific skillset, but it was one that was in high demand, as just about every industry on Earth was trying to take advantage of the opportunities provided by the Imperium’s literal space-age technology.
It was complicated work, but he was quite good at it, if he said so himself – and his professors seemed to agree. His gift had catapulted him through university and had apparently landed him a very lucrative offer to take up a position on Halfpoint.
How they’d heard of him, he wasn’t too sure. Nor did he truthfully know exactly what the job entailed. Apparently, he was to be briefed on-location.
Regardless, off-world work was a rare opportunity for any Human, let alone one fresh out of school, and visiting an alien space station was a lot more interesting than backpacking around Europe for a year.
Whatever happened, it was going to be an adventure.
The ship matched velocity with one of the rotating rings, the structure at least half a mile tall in its own right, covered in tiny windows that made it look like a whole city block had been condensed down into the shape of a donut.
Now that he was a little closer, Darren could see that the station was actually far from pristine. Its hull was pocked with haphazard repairs, the newer sections shining brighter than their older counterparts, its armored panels pitted with little craters from space debris and micro-meteorite impacts.
The ship lined up with a docking port, and an umbilical walkway began to extrude from the ring, reaching out towards them. It looked like the jib of a crane, covered over with a flexible material that bore a suspicious resemblance to a grey tarp.
Surely it wasn’t actually a tarp? No, it had to be some kind of alien supertech – too advanced for him to recognize at a glance.
Right?
His thoughts did little to reassure him as the umbilical connected to the shuttle’s airlock with a tangible thud.
Shaking his head, he retrieved his travel bag, then made his way down the aisle to join the queue of passengers who were waiting to disembark. More of them crammed in behind him, and he tried to ignore their uncomfortable proximity.
He hadn’t actually spent a lot of time around aliens during his schooling. One of his professors had been a Shil, but she had been professional to a fault and had always kept a healthy distance from her students.
Of course, she had still managed to be rather intimidating despite that, her head seeming to scrape the ceiling every time she stepped into the classroom. However, Darren was rapidly discovering that being surrounded by women who stood head and shoulders above him was a different experience altogether.
It was nothing to get worked up over, though. He just needed to-
The Shil standing behind him pressed close – uncomfortably close – Darren swearing that there was room enough in the aisle for her to keep her distance. Suddenly, he felt a sharp twinge in his rear.
Had she just...pinched him? No, it had to have been a mistake.
He turned to glance over his shoulder, looking up at the towering Purp. “Sorry, Ma’am, I must have bumped into you.”
Her sly smile faded as she furrowed her brow in confusion. Before she had time to formulate a reply, the intercom above the exit beeped.
“Oh, looks like we’re moving again!” Darren chimed as he began to follow the queue. “Sorry!”
He followed the procession of towering women into the passenger ship’s airlock. Both of the pressurized doors were open, and before him stretched the umbilical. The worryingly thin material that protected them from the deadly vacuum of space was wrapped taut around a metal frame, and the walkway beneath his feet was made up of a simple grate.
After a short walk, they emerged into a cavernous dock area, so large that it was more like standing in some kind of indoor stadium than anything that could be compared to a space station. There were stacks of shipping containers and unidentifiable machinery everywhere he looked.
It was a challenge not to stop and examine the equipment, each new sight piquing his interest, each strange device begging to be investigated. As he followed the other passengers to the far end of the room – his head on a swivel – he almost bumped into one of the containers. To his surprise, it was floating a foot off the ground, suspended on an anti-gravity cushion.
It was funny – no matter how many times he saw it, it never stopped being surreal to see something just…float.
As he stooped to look beneath it, an irritated dockworker leaned out from behind it to yell at whoever was in her way. She stopped when she saw him, raising a skeptical eyebrow. She was a Rakiri, if Darren remembered correctly. She resembled a towering werewolf, a pair of cat-like eyes peering out from beneath her black fur, her facial features strangely leonine. She was clad in dirty, yellow coveralls that hung loosely from her broad shoulders, exposing the ragged tank top that she wore beneath it. Tufts of her dark coat poked out around the faded garment, giving her a surprisingly fluffy appearance.
“You lost, boy?” she asked as she shooed him out of her path. “Stay behind the yellow warning markings unless you want to get that cute butt smushed,” she added with a nod toward the deck. She continued to push her heavy container, moving it effortlessly on its gravity cushion.
More dock workers were assembling to stare at him, perhaps having never seen a Human before. Or perhaps it was because he was male? It was hard to tell. Either way, a small crowd of yellow-clad women saw him off, a couple of them hooting at him and waving. Not sure if this was some kind of alien greeting, he shyly waved back, eliciting laughter from them after a moment of surprise.
One started to make her way over to him before a menacing growl from her superior made her freeze in place sheepishly. Darren took that as his cue to move on – he didn’t want to get anyone else in trouble by being in the way.
He arrived at a security gate, and after being asked to show his visa, he was subjected to a very thorough – and in his opinion unnecessary – pat-down. Once he was cleared, he emerged into the station proper. He stepped out of the way of the women behind him, then set his travel bag down on the metal deck, taking in the alien sights and sounds for a moment.
Far from being a sterile, clinical environment, he found himself in a bustling bazaar worthy of any city back on Earth. It scarcely felt like he was standing inside a station at all, what passed for the ceiling so high above his head that he could barely make out the crisscrossing support beams and maintenance catwalks.
It was styled like a cramped street, too small for cars, almost like the city center of some old European town had been reimagined in an industrial style. Civilian quarters that resembled apartment blocks rose up towards the ceiling, connecting to it in some places, likely leading up to higher levels of the station.
In every nook and cranny – anywhere there was room – the denizens of the hab-ring had set up little stalls where they were hawking their wares to the tourists who had just boarded. Colorful awnings fluttered in the artificial breeze from the air recyclers, and insulated cables that had been patched from the station’s systems trailed along walls and floors, powering streetside food stands and colorful neon signs.
Speaking of the denizens, they came in all shapes and sizes. Darren had never seen so many varieties of alien in one place before. He could make out a few Shil and Rakiri, but most were unknown to him, the varied hues of their skin and clothes creating a bustling sea of color.
He checked the device on his wrist again, pulling up the coordinates that his new employer had forwarded to him. This was indeed Hab-Ring Five, and he’d been given what passed for an address in this strange environment. Hefting his bag once more, he made his way into the throng, having to dodge and weave between the towering aliens. Many of them barely seemed to register his presence, probably due to his comparatively small stature, though some seemed to stop and stare in confusion.
Well, I suppose Humans are pretty new on the galactic scene, he thought to himself.
The scents of strange, alien food assailed him as he navigated the cramped streets, a few of the criers singling him out. They had sharp instincts, he’d give them that. It seemed the locals could smell a tourist at thirty paces.
Maybe it was all the staring he was doing?
Eventually, he arrived at his destination, glancing up from his display to see a dingy bar. It was open to the street, built into an overhang at the base of one of the many buildings, little more than a long counter with a few stools. Above it was a blinking neon sign in a script that he couldn’t read. As he made his way inside and struggled up onto one of the tall stools, the small handful of patrons who were sitting off to his left paused their conversation to examine him.
They were Nighkru, their goat-like horns and the bruise-purple hue of their skin giving them away. Their silver eyes were striking, almost seeming to glow in the dim light of the bar, as reflective as those of a cat. Their clothing was all tight leather and straps, their skin strategically exposed in places to show off their stunning bioluminescent tattoos, the swirling patterns trailing down slender limbs and across toned midriffs.
He kept his gaze aimed forward, knowing that their kind didn’t think much of the Imperium to which he now belonged.
…Then again, that was true for pretty much every race that wasn’t a part of the massive interstellar empire. Say what you would about the Purps, but they knew how to make an impression.
The bartender walked over to him, leaning on the counter as she looked him up and down skeptically. It was another Rakiri like the dockworkers, her feline nose twitching as she took in his scent.
“You lost, or do you want something to drink?” she asked.
“No thank you, I’m waiting for someone,” he replied sheepishly as he lowered his eyes to his device again.
He was right on time, but as he looked around, there was no sign of his contact. He was supposed to meet them here, right?
The Rakiri shrugged her furry shoulders, then left him to his own devices, moving over to the small group of Nighkru.
Perhaps one of them was his contact?
He certainly hoped not. While he didn’t have anything against a person enjoying themselves with a good drink after hours, it wasn’t a good way to make a positive first impression on a prospective employee.
Fortunately for him, the surprise on one of the trio’s grey skinned faces when she happened to blearily peer in his direction dashed that possibility. Just a trio of young women out for a drink.
Unfortunately for him, after a few hastily whispered words to her friends, the group made their way over to him.
“Don’t see many males round these parts,” one of them said, her faux leather getup creaking as she planted her hands on the bar to his left. Another leaned on the counter to his right, the third posting up behind him.
“A Human, too,” the woman to his right added with a sly chuckle. “Now, what’s a Human doing all alone out on the Periphery?”
“I didn’t think the Purps were letting their pets off the leash.” the one behind him snickered.
“I don’t know,” the first said with an exaggerated shrug. “Maybe he snuck out in search of a real woman? I think we’ve all heard how Humans can be.”
That set the three of them laughing.
All the while, Darren wasn’t sure where to look, turning his head left and right as he struggled to pick a Nighkru. He settled on the woman to his left, having to lift his head to meet her gaze, those reflective eyes shining like a pair of silver coins.
“I...uh...was actually supposed to be meeting someone here.” he stammered, a little of his anxiety bleeding through.
The Nighkru gave him a warm smile that wasn’t reflected in her eyes, leaning a little closer. He tried to pull away reflexively but found another Nighkru waiting for him, something rather soft pressing against his back.
“Well, I don’t see anyone else in here but me and my friends,” one of them said as she tutted dramatically. “Maybe they stood you up?”
“Poor form, that,” the one behind him whispered into his ear. He lurched in his seat, surprised by her proximity. “Leaving a pretty young thing like you hanging.”
The first one nodded, as if that was a piece of sagely wisdom. “I know – how about my friends and I give you a personal tour of the station to make up for it?” she asked, reaching out to brush a piece of errant fluff from his collar. “We’ll even carry your luggage for you – we’re nice like that.”
She signaled to one of her compatriots with a curt nod, who then plucked his travel bag off the deck.
“Oh, that’s really not-”
He tried to stand, but he was cut off as two of the women placed their hands on his shoulders, pushing him back down into his seat. Their touch was gentle, but firm, letting him know that he wasn't going anywhere.
Darren looked to the Rakiri bartender for help, feeling more than a little overwhelmed by the turn of events, but she was staying out of it. She was feigning disinterest, cleaning a glass with a rag that didn’t look clean enough for the job.
It was clear that he wouldn’t be getting any help from her.
Was this really going to be his first experience on the station – kidnapped by a gang of alien grifters?
Just as he was getting ready to – likely ineffectually – start swinging like his life depended on it, he heard a voice ring out in a language he didn’t recognize.
The Nighkru turned their heads as one, and he followed their gaze, seeing another of their kind step in from the street. Her skin had the same twilight hue, her silvery hair pulled back into a long ponytail that trailed behind her as she strode towards them. She wore a jet-black body suit that left little to the imagination, so tight that it might have been sewn onto her, the garment open at the front to expose a chiseled midriff and the beginnings of her cleavage. Her eyes were mesmerizing, his gaze drawn to the glowing tattoos that served to accentuate them.
Oddly, unlike the trio surrounding him, she had no horns.
The stranger walked with purpose, her heels clicking on the deck, her hair swishing behind her as she came to a stop to stare down the three other women. They were already backing off, the Nighkru who had taken his bag setting it back down gingerly beside his seat. Did they know this person? They seemed so wary of her.
“Maybe we’ll see you around,” one of them whispered, her hand lingering on his shoulder for a moment before she followed her friends out into the street.
Once they were finally out of sight, Darren breathed a sigh of relief and turned to thank the newcomer. Before he could utter so much as a word, she beat him to the punch.
“You shouldn’t wander around Halfpoint alone,” she said, skipping the preamble. Her voice had a melodic tone, one that was almost musical to Darren’s ears. She planted her hands on her hips, scrutinizing him with a skeptical expression. “You’re just asking for trouble.”
“I’m just...waiting for someone,” he replied. “Thank you, by the way. I’m-”
“Do you have a weapon on you?” she asked, cutting him off. “A handgun under that jacket? Defense spray? A pocket knife?”
“What? No,” he replied, his brow furrowing. “Why would I have a gun?”
Even with a few inches of titanium-alloy plating between everyone aboard and a messy death by explosive decompression, using a firearm on the station seemed risky.
She snorted derisively, almost as though she couldn’t believe his reply.
“For your sake, I hope that whoever you’re waiting for is smarter than you are,” she said with a roll of her silver eyes. “This isn’t Earth, boy. There are no Shil Marines around to babysit you. Next time you want to play tourist, go somewhere closer to home.”
With a flick of her long hair, she turned about, vanishing into the crowd once more to leave him sitting at the bar in confusion.
Darren felt another hand on his shoulder and turned to see an Edixi wearing grease-stained overalls standing behind him. The tool belt that hung loosely about her hips let him know that she was a mechanic before she’d even had time to open her mouth.
Her kind were evolved for an aquatic environment, and although they were fully amphibious, they retained many of their ancient features. Their bodies were smooth and streamlined, with lean, lightly-muscled frames that made them look like Olympic swimmers. Her eyes were a striking ocean-green, and her azure skin was patterned with faded tiger stripes, darkening as it neared her extremities.
“You’re the new engineer, right?” she chirped excitedly.
“Darren Fogle, pleased to meet you,” he confirmed as he extended a hand. She took it, shaking it eagerly, and he noted that her fingers were webbed.
He was a little surprised by how smooth her skin was. Given the sharklike appearance of the Edixi – and her vocation – he’d expected it to be rough and scaly. Maybe cold and slimy, too. By contrast, it was warm and soft, her small scales smooth like a snake’s rather than sharp like those of a fish.
Odd.
“Oh, it is. It very much is. The boss told me to fetch you,” she said before turning back towards the street. “Don’t get lost, you hear? There are some rough types around these parts.”
Yes, she could say that again. He stooped to pick up his bag, then hurried after her, trying not to lose sight of her in the crowd. He also belatedly realized that she hadn’t told him her own name.
Was that an Edixi thing or was she just in a hurry?
The mechanic led him through the streets, which seemed to be arranged in a kind of grid pattern, always flanked by the towering hab-blocks. It was as challenging as ever to navigate when so many of the station’s inhabitants stood a head taller than him. It made him feel like a bug that was trying to avoid being stepped on.
He could only assume he’d get used to it. His guide seemed to have no problem getting around, and she was a few inches shorter than him.
Their destination was some kind of service elevator – a large platform that seemed designed to carry heavy cargo up from the docks, wide enough that a couple of trucks could have parked on it side by side. There were still a few cargo containers stacked off to one side that hadn’t been unloaded yet.
He watched as the woman hit a touch panel beside the double doors, and they began to slide shut, the platform lurching as Darren felt it start to rise. There was no grinding of machinery, no vibrations, only a sensation of getting heavier. It was obviously gravity-manipulation tech. It wasn’t too surprising – the Shil seemed to use it for just about everything, so it wasn’t too strange that the rest of the universe did as well.
Convergent technological development, he could almost imagine his Shil instructor saying as they started to descend. Good tech is good tech.
The hab-ring’s many levels flashed by one by one, until finally, the elevator slid to a smooth stop. Darren followed the happily humming mechanic out into a garage, his eyes lighting up as he took in his new surroundings.
Were those… mecha?
The bay’s walls were lined with bulky harnesses that were obviously designed to hold the machines in place, a few of the berths already occupied by half-disassembled vehicles.
They were!
“Real life mecha,” he mumbled.
As a mechanic, he wasn’t ignorant of the genre. After all, what kind of engineer didn’t hold a soft spot for giant stompy robots? Of course, as an engineer, he also held an inherent disdain for anyone that actually thought said machines were even remotely practical outside of the realm of fiction.
The Square Cube Law was a harsh mistress.
The long and short of it was that if you doubled a machine's height while keeping it the same shape, you ended up with four times the muscle power moving eight times the mass. As a result, instead of having the same relative agility as the original, the double-sized machine actually had only half.
That was why ants could lift so much relative to their weight. If you scaled one up, you’d end up with a much less impressive power to weight ration.
And, the problem only got worse the bigger you went. Giant robots would be slow, cumbersome, and they would inevitably suffer from exploding ankles if they tried to move too fast. They’d also sink in just about any terrain that was even slightly porous.
All in all, mecha were a cool concept with absolutely zero real world applications.
Which was why he was so stunned to see some in real life. Sure, the Shil military liked to use exos, but they were really just power armor by any other name with thrusters attached. Besides, the only reason those things could skip around like they did was because they had anti-grav generators…
His thoughts trailed off as an idea occurred to him. He jogged over to the nearest machine, peering up at the twenty-foot humanoid monstrosity. Its legs had been detached, leaving only a bulky torso covered in half-stripped sensory equipment, lenses and scanners visible where their protective covers had been removed. The cockpit was open, revealing the pilot’s seat, along with the surrounding neural interface cables that hung loose like the entrails of some mechanical beast. Its weapon attachments were empty, but it was nonetheless an awe-inspiring sight.
Sure enough, there were two oversized humps on the back. One was clearly for the thing’s fusion engine – and the other must have held the anti-grav generator.
“Darren?” the mechanic asked, having only just realized that he wasn’t behind her. “Aren’t you coming?”
“Y-yeah,” he said, jogging for a few paces to catch up. “That’s a mecha!”
The blue-hued alien nodded slowly. “Yes?”
“A mecha,” he reiterated.
Which prompted another slow nod. “You’ve never seen a gladiator mech before?”
“No.”
“Didn’t they tell you what job you’d be doing?” the mechanic asked, cocking her head in a rather adorable manner.
“No?” This time it was his turn to cock his head.
Several emotions seemed to fly across the alien’s face. He saw surprise, confusion, and dismay before she finally settled on irritation.
“Typical,” she grunted. “Just… follow me.”
AN: https://youtu.be/a3Xp1WhRQ9Q

You have to be firm and let them know as soon as class begins that you are the adult in the room, you will not tolerate students doing whatever they please, you have to explain what your expectations are, what punishments will happen if rules are not followed etc.
I subbed for a 4th grade class the other day. Teacher said in the sub plans that in the morning (after the bell rings), the students are to complete their warm up and practice spelling and writing in their ELA journals in silence during the first twenty five minutes of class. Kids start coming in, going "We have a sub!" and I can see from their grins that they think this about to be a day where they get to entertain themselves and turn the classroom into a funhouse. Two minutes later as soon as the morning bell rang, the students immediately went to their computer cart, switched seats to be near their friends and took it upon themselves to play games and talk at a lunchroom-voice volume.
Guess what? Without saying a word I went around, closed their Chromebooks, collected them and put them on the teacher desk. Then I projected the seating chart and said if you not are seated exactly how this chart says you should be within the next five seconds, you will be spending the remainder of the day in the office with the principal. Do not test me and do not play games with me." Kids scattered left and right to find their seats and sat quietly until I spoke again.
I told them in a very stern voice "this is not a free day for you to do whatever you feel like. You will not disrespect me, you will not treat me any differently than your teacher and you will not get on anything other than what I ask you to. Do I make myself clear?" They nodded. Then I said it again but louder "Do I make myself CLEAR?". They all got out their ELA journals and worked quietly.
My point in this is that children are manipulative. Some are good students but you have some that aren't and think that your presence as an adult is not something that should be taken seriously. You have to be firm and establish authority with them immediately or else they will walk all over you and turn the day into a circus. If you let them do as they please they will become feral and ruin your day. Let it be known immediately that you aren't having that and what happens if they try it. Don't try to be their best buddy or the most fun substitute ever, lay down the law and then get through the sub plans provided.

Los Angeles FC @ Colorado Rapids
Game Day Poster
MLS Season 2023 - Match #5
Saturday, April 1st 2023
Approximately 6:39 p.m. PT
Location: Dick's Sporting Goods Park 6000 Victory Way, Commerce City, CO 80022
TV: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Radio: 710 AM ESPN, ESPN LA App, 980 AM La Mera Mera
Outdoor Weather: ☀️ 62 Degrees, 23% Humidity, 10 mph Wind, 0% Precipitation
Dicks Sporting Goods Park A-Z
LAFC Away Day Seats - Section 136
Previews
Los Angeles FC Preview
Colorado Rapids Preview
Player Availability Report
Questionable
Cole Bassett (left hamstring) (Rapids)
Braian Galvan (groin) (Rapids)
Out
Maxime Crepeau (right leg fracture) (LAFC)
Yaya Toure (right knee) (Rapids)
Moise Bombito (left knee) (Rapids)
Jack Price (Achilles) (Rapids)
Aboubacar Keita (left hamstring) (Rapids)
Tickets
Ticketmaster
Referees
REF: Drew Fischer
AR1: Kyle Atkins
AR2: Felisha Mariscal
4TH: Diego Blas
VAR: Malik Badawi
AVAR: Tyler Wyrostek

Finding this subreddit has been so therapeutic and validating for me. I’m 26, married to the love of my life (32M) with the most amazing 5yo stepdaughter.
Reading all of your stories has inspired me to sit down and type out my own. I must warn you, there are times when I am the villain. Buckle up. This is a small novel.
If we start at the very beginning, my DH began dating HCBM (33) when they were very young in their early 20s. Shortly into their relationship it became clear to DH that she was struggling with very severe alcoholism. I cannot even begin to write out all of the stories I have heard from DH about her alcoholism. He was very young, didn’t have a positive model for a healthy relationship as a child. He believed he could help HCBM. They were extremely on and off together for almost 7 years. Every time he’d try to break up with her she would weasel her way back in. She would go as far as showing up at his family events because she had his family wrapped around her finger (don’t worry, that changed. Read on.) She almost drank herself to death several times. The police in her town know her by name and recognize her car because her family has had to call in for welfare checks so many times. She’s had bits where she’s gone missing for several hours. Been listed as a missing person. Had the police ping her phone. I’ve read the police reports myself.
Where do I even begin with her family? Her parents are extremely proud. They own two businesses in their small town. They’re the kind of people who are very obsessed with image and making people think they’re wealthy. HCBM started drinking when she was 16. Her parents would deal with her problem by sweeping it under the rug and hiding it. They cared more about their pride than getting her the help she needed. When they were together, my DH was often the one who would drive her to AA meetings. HCBM didn’t like AA because she felt she was above the other people there. Her family now despises my DH, and weaves a narrative that she drank because of her toxic relationship with him. Though her drinking problems existed long before and after their relationship.
I’ll share a few stores in particular with the goal of establishing the absolute delusion that HCBM feeds to anyone who will listen about my DH.
There was one evening where they were at my DH’s uncle’s house in the city. The thing about HCBM is that you never saw her drink until she was drunk. She’d sneak in a bathroom or what have you to drink. DH and HCBM got into some kind of argument and she ran off into the city late at night. DH spent several hours driving around the city searching for her until he finally found her in a bar, making out with a random guy. He said “you can take her home tonight” and left. Several hours later in the wee hours of the morning, HCBM stumbled back to the uncle’s house, wasted and crying.
Another occasion, DH was at work and HCBM was at his apartment (she did not live there) and went to hang out with his upstairs neighbors who were girls. She got drunk with them. When DH got home, he tried to explain to his neighbors that she had a problem and shouldn’t be drinking…. They said “don’t control her! That’s manipulative”. DH went back downstairs, HCBM followed, and they fought. She ran back to the neighbors crying and the girls stormed down into his apartment saying “What did you do to her? What did you do to her?!”
A different time HCBM was drunk she had locked herself in DH’s roommate’s room. He was trying to explain to her that she needed to come out, that it wasn't his room and she couldn’t be in there. HCBM called DH’s mom (now my MIL) and began wailing “he’s doing it again, he’s being crazy again!” God knows what she was talking about. Eventually DH called HCBM’s dad who came to pick her up. HCBM’s dad dragged her by her arm down the stairs rather roughly, and DH got upset, like “hey I get that she is drunk and being a problem but you can’t manhandle her like that” so HCBM’s dad responded my shoving DH up against a wall and holding his arm to his throat.
Shall I go on? There are dozens more. The worst is yet to come.
Anyways, about four years into their relationship, after multiple incidents of infidelity on her part, DH started chatting with other women sporadically. He says he knew it was wrong, but he thought if he could show himself there were other women out there who could make him happy, other stable relationships he could be in, he might be able to get away from HCBM. It was about five years into their relationship that DH actually cheated. And so begins HCBM’s favorite narrative, that DH was an awful, unsupportive unfaithful partner who drove her to drinking because he was so shady. She will never, ever consider the fact that my DH to this day is traumatized from their relationship. He’s been in therapy several times and every single therapist identifies her as a narcissist.
Several years ago when DH and I met I was in college. We had an on and off fling for a while on the coattails of him trying to end it with HCBM once and for all after over six years stuck in a cycle. I think my DH made poor decisions, dumb even. But I sympathize with the trauma bond he was stuck in with this woman, and how difficult it was for him to cut ties with someone who would go to great lengths to insert herself in his life, and with the pressure of his family saying he should be with her. He cut things off with me and fell back in with HCBM. Lo and behold… HCBM gets pregnant. This may be shocking…. But it was not a good situation to be bringing a baby into. HCBM was 28 at the time. She was (and still is) working for her mom at the business she owns because she had gotten fired from every other job for showing up drunk. A side note, her mom owns a gymnastics center where she is a teacher. My DH has told me about several times her mother would text him to come pick her up because she’d shown up drunk. Her mom would get her out of there and just sub in another instructor to cover her ass. Anyways, DH was terrified. However, DH grew up without a father, so there was no way he wasn’t going to be involved in his child’s life. It is an impossible thing to talk about in hindsight because I love my SD so dearly, she turns mine and DH’s world. But DH told HCBM to terminate initially. And to be fair, he was right. It was not a stable situation to bring a child into. Would I reverse time and change anything? Never in a million years.
As you may have guessed, HCBM decided to keep the baby. She repeatedly told DH that if he left, he would not see his child. DH was stuck and miserable. During her pregnancy, while HDBM was parading about as if they were this cute happy couple, DH began to miss me. He realized he had real feelings for me, and he reached out. I loved him the moment I met him, so I was thrilled. I’ll keep this part concise; DH began cheating on HCBM with me, and I knew. It was an ugly decision on both of our parts. Despite how much I loathe HCBM, she is a person. She did not deserve that. DH and I are both pretty ashamed about our choices back then. I’ll go into detail later about how both DH and I have tried to atone for our actions.
When she was about 7 months pregnant, HCBM caught on and contacted me. Those conversations are forever burned in my mind. She said some of the most disconnected, ridiculous shit I’ve ever seen. She was obsessed with the image she was trying to portray to everyone about her life. I’ll never forget one conversation where we were discussing their daughter’s impending arrival… I had said something along the lines of “do you think it’s wise to bring a child into this situation,” and she said “I have lots of help. I’m old enough.”
“I’m old enough.”
Like she’s a kid trying to convince her parents to let her stay out past midnight.
DH and I broke things off before SD arrived. I was heartbroken, but let’s be real, that was a mess. An entire mess.
Still, HCBM thought it was just a brilliant idea for her and DH to move in together. So her parent’s rented them a house in their small town…. DH kept paying the rent on his apartment the city about 45 minutes away. DH has told me how miserable their relationship was, and HCBM knew all about his affair with me. But like I said, she was desperately trying to create this pretend life for herself.
SD arrives, a day I am so glad to celebrate each year. She is truly the joy of my life. DH cried more than she did. He was instantly in love with his baby girl.
About three weeks later, HCBM is back on the bottle.
DH told me about how he’d come home from work and find her drunk. She’d grab the baby and lock herself in a bedroom and cry. DH feared for his child’s safety.
HCBM was only able to breastfeed for a month or so because she stopped producing milk due to heinous dieting. She was obsessed with getting back to her pre-pregnancy weight. She would eat only miso soup for days on end. This poor relationship to food comes into play later. HCBM’s mother was always over at the house. Cleaning up, buying them things. Contributing to the facade.
DH was severely depressed. He continued to stay with HCBM to monitor her drinking and watch out for his daughter. They got to a point where DH would sleep on the couch. One night DH came home and HCBM was drunk again with SD in her care. DH called her parents who came rushing over to remedy the situation as they always do. Shortly after they arrived, HCBM had slumped over on the couch and became unresponsive. An ambulance was called. DH says it was one of his most traumatic memories holding his baby daughter watching the EMT’s resuscitate her mother wondering how he would raise this girl on his own.
After a hospital stay, HCBM returned home and her parents ordered pizza and put on a movie and pretended as if nothing had happened. That was the routine. When DH expressed his anger, his justifiable concern for what was going on, HCBM’s parents treated him as though he was the problem, he was an asshole for bringing it up and blaming her.
It wasn’t long after this, SD must’ve been around eight months old that HCBM was on a binge and DH returned home from work to find the house empty. He frantically began calling people to locate SD when HCBM’s parents informed him that she was with them, and that HCBM had crawled out a window and was missing. A missing person’s report was filed. HCBM’s father told police to check ditches and park benches, as she could often be found there. She turned out to be at some random man’s house, and was located about 36 hours later.
DH was at the end of his ropes. He took the police report and lawyered up secretly.
Here’s a fun new component to the story, remember how I said that DH had began sleeping on the couch? In said police report, it is documented that DH and HCBM were not in a relationship and were merely roommates. Because that was the situation. Behind the scenes, HCBM had met the man of her dreams. Let’s call him PF….. for psycho fiance. Yes, they’re engaged now. We’ll get to that part. PF randomly messaged HCBM on facebook and they began talking. PF was a recovering alcoholic in his 30s with no driver’s license due to a DUI.
Now, recall when HCBM was missing? Her parents searched through her facebook accounts to try and locate her and found her messages with PF, they explained their daughter’s drinking problem and asked PF if she may be with him. She was not. They had not even met yet. But PF thinks this woman who clearly has severe personal issues is just the cream of the crop. He decides to take her out to lunch. By the end of their lunch date, he is love-bombing the daylights out of her. Calling her his wife, his galaxy, all of this grandiose crap.
Two weeks after they met, PF got HCBM’s name tattooed on him. While DH was trying to sort out a plan of action with his lawyer…. HCBM informs him that he has to move out so that PF can move in because he will soon be without a place to live. She wants to invite this man she’s known for three weeks to live with her and her baby daughter. I’ve seen the message she sent to DH, it reads, “I know it seems fast but I know in my heart that he is so good.” HCBM’s parents are thrilled.
Less than a week after PF had moved in and DH was out, the ex parte motion was filed. DH was granted full emergency custody of SD until a hearing could be held. HCBM did not see SD for nine days… and of course, DH was the villain for this.
At the hearing. DH was awarded majority custody, with HCBM being allowed one overnight a week. PF was not permitted to be present when SD was there for overnights until CPS could investigate.
Now, HCBM’s parents funneled money for lawyers, rent, utilities, basically any adult expense HCBM needs is taken care of by her parents. DH did not have the same luxury. He was working himself to death as a single dad trying to pay for his lawyer while the court battle ensued. Almost two months later, DH contacted me. We hadn’t spoken in close to a year. I was off living my own life almost halfway through college. DH just needed someone to talk to about it, and still had very strong feelings for me. I was a shoulder for him to lean on.
We began hooking up, with no real intention to enter into a relationship. I met SD and would watch her while he was at work. There was an obvious deep love between DH and me, but the circumstances were just so insane. Plus, HCBM despised me, and was weaving stories to the court about how DH was an emotionally abusive partner, a narcissist and the reason for all her drinking.
DH and I did not want the drama of HCBM knowing I was around. Since we were operating under the guise that this was just an indulgence and would end at some point, we kept our interactions a secret.
Then, the universe must’ve thought we were owed some karma for what we did during HCBM’s pregnancy. I was diagnosed with ADHD at age five and have had a prescription for stimulants since a very young age.
One morning I awoke and heard what sounded like tiny wretching from the other room. My medication had spilled out in the bottom of my purse as the safety cap was screwed on crooked. SD was playing on the floor and digging around in my purse. DH noticed her putting something in her mouth, realized it was my medication and immediately ran into the bathroom and began making her puke.
I called poison control who instructed us to bring her to the hospital. She seemed relatively normal, a bit dazed maybe. We called the ER to let them know we’d be arriving. We got there and they stuck charcoal down her throat, drew blood, the whole ordeal.
I brought my medication bottle with me to give to the nurses so they knew what she had ingested and to prove it was a legally obtained prescription. I was frantic and bawling, a nurse comforted me and told me that ingestions are extremely common and we had done the right thing by bringing her in.
SD had an elevated heart rate, was fussy and stressed. She was administered medication to help lower her heart rate and as a result had to be admitted to be monitored. The blood tests came back with extremely minimal amounts of my meds in her system, but it was protocol that she be monitored after the medication was given to regulate her heart. If you’re feeling anxious, I’ll add that SD is perfectly healthy and happy, she fully recovered and did not suffer any seizures or damage to her brain/liver etc. which were the primary concerns with this ingestion.
Since she was being admitted, HD had to inform HCBM. I had told him he should tell her immediately, but he did not want to deal with her reaction or her family arriving. I think this was a poor decision on his part. As flawed a person as she is, I do know that HCBM loves SD very much, and I can sympathize with her wanting to be informed if her daughter was being seen at the hospital.
HCBM and her family arrived, I had left to avoid the fallout and gather some things for DH to drop off while he stayed at the hospital with SD. Naturally, HCBM was in a blind rage that she had not been contacted immediately. She demanded that the CPS worker who was mandated to check in because of the ingestion file a report of negligence. The CPS worker declined, saying that there was no negligence to report. That evening, security was called to remove HCBM from the hospital because she was screaming at DH in the pediatric wing. She was told she could return on her custody day.
I went to visit DH and SD the next day, she was back to her old self and able to go home. We were nowhere near prepared for what was about to ensue.
HCBM had weaved a story that I was addicted to drugs, and that whatever I was doing had to have been in a plastic bag in my purse or how else would SD have gotten into it? HCBM and her lawyer filed an ex parte motion. Now I’m sure most of you are familiar with the workings of family court, but for those of you who aren’t; and ex parte motion is an emergency motion. It is a piece of paper laid in front of a judge. The details can be as vague or exaggerated as the writer pleases them to be, and it is not until a hearing is scheduled can anything be disputed.
HCBM and her lawyer claimed that SD had ‘overdosed’ on stimulant drugs and conveniently failed to mention that they were a legal prescription. More than that, ‘overdose’ was a completely sensationalized description of what had occurred, and not a term used at all by any of the medical professionals nor was it included anywhere in her chart of the incident. SD never lost consciousness. There was never a point where doctors were in fear for her life. But the judge sees what is put before them and signs off with the limited information they are given.
When HD filed an ex parte motion against HCBM, the hearing was scheduled for nine days later. When HCBM filed an ex parte motion against DH, the hearing was scheduled over two months later.
This was the worst time period in DH’s life. He attempted suicide. He lost an insane amount of weight. He sold beloved possessions to pay his lawyer. He did not have custody of his daughter and HCBM allowed him rare visits in public places once or twice a week.
But ah, how the tables turn.
A month before the hearing on the ex parte motion, HCBM got a DUI with SD in the car. Her driving was so ballistic, someone had called in her car. She was arrested. I could go into detail about the bullshit-ery of her and her family I read in the police report from that, but there is still so much ground to cover.
CPS notified DH of the DUI. HCBM and her lawyer told DH’s lawyer they wanted to settle custody outside of court before the ex parte hearing.
DH was exhausted. He was broke. He just wanted his daughter back. He settled with HCBM on 50/50 custody. This is perhaps the greatest regret of his life. The GAL at the meeting even told DH he didn’t have to do this, that he could fight her and probably get more custody. But DH was a shell of a person at this point. He was in debt. He was exhausted.
Mere days after they settled he checked himself into an inpatient mental health facility for treatment. He and I were in touch every once in a while throughout that entire time, but had ended our romantic relations after the ex parte was filed. I was more of a confidant and friend, but he had drifted apart from everyone in his life and I was focused on school.
The day that DH left inpatient, PF messaged him to tell him that HCBM had slipped up and drank again. Saying, “she just has such a big heart, this is so difficult for her.” DH suspects that she had gotten herself into another nearly lethal situation or gone missing and PF was hoping to do damage control by contacting him rather than him finding out another way.
So 50/50 custody it was. Nine months later, HCBM gave birth to her and PF’s son. I’m not sure of any exact dates but judging by the date of that message and the birth of the baby there is a high change HCBM was drinking while unknowingly pregnant.
For the DUI, HCBM was sentenced to 40 days in jail while pregnant with her son. It was a work release program. Since she worked for her mom, she worked as many hours as she possibly could. Her mom would pick her up from prison with her phone and her makeup so she could hide what was going on from her coworkers and the community. DH would bring SD to the gymnastics center to visit her. She had an IED put into her car when she was released, meaning she had to blow into a breathalyzer to get her car to start.
DH and I would check in every once in a while over the course of the next year. We both dated other people. HCBM of course had issues with DH’s girlfriend he was with for a few months. But things had relatively settled save for the tension and resentment between HCBM and DH.
More than a year had passed since everything transpired and since DH and I were last romantically involved. We began talking more frequently during COVID lockdown and DH admitted he was hopelessly in love with me and wanted to be together. We had a major problem though.
When HCBM and DH were settling on their custody agreement, HCBM insisted I was not to be around SD. If you recall, HD was broke, exhausted, and severely struggling with his mental health. He and I hadn’t seen each other in person in several months, we talked but very infrequently and never of rekindling our relationship in any capacity. So he gave in. As long as he could be done with the nightmare and have his daughter back.
A single sentence in a five-page custody agreement meant that I couldn’t be around SD. I want to specify, this was not a restraining order. I was never served any papers, I would not be punished in any capacity were I to see SD, there was no court record of any kind indicating that I was restricted from seeing a child or was a dangerous individual. DH wouldn’t even lose custody or face any legal ramifications were he to violate that single sentence, it would just mean an official would have to intervene to investigate and ensure the stipulation be adhered to. Still, it would’ve prevented us from having any sort of real relationship. So we filed a motion to have the line removed. I had not seen SD in well over a year and we abided by the order which was exceedingly painful.
The first hearing was before a court commissioner. We came armed with letters of recommendation from friends and family, from the families I had nannied for during college. DH’s family had finally seen the light and turned against HCBM and attended the court hearing, filing the seats.
The court commissioner spent about ten minutes reviewing our plea, and decided this was not a matter of my character or whether I was a threat to SD, but that this was a communication issue between DH and HCBM, and since DH had agreed to this, they needed to work it out between the two of them.
Ha. Like that would ever happen. DH and HCBM began communicating through a court monitored app and attending co parenting counseling while our lawyer filed a motion to bring the issue before a judge and have a GAL and Family Court Worker appointed. As we all know with family court, things move slowly and this we had to wait months to make progress on our case.
Co parenting counseling was fruitless. HCBM is not capable of accountability. She insisted DH was a narcissist because she’d read about narcissism on the internet and she believed she deserved full custody of SD.
A judge appointed a GAL and Family Court Worker to our case. I’ll never forget the relief that day as the judge told HCBM that me being in SD’s life was inevitable at this point. There was no evidence that I was a dangerous person. At one point, our lawyer brought up the language used in HCBM’s ex parte motion all that time ago, pointing out the sensational language used, specifically the term “overdose”. I was shaking when HCBM’s lawyer admitted to the judge that “there was no overdose.” I’ll never forget the sheepish look on that lawyer’s face, or how HCBM’s jaw tightened as she refused to look even a millimeter in my direction.
Everyone met with the GAL and Family Court Worker. Of course HCBM got the earliest appointment possible so she could try to sell her story. When I sat down with the GAL he said “I don’t know why you’re here, to be honest.” But that’s the ridiculous thing about family court, people can just spew this insane shit and it has to be looked into.
Both the GAL and Family Court Worker recommended the line be removed entirely. We still had to wait another month for our hearing for these recommendations to be made to the judge. Over the course of these proceedings, DH and his lawyer (with my consent) had been urging HCBM to attend a co parenting counseling session with me to address her concerns. HCBM of course vehemently refused, actually speaking to me would destroy the picture she had painted and deluded herself into believing about me.
We continued to press the issue though. After the GAL and Family Court Worker’s recommendations were passed on to everyone’s lawyers, it was clear this was not going to go in HCBM’s favor. It could’ve easily been settled outside of court, saved everyone time and money. But that was never going to happen, HCBM was going to go down swinging. Less than two weeks from our final hearing before the judge, HCBM agreed to attend co parenting counseling with me. Both parties signed NDA’s before going into these sessions, they were meant to be mediation for parents to work out their issues and not dig up fodder to toss around in court. A safe place, if you will. DH and I suspected she’d want to attend a session with me so she could fabricate some story about me being awful, or make it seem like she was being reasonable since she’d refused any and all attempts to mediate this issue civilly.
We were correct, but her feeble attempts at control were fruitless and the line was removed. I could see my girl again. Since then, DH and I got married and have been in absolute bliss as a family of three. But of course, the mess with HCBM does not stop there.
DH and I have no idea it HCBM has been drinking or not. We have no proof. She claims she got sober, but she never received any professional help or rehab so that seems doubtful to me. There are a few red flags. She now shares a car with her mother, claiming her car has “been in the shop” for well over a year now. DH explained that when she would go on drinking binges, her parents would take her car away so they could control where she went and monitor her.
We’ve also had the issue of SD not wanting to go to her mom’s house. I have ring video footage of HCBM coming to pick up SD. SD was in hysterics, she ran back in our house several times while HCBM stands annoyed in the driveway. DH sits with her and consoles her, encouraging her and telling her she will have so much fun with her mom and brother. On this particular occasion, it took 45 minutes to get SD to go with her mom. This happened numerous times. DH eventually brought this up to HCBM, expressing his concerns and saying that he wished she would participate in co-parenting their daughter in these situations rather than hiding behind her car. HCBM dismissed him, saying she was a great parent and he was obviously making SD act this way. Give SD an oscar at this point. I can’t even fathom what DH would say to make a five year old act that way.
Eventually, HCBM stopped picking SD up and instead sent her mom to get her. SD has no issue going with her grandmother. A bit suspicious to me that it was specifically her mom that caused such an upset for her.
HCBM is very obsessed with image. She dresses SD in expensive outfits with intricate hairstyles. I should add, expensive outfits that are purchased for her by HCBM’s mother. She has told DH that she is not pleased with how he sends SD to school and has concerns about his ability to parent. He sends her… a 5 year old… to school in leggings and t-shirts like the rest of the 5 year olds in her class. Don’t get me wrong, I love to dress SD up when she’ll let me and I have indulged in Rylee and Cru outfits and what not, but the majority of the time SD wears normal kid clothes. She runs and jumps and plays and likes pink and sparkles and tops with her favorite characters on them. We let her pick her crazy mismatched outfits and throw her hair up in a quick bun or braid so it is out of her face. She bathes almost excessively because she loves the bath and is a very well looked after child.
Now, HCBM lost a significant amount of weight after she got together with PF. Her mother is also extremely thin. DH has told me about how they were always doing fad diets, they’d call themselves fat and critique their appearances constantly and clearly did not have a healthy relationship to their bodies or food.
At our home, SD is fed a balanced diet but I try to encourage a positive relationship to her body and food. No food is “good” or “bad,” they simply serve different purposes. For example, carbs give us energy, protein helps us grow, sugar makes us happy, etc. Creating guilt around eating certain types of food can lead to eating disorders, body image issues, I know because I had a poor relationship to food and my body for so long. SD loves fruits and veggies. She also loves chips and candy. She is allowed to indulge in sugar within reason and without guilt. I don’t think it's rocket science, and for us it has had fantastic results. We'll be at a gas station and ask SD if she wants a snack and the kid will want celery. I follow the instagram page “kids eat in color” very closely and when we prepare SD’s meals, the “treat” component is served together with the rest and not withheld until later. This is so SD doesn’t view certain foods as special or more desirable than others, and won’t associate treat foods with this rush of excitement and overwhelming positivity moreso than say chicken nuggets or carrots. When DH sets down her plate to eat, SD rarely if ever reaches for her treat food first. She eats everything on her plate until her body tells her she’s full.
HCBM constantly berates DH about SD eating “healthy.” She criticizes him for getting candy at the movies. Goes off about her having a cup of sugar-free pudding at 11 a.m. On Halloween, SD is allowed two pieces of candy from her trick or treat pile at her mom’s house.
Last Halloween at our house, we dumped all of our candy out in a huge pile and watched a movie. SD ate, I kid you not, four pieces of candy. She didn’t feel the need to binge on all this candy because she knew it wouldn’t be withheld if she asked for more in our home. There is still halloween candy in a bucket in our pantry and we weren’t even out trick or treating for an hour.
HCBM accuses us of “competing” with her. This. Is. Rich. SD loves visiting my parent’s and sometime last fall took a liking to playing my dad’s drumset. Later that week, HCBM bought her a kid-sized drumset. We adopted a kitten, HCBM adopted a kitten. We started playing barbies as a family, HCBM buys a barbie dreamhouse. We planned a weekend trip to a big city a few hours away, HCBM and PF take SD and their son to that city the week before we’re supposed to go. My husband is a Dungeons and Dragons fanatic, and recently he has been making kid friendly campaigns for the three of us to play as a family. SD loves playing dungeons and dragons with her daddy. It has become our family’s thing. The dungeons and dragons movie came out recently and DH and I got tickets for an early screening on a day we didn’t have SD. Who do you think we saw there while we were waiting in line to get popcorn? Their family does not play dungeons and dragons. You’ll be pleased to know that SD came down to sit with us for the last half hour of the movie, PF who had taken her had to give in because they were seated a row behind us and she kept leaning forward to excitedly whisper to DH about the movie.
I have suffered extreme emotional issues due to the abuse from HCBM. I’ve attended therapy specifically to address it. I developed severe social anxiety because HCBM will tell anyone who listens these fictions about me and DH. We live in a small community, one that HCBM and her family have been a part of for a long time and I am constantly afraid people I meet will know them and have these crazy ideas about who I am as a person. The flipside of this is that their family’s reputation is not as positive as they like to think it is, particularly to police in the area. In addition to HCBM’s drunk escapades involving police, her father has a court record pages long for tax fraud.
Thankfully, I work in the city 30 minutes from where we live and that has allowed me to build my own village and have a life untainted by HCBM and her crap. Through lots of work I have been able to establish firm boundaries. I’ve had to restrict HCBM and her friends from my social media accounts after being watched obsessively. HCBM’s mother even went as far as messaging my mother on Facebook to try and say DH is a narcissist and she should be concerned for me. DH and my mom are very close, and my mom was mainly worried about how far these people were going to go to untether my life.
HCBM doesn’t seem to understand the concept of equal guardianship. She views herself as the primary parent and believes she should have access to everything in our lives. This is legally not the case so luckily we’re just able to ignore those demands but it gets taxing.
HCBM’s parents pay for SD’s health insurance so HCBM makes all of her doctor and dentist appointments and acts as though that’s because DH is an uninvolved parent, despite the fact that he has asked to make appointments on his custody days so he could go. I have excellent benefits at my job and could take SD on as a dependent since she resides with us 50% of the time. We haven’t even proposed this idea to HCBM because god knows she would never agree despite the fact that this would probably save her parents a ton of money.
HCBM has SD involved in several activities on her custody days. A bit too many for a five year old in my opinion. Multiple gymnastics and dance classes and soccer. Since HCBM’s parents are always funneling her money and paying her bills they are constantly going out to do expensive activities, weekend trips, shows, you name it. HCBM thinks these things make her a good parent, but I personally don’t think that SD feels as emotionally attached to HCBM as she does DH. DH and I spend a ton of one on one time with SD. We play with her with her toys, we do crafts, we watch movies together. HCBM thinks dropping her off at some expensive activity makes her this stellar mom, but she doesn’t engage in the same level of connection with SD that DH does. HCBM’s parents of course bought them a trip to Disney World last year, and the day they came to pick up SD to leave for the airport she did not want to go. She began crying and insisting she wanted her dad to take her, and that she would miss him too much. What five year old objects to effing Disney World??
We have issues on the horizon with SD attending kindergarten next year. I know a battle will ensue about where she attends. The custody schedule does not give us any weekend time because when it was written, SD was one and DH was working weekends and the days they agreed on coincided with his schedule. This means that when SD attends school in the fall five days a week, we will not get a full day together as a family. DH and I are very nervous about addressing this. We don’t have any desire to change the 50/50 custody, just to adjust the days so that we can have some weekend time with SD. It is likely this issue will end up in court and cost us thousands.
I have had to come to the hard acceptance that this is just how our relationship with HCBM will be, likely forever. I hold on to selfish hope that she may screw up drinking again, but at the end of the day I want what is best for SD which is a healthy and stable mother and I will do whatever I can to encourage a positive relationship for them. At this point we have no proof of her drinking for the past few years. Either she miraculously stopped or her family’s response is just so calculated to protect her from getting into any shit and jeopardizing her custody. If that is the case, that can only go on for so long before SD is old enough to tell us what is happening.
I think that HCBM is deeply insecure and ashamed. I think she needs to make DH and I the villains so she feels better about herself. I think her upbringing has allowed her to shirk any and all accountability, she is surrounded by people who tell her she’s never wrong and she’s this great person and great parent.
I don’t know what the resolution is here. If you have read this far, thank you sincerely. Though I confide in my mom and friends about the situation with HCBM, I keep my venting to a minimum so as not to let her live rent free in my life. I am not going to spend all this energy being pissed at her and her immaturity. I’m not going to give her the satisfaction of getting on my nerves, being the subject of my conversations. I’m not even going to let her think I care enough to trash her to people. But it feels extremely therapeutic to get this all out to a group of people who understand.

Hi!!! We’re looking @ tix trying to figure out where the best seats in the house are. It’s Arlington. Budget is NOT an issue. We decided we are spending whatever and going for the absolute best experience.
Here are what we narrowed down to and thoughts about each:
Floor seats: - closest is awesome! - cool insta pics But… - looking up the whole time? - people and tall hats in front of us? - can’t really see the whole show, like the bigger picture because it’s so close? - less comfy fold out chairs - walk a long way for drinks and potty
Suite tickets: - most comfy - private waitress, bathrooms and VIP entrance - unlimited snacks and sodas - cool insta pics But… - furthest away? - just end up looking at a screen the whole time?
Side stadium seating (section 135) - closer than suite, further than floor - looking down - Abel to see the bigger picture without being too far away? But… - don’t get the best of either world?
Has anyone ever been to a concert like this who can provide some insight? About to spend like $5k on tickets so want don’t want to mess up!!
Thanks for your help!!

section 317 row 4. 250$ each

I have two, 2-day tickets for the SoFi Stadium shows on Friday, August 25th & Sunday, August 27th for sale. Great seats located in Section 235, Row 5. Selling for face value & can provide all receipts/proof of purchase. Will only accept payment via PayPal Goods & Services. $740 total gets you both tickets.

When I was six years old, I followed a red bird into the woods. I didn’t think much about it, it just made a funny sound and I wanted to look at it. So I wandered off. My mother had fallen asleep on her sunbed after toting about in the garden, she was usually very attentive. Once the bird flew away I tried to turn back, only to realize I’d wandered off the trail, and I had no idea where I was. It was the first time I truly feared for my life. The forests of West Virginia can be so dense that they eat your screams; no one could hear me calling for help, and I couldn’t hear my panicked mother looking for me.
I ended up moving further and further into the forest. I went the wrong way. The sky slowly turned dark as the hours passed, and I found myself following a river. I was thirsty. It eventually got so dark that I couldn’t see my own feet.
At some point, I put my foot down wrong and twisted my ankle. It just broke me. I couldn’t straighten my leg out or put any weight on it. I just sat there by the river, completely devastated. I cried my eyes out, screaming for help, but no one came. It was just me, and the dark. And the dark was ready to eat me alive.
​
In the darkest hours of the night, as the fear had reached into the back of my heart, I just sat there; shivering. It was as if the panic had subsided into a sort of revelation. I imagined Death waiting for me at the other side of the river. I knew it was there.
I never saw it, but I painted a picture of it in my mind. I figured it had a really long arm, with a single painted nail. If I looked at it, or talked to it, that arm would grow longer.
But it wanted me to look. It wanted me to know it was there.
“Look-a-me,” it whispered. “Look-a-me, little boy.”
​
Sometime during the night, I passed out. They found me by the river just before sunrise.
And although my leg healed, my mind didn’t. And from that day forward, I’ve always had the sense that something lurks in the dark, just out of sight. Something that wants me to look. To find it.
To reach me.
​
Ever since, I’ve had an anxious relationship to the dark. Some would call it nyctophobia. A sort of fear of the unseen. I’ve always held that gnawing feeling of something waiting on the other side of the river, just out of reach; but one misstep, and it would get me. Even as an adult, I still get that sense of dread. An all-encompassing panic. The sense that you’re not getting enough oxygen, despite hyperventilating. Blood rushing to your head so fast it starts ringing in your ears. And then and there, in my most vulnerable moments, I can still hear it.
“Look-a-me, little boy. Look-a-me.”
​
Over the years, I’ve been to various therapists. I’ve had treatments. And honestly, just being open about my fears has helped tremendously. I’ve faced my fears time and time again and channeled them into creative outlets. That’s how I eventually became a screenwriter.
I worked my fingers to the bone. Sometimes out of ambition, but most often just to distract myself from that all-consuming darkness that sneaks up on me late at night. I moved to the West Coast in 2011. An internship lead me to a position as an uncredited assistant screenwriter on a popular sitcom. I can’t name any names, but I’m sure there were quite a few nerds enjoying our fourth season.
I got my first job at a movie set in 2016. I mostly worked on last-minute edits and consultation, but it was the first time I saw my name on the silver screen. I’m sure some of you horror fans out there enjoyed it. And to those of you who’ve gained a lifelong fear of dolls; I’m sorry.
​
I worked several stray projects until 2018, when I met a very influential man. Let’s call him Patrick, or ‘Pat’ for short. Pat and I met at the wrap-up party of another project, and we got a bit too drunk. We started talking about horror movies, and the two of us ended up talking about our fears and anxieties. It was a “drinking red wine from the bottle at 3-am” kind of talk.
I ended up mentioning my trauma. It sort of just slipped out. I mentioned my sprained leg, and sitting there at the bank of the river. I mentioned a presence in the dark. The long arm, growing longer the more I tried to see it.
“Wha… what’s it called?” Pat asked, flabbergasted.
And in that moment, I realized I’d just pitched my first screenplay.
​
Pat fast-tracked the whole thing. He was aching for a producer’s credit, and he genuinely loved the imagery of the ‘Look-a-Me’. A creature lurking in the dark with an arm growing taller the more you paid attention to it. He thought it was absolutely chilling, and he kept hyping me up about it several times a week.
I had a rough draft ready in two weeks. I tried to channel my childhood fears into a cohesive story, but instead of a kid stuck by the river it was more of a classic horror setup. A group of young adults who got lost in the forests of West Virginia, being relentlessly hunted by this primal force. That first draft was rough, but I got a good outline.
I worked with two other writers for the second draft. Kellan, who mostly worked crime drama, and Morgan. She was a comedy writer who wanted to break into a new genre. There was a lot of late night rewrites. Morgan was also an amazing concept artist, which brought every piece of our story to life.
​
I remember one night as we worked on the second draft. Kellan was rambling on and on about what the ‘Look-a-me’ represented.
“It’s too simple,” he sighed. “It can’t just be death. We’re not making a… a Jason Voorhees. It’s something new. It means something.”
“I think it’s trauma,” said Morgan. “Like, how it gets worse the more you poke at it. The more you look at it. It’s painful.”
“What the hell kind of message is that?” Kellan scoffed. “Are we telling people not to confront their fears?”
“No, we’re… we’re telling them to not get… goaded into it. To do it on your own terms, you know?”
​
It felt like a good and bad conscience chattering into my ears. But at the end of the day, it was my script, and it came down to my decision. Kellan wanted to paint the picture of a threat, something symbolic. Morgan wanted to send a message, using the Look-a-me as a tool. Neither of them was getting the point.
“There’s nothing to it,” I finally said. “It is not a message. It is not a symbol. It’s there, and it hunts. Just like a bear, or a shark.”
“So we’re just making a monster movie,” scoffed Kellan. “Jaws 4, deep forest boogaloo?”
“There was a Jaws 4, actually,” smiled Morgan. “It was called The Revenge.”
“Oh please.”
They argued back and forth. They argued about how bad the script could get if we continued down this path. They argued about the clichés we were wandering headfirst into. And it dawned on me; they were just scared of the dark. They didn’t have control. I did.
“I got it from here,” I said. “Take the night off.”
So they did. They were still arguing in the hallway, on their way out. Moments later, Kellan turned back. He leaned in and gave me a final look.
“You know you have to show it, right?” he said. “No matter what, we can’t just have it hidden in the dark. We have to show it.”
​
That’s where my writing stopped. No matter how I twisted and turned it, I couldn’t picture the Look-a-me. All I saw was this long arm reaching towards me, coming out of the dark. A woman’s hand, with a single painted nail.
“Look-a-me, little boy.”
But the more I thought about it, the more my anxiety spiked. I knew I could see it in my mind, if I wanted to. I could. But looking at it too closely, in any way, would give it the power to reach me. My mind wouldn’t let me see it. My reptile brain was reaching through my anxiety to rattle me into looking the other way. To turn my mind away from the page.
I couldn’t describe it. All I got was that… that long arm.
And I could’ve sworn I felt it brushing against the back of my neck.
​
The second draft stalled for a couple of weeks. Pat was getting impatient. He called me into the office one rainy Wednesday afternoon to have a “serious conversation” about the rewrite.
When I got there, I was ambushed by a whole gaggle of writers. An entire team. A room full of people, who’d all been briefed. They all had printed-out copies of the first draft, and both Morgan and Kellan had told them about the issue with the rewrite. Pat wasn’t playing around; he wanted this done.
I barely got a word out before we were ushered into our seats and pushed into finishing the draft. There were about a dozen of us. Some were pretty big industry names, called in to give some pedigree to the script. One of them had worked on prosthetics for a big zombie show, and he came out swinging.
“Let’s just expand on what we got,” he suggested. “Instead of a long arm, why not several? Just… all arms.”
“Yeah,” someone chimed in. “Like it, a… saves them. The arms, I mean.”
“It adds to itself,” someone laughed. “A literal growing fear.”
“Ringu meets The Blob. Love it. Love. IT.”
​
They were all talking over me. Through me. Past me. They didn’t know any better, and as a collective, they all looked at the Look-a-me. Not literally, of course, but figuratively. They were bringing it into focus. And even there, in the bright lights of that film studio meeting room, I could feel that darkness coming over me. My breath growing shallow. My vision turning into a pin. And in the back of my mind, I heard it.
“Look-a-me, little boy.”
I ran out of the office, locked myself in the bathroom, and puked my guts out. I screamed into the toilet bowl, waiting for the panic to stop. I could feel that long arm reaching for me. And the more I thought about it, the closer it got.
“Look-a-me,” it hissed, its voice echoing off the bathroom tiles. “Look-a-me!”
​
I didn’t return to that meeting. I got in my car and went straight home to take my backup anxiety meds. I hadn’t used them in a while. I fell face-first into the bed and just collapsed into a nightmarish mid-afternoon nap.
Later that day I poured myself a bath and a glass of red wine (non-alcoholic); even brought out some bubbles. I figured I’d stay in for the rest of the day and get takeout.
Just a few minutes into the bath, my phone started buzzing. Turns out Pat had run out of patience. They’d finished the second draft, and they were going ahead with it; with or without me. I was invited to add to it, but they weren’t gonna budge on what the ‘consultants’ had come up with.
I skimmed it. And there it was.
​
They had been poking at the Look-a-me for hours. There was concept art, vivid descriptions, and even a storyboard sketch.
The Look-a-me. A hundred arms from a hundred victims. An eldritch Medusa. Ringu meets The Blob. They had comparisons, charts, mood boards… one of them already had a casting suggestion for the voiceover.
​
Then the power went out.
With a snap from the ceiling light, I was enveloped in complete darkness. In a heartbeat I went from a screenwriter back to a little boy; lost and alone in the dark. I imagined myself submerged in that forest river. I scrambled to get out. I kept slipping, as I felt the bathtub give way for river stones. I could feel them. I could smell the algae.
“Look-a-me, little boy,” the darkness hissed. “They gave me a body. They look, little boy.”
A long nail brushed against my neck.
“You made them look-a-me. And now I can reach much, much further.”
​
A warmth against my cheek, as something leaned in. Sticky lips parting, like slowly pulling off a band-aid. It was right there, in the dark.
“Thank you.”
​
As the lights came back on, I felt my heart skip a beat. Every square inch, every bathroom tile, every towel and shampoo bottle; it was all covered in handprints.
And for the first time since I was six years old, I screamed like my life depended on it.
Like a part of me was still stuck in those woods, hoping for my mother to find me.
​
Over the next few days, my fear of the dark kicked into overdrive. Every time I stepped out of the light, I heard it. Little remarks, snickers, and laughter. Just closing my eyes was all it took for the sound of tapping fingers to creep closer.
I couldn’t help but to imagine it. It was no longer just an arm in the dark, it was this… this amalgamation. It poured out of every dark corner of every room. It had so many more things to say, and its arms were so much longer.
And no matter how many lights were on, and no matter how much light I let in from the windows, I could still sense it. Out of every unseen corner, out of every closed door; it was there.
And it wanted me to look.
​
I was getting regular updates. They were on a third draft. Kellan and Morgan had completely taken over the writing, and I was turning more and more into a “consultant”. The project was running away from me. More concept art. More lines. More dialogue.
They were looking at it. I had pointed it out to them, and now they were all looking.
I was in a feverish panic. I could feel it growing stronger, bigger, more assertive. It was no longer just something lurking in the back of my mind, it was reaching across the river. And at every turn, at every corner, there it was.
“Look-a-me, little boy.”
​
I’ll be honest, some of those days are a blur. I remember a rainy evening in the middle of the week. I was sleep-deprived, exhausted, and mentally torn.
I don’t even remember going to see Morgan. I just had this drive to stop her from looking too closely. I had to stop her from whatever was going to happen if she looked for too long.
I had to save her.
​
The moment I put my hand to her door, it opened. Morgan looked at me with sleepless eyes, her hands shaking. For a moment, the two of us just looked at one another.
“I, uh… I thought you were sick,” she said. “They said you were.”
“You don’t… don’t look too great yourself,” I said, forcing a chuckle.
Every light in her apartment was on. Even her TV, a flashlight, and her laptop. Her curtains had been torn down and spread across the floor. It might’ve been evening outside, but her place was bright as day. I could put two and two together, but it felt strange saying it out loud.
“You’ve… you’ve seen it. You’ve looked, I mean.”
Morgan nodded, her head shaking up and down like a bobblehead. Poor thing was exhausted.
“It’s real,” she stammered. “How… how can it be real?”
​
She invited me in. I sat down on her sofa, on top of a flowery curtain. Morgan’s hands were shaking so bad I could hear the spoon in her cup of tea rattle back and forth.
“It, uh… started a few days ago,” she said. “And it just… it never stops. The more I try not to think about it, the more real it gets.”
“It wants you to look,” I said. “It wants-“
“It wants to become this… this real thing. It wants us to create it. It has lived in the back of your head for years, and now it’s clawing its way out.”
“That’s… yeah. Something like that.”
“So how do we stop it?” she asked. “What, do we… do we kill you?”
She sat down next to me, holding her cup tight with both her hands.
“I don’t, uh… I don’t think so. It’s already out there.”
“But we can’t un-look at it. It’s done. It’s… it’s happening.”
​
And the thought hit me.
What the hell would happen once an audience of thousands, or tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, watched it? How long would it grow, just from test screening? How far across the river could the Look-a-me get, if everyone was eager to watch it?
A cold chill went up my spine. Maybe this was the plan. Maybe this was what it wanted. Maybe it pushed me towards writing to begin with. Maybe it lived in me, putting me on a path to birth it onto the world stage.
I felt sick.
​
“I… I can’t let this happen,” I said. “If that… if it… if we shoot anything. A promo, a… a trailer. Anything. If we do the goddamn casting, or there’s a leak, or… or…”
“Oh my God.”
Morgan covered her mouth, her eyes going wild.
“D-do you think-“
I just nodded. We were thinking the same thing. This… this mind-creature, if brought to the public, would be unstoppable.
​
We got our coats and got out of the apartment. We had to see Pat. Maybe he was experiencing something similar. Morgan fumbled for her keys and almost stumbled over her own feet. I could hear her swearing with frustration.
The moment we got out of her apartment, it was as if time stood still. Morgan was right behind me, but something happened. There was this strange ammonia smell in the air. I slowly turned around, holding my breath.
I hadn’t thought about it, but the hallway light outside her apartment was broken. And for a moment, we were standing in darkness.
​
One by one, the lights in her apartment went out. Twinkling on and off, like dying stars.
A pair of pale fingers dug through her hair; a single painted fingernail poked out behind her ear.
So many fingers.
​
Morgan gasped. We looked at one another, breathlessly.
It could reach all the way across.
It could reach across the river.
​
In a heartbeat, the door slammed shut. There was a visceral tearing, and the sound of something rolling across the floor. And outside, the lights were starting to die.
“Look-a-me, little boy,” the dark said. “Look-a-me.”
Long pale arms crawled out of every corner, reaching for me. It wasn’t even dark yet. It didn’t care.
It laughed.
​
I refused to get trapped in the elevator, so I ran down the stairs , feeling the sole of my boots trample curious fingers with every corner I rounded. I could feel them nipping at my clothes, grasping for my neck.
I burst through the exit to the street level, knocking over a middle-aged couple as I scrambled towards my car. I didn’t even hear their insults. All I heard was my heartbeat, and that little voice growing louder every time I left the safety of the streetlights.
​
I drove past red lights, broke every speed limit, and went down the wrong end of a one-way street. I was in a frenzy and ended up frantically knocking on Pat’s front door.
I tried to compose myself, but there was no use. My eyes were wild, and I couldn’t stop my legs from shaking. My lips quivered, like I was hypothermic.
Pat was having a small party, just like the one I’d first met him at. He was about to invite me in, but he stopped himself. Clearly, I wasn’t well.
“We gotta… we gotta stop this, Pat,” I said. “We gotta stop production.”
“What are you talking about?” he smiled. “There’s no reason to-“
“No, you’re not hearing me. This… this is not a-a… a debate.”
“I’m sorry, but I’m not going to let you talk to me like-“
​
I heard it. That snickering, pleading little voice. Asking me to turn around, to look into the dark of the night.
“Look. Look-a-me.”
​
I snapped.
I shoved the door open and forced my way inside. I picked up a small wine glass from a nearby table, stomped into the living room, and tapped it with my phone for attention.
It could be a thousand times worse. Ten thousand. A hundred thousand.
No.
​
I barely even noticed the glass breaking, and everyone staring. At least three dozen industry professionals. People I’d looked up to my entire professional career. Hell, one of them was an A-lister.
“We’re, uh… hi,” I stammered. “We’re cancelling all production of the, uh… The Look-a-Me.”
There was a murmur in the crowd. Little smirks and pitying smiles.
“It’s happening,” I said. “It’s done. It’s gone.”
“You don’t know what you’re talking about,” groaned Pat. “I’m calling the police.”
“Do whatever you want, but if I see a single goddamn still from that production, I’m burning the goddamn studio to the ground.”
“You gotta be-“
I grabbed Pat by the collar and pushed him up against the wall, rattling his wine glasses.
“I’m burning. The goddamn studio. To the ground.”
​
Career suicide.
Complete, absolute, career suicide.
​
I collapsed back into my car, still holding the broken wine glass. I turned on the dome light to drown out the darkness, but it didn’t work. I flicked it a couple times, but nothing happened.
A pale hand pushed down on my door lock.
Click.
​
“Time to look-a-me, little boy,” a voice whispered from the back seat, as a cold hand stroked my cheek. “Time to look.”
I thought back on that night from so many years ago. That absolute terror. That certainty of death. And just like then, there was this moment where fear gave way to revelation.
Of course.
​
“You can’t kill me,” I said. “I’m the only one who’ve… who’ve really looked. I’m the only one giving you this reach.”
Cold fingers curled around my neck.
“That’s it, isn’t… isn’t it? It’s because of me. Otherwise you would’ve killed me. You would’ve stopped me from going in there.”
There was no response. Just a tightening grip. Long nails brushing my hair, grabbing at it.
“Without me, and without that show, there’s no one to look. All the drawings will be tossed. The script forgotten. It’ll just be you and me, and… and if I’m gone… there’s just you. And you’re nothing. You are, literally, nothing. You never were anything but… but nothing.”
And I turned around to look, at the look-a-me.
​
And all I saw was a pale white hand retreating into the dark.
​
​
Now, it’s… it’s been a while.
I’m no longer under a studio NDA, but I’m not taking any chances. No charges were pressed, no production came to pass. It was easier to just shut it down and move on.
You might’ve heard about Morgan. The details were graphic. And no, of course that’s not her real name. They said she had some kind of episode, and the results were… tragic. How you can do something like she did to her own head during an "episode" they conveniently left out. But I know.
I'll always know.
​
Some things out there defy our explanations. Our rationale. Some things aren’t a message, or a monster, or a theme. It just is. It exists because we make it exist. And it wants to be seen.
To me, I don’t know where the Look-a-me came from. Maybe it came from me. Maybe it is me. Or maybe it was just something that found me in the dark, and decided to stick around.
But now I know that as much as I will be stuck with it, for the rest of my life, at least that thing is equally stuck.
With me.

(from oca.org)
The Righteous Joseph the Fair was the son of the Old Testament Patriarch Jacob and his wife Rachel (Genesis 37:3). He had eleven brothers: Jacob's first wife Leah (the daughter of Laban) gave birth to six sons: 1) Reuben, 2) Simeon, 3) Levi, 4) Judah. Then Leah thought she could not have any more children. His second wife, Leah's sister Rachel, also seemed to be infertile, was jealous of Leah, so she gave her servant girl Bilhah to Jacob “so that she may give birth on my behalf” (Genesis 30:3). The concubine Bilhah bore two sons to Jacob: 5) Dan and 6) Naphtali.
In those days, when a wife could not bear children, it was not uncommon for a female servant to have the husband's child on behalf of the wife. The expression "she shall bear upon my knees and I shall have children by her" (Genesis 30:3) refers to the rite of adoption whereby the new-born child was placed on the lap of the adopting woman to indicate that she had legally borne the child. The fact that Rachel gives the name, rather than Bilhah, demonstrates that she is recognized as the child's mother. When Leah thought she could no longer give Jacob sons, she gave her servant, Zilpah to Jacob, who bore him 7) Gad and 8) Asher. These two, however, were legally Leah's sons when she adopted them, in the manner previously described.
After some time, Leah did conceive two more sons: 9) Issachar and 10) Zebulun, and a daughter: Dinah, who is first mentioned in Genesis 30:21 as the daughter of Leah and Jacob, born to Leah after she had borne six sons to Jacob. Finally, Rachel gave birth to 11) Joseph, and 12) Benjamin.
Joseph's brothers became jealous of him because their father loved him more than his other sons, since he was the son of his old age. They feared him because he revealed his dreams, which foretold his future greatness. One dream was that he and his brothers were binding sheaves in the field. Joseph's sheaf rose up, and the sheaves of his brothers arose and bowed down to it. In another dream the sun, the moon, and eleven stars bowed down to him. Jacob rebuked him for implying that his father, mother, and eleven brothers would also bow before him one day.
The brothers decided to kill Joseph, but the eldest son Reuben persuaded them not to do so. "Do not shed any blood. Cast him into this pit ... but do not lay hands upon him" (Genesis 37:32). Reuben intended to come back later and rescue Joseph, but his plans were thwarted. They stripped Joseph of his coat and threw him into the pit, and then sold him for twenty gold coins to merchants who were traveling to Egypt in a caravan. After killing a goat, they smeared its blood on the coat and brought it to Jacob saying that they had found it on the ground. Jacob recognized the coat and concluded that a wild animal must have killed Joseph.
In Egypt Joseph was sold to Potiphar, a captain of the guards. Because his master saw that the Lord was with Joseph, and that he was a successful man, he made him the overseer of his house, placing him in charge of all his possessions. The Righteous Joseph was fair of countenance, and Potiphar's wife wanted him to lie with her. He would not consent to this, but the shameless woman continued pestering him. One day she repeated her request, and he fled from her. She seized his garment as he ran away, and showed it to her husband when he returned home. Out of malice and spite, Potiphar's wife slandered the Righteous Joseph before her husband, saying that he had attempted to rape her. Believing the lie, Potiphar confined the innocent young man in a prison. There, Saint Joseph the Fair gained fame when he interpreted the dreams of two men in the prison (Genesis chapter 40).
After Joseph interpreted Pharaoh's two dreams (Genesis chapter 41), predicting seven years of plenty, and seven years of famine and misfortune for Egypt, he advised Pharaoh to appoint overseers to store one fifth of the grain harvest each year, and to reserve it for the time of famine. The Righteous Joseph was set free and was given charge of Pharaoh's household, and became the Lord of Egypt. Pharaoh was still the ruler, but Joseph answered only to him.
When famine also struck his home in the land of Canaan, ten of Joseph's brothers were sent to Egypt by Jacob in order to buy some grain. Only Benjamin stayed at home with his father. Joseph recognized them, but they did not know him. He threw them into prison for three days, then released them. He gave them provisions and sent them on their way, ordering them to send him their youngest brother.
Later, Joseph revealed himself to them, and he wept. He told them to bring his father and his entire family to Egypt. After Jacob's death, Joseph's brothers feared that he would repay them for all the evil they had done to him, so they asked for forgiveness. He replied, "You meant evil against me, but God meant it for good" (Genesis 50:20).
Before his death around 1700 B. C., the Righteous Joseph ordered that his bones be taken from Egypt to the Promised Land, which was done in the time of the holy Prophet Moses (September 4), 1496 B.C. As the father of Manassah and Ephraim, Saint Joseph is placed at the head of two of the tribes of Israel.
Saint Joseph is also commemorated on the Sunday of the Holy Fathers, and on Great and Holy Monday.
Kontakion — Tone 8
Jacob lamented the loss of Joseph, but the noble one was seated in a chariot and honored as a king; for when he refused to be enslaved by the desires of the Egyptian woman, he was glorified by Him who beholds the hearts of men, and bestows an incorruptible crown.

It's another big weekend of local fun in Blacksburg, at Virginia Tech and throughout the New River Valley with over 65 events. However will have to keep our fingers crossed the weather cooperates on Saturday for any of the outdoor events (some for tonight & tomorrow are already cancelled or postponed including this weekend's top 15 softball match-up).
The Hokie Women's Basketball will have most of the attention tonight and hopefully on Sunday afternoon, though I have included a few late Friday events for those that are interested.
Here's the Weekend Rundown: 1. Performance with Rissi Palmer Moss Arts Center at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg Friday, March 31, 2023, 8:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $15.00, Students with ID and Youth 18 and Under: $10.00 Rissi Palmer's 2017 twangy mid-tempo anthem, "Country Girl", made her the first Black woman to grace Billboard’s Hot Country charts in over 30 years. Rissi Palmer's gift lies in reaching across all musical boundaries. While Palmer made her mark in country music, she is equally at home in R&B music, bringing the entire spectrum of popular music to bear on music she calls "Southern soul". Raised in a musical family that loved both country and R&B, she was a part of a singing and dancing troupe sponsored by a local television station at age 16, and by the time she was 19 years old, she had already been offered her first publishing and label deal. A few highlights throughout Palmer’s musical career include performances at the White House, New York's Lincoln Center, and multiple appearances on the Grand Ole Opry stage. She has toured extensively across the country, sharing stages with Taylor Swift, The Eagles, Chris Young, Charley Crockett, and many more. She has also made numerous national appearances on Oprah and Friends, CMT Insider, CNN, CBS This Morning, Good Morning America to name a few. Palmer is also a special correspondent for CMT's Hot 20 Countdown, featuring chart-topping music videos, news stories, live performances, and candid interviews from country’s biggest stars. This performance is part of "Up 86," a trio of spring performances is the culmination of a new collaboration between the Moss Arts Center and North Carolina artist Shirlette Ammons, who is serving as the center’s first independent guest performing arts curator. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=679928
2. College Baseball: UVA vs. Virginia Tech English Field, Virginia Tech Friday, March 31, 2023, 8:00 PM, Saturday, April 1, 2023, 7:00 PM, Sunday, April 2, 2023, 1:00 PM Adults: $10.00 Youth Ages 6-18: $5.00 Youth Ages 5 & Under: Free Watch the Virginia Tech Baseball Team compete against ACC conference and in-state rival the University of Virginia in a three-game series. Gates and ticket booths at English Field will open 90 minutes before first pitch on gamedays. Fans accessing English Field on gameday are encouraged to use free parking in Lot 16 ("The Cage"), located northwest of the stadium along Duck Pond Drive. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685268
3. Phlegar Hill in Concert Bull & Bones Brewhaus & Grill, Blacksburg Friday, March 31, 2023, 9:00 - 11:45 PM Admission: Free The Phlegar Hill band plays a variety of music and crosses many genres and is based in Floyd, VA. NOTE: Due to Virginia Tech Women's Basketball playing in the Final Four on Friday at 7:00 PM, the concert will start after the game. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=686142
4. 2023 Annual Bob and Sue Duncan Memorial 5K Virginia Tech Cross Country Course, Blacksburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 9:00 AM - 1:00 PM Participants Ages 13 & Up: $25.00, Participants Ages 12 & Under: $10.00, College Students: $20.00, Canines: $5.00 The Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine (VMCVM) and the VMCVM Student Chapter of the American College Of Veterinary Pathologists present the 16th Annual Bob and Sue Duncan Memorial 5K to honor Bob Duncan, a beloved veterinary college professor who passed away in May of 2007 and his wife who passed away this past October. Both walkers and runners are welcome. Leashed dogs are welcome too with a proof of rabies vaccination and signed waiver required. Following the 5k, participants can enjoy raffles, music, freebies, lawn games and food trucks at the Veterinary Medicine Instruction Addition. The entire run will be on the Virginia Tech Cross Country Course. Water will be available at the finish and at the halfway marker. T-shirts are guaranteed for those who register by March 24th. For those who register after, shirts will be available on a first come, first serve basis. All profits from the race benefit the Bob Duncan Memorial Diagnostic Veterinary Pathology Scholarship which awards a fourth-year veterinary student for a commitment and zeal for diagnostic veterinary pathology. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685940
5. 2023 NRV Home Expo Christiansburg Recreation Center, Christiansburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM and Sunday, April 2, 2023, 12:00 - 5:00 PM Early Bird Tickets: $5.00, Day Of Tickets: $7.00, Children under 18: Free when accompanied by paying adult The New River Valley Home Builders Association has put all your home care needs into one convenient location. This is the place to be if you are looking to: Build a new home, Remodel your current home, Find your mortgage lender, Meet service providers to help you with your current project list and more. The floor will be full of local, trusted professionals who are available to answer your home care questions, provide you reliable resources and quick quotes, as well as show you samples of their skills and services. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=680019
6. 2023 Spring Craft Show Auburn High School, Riner Saturday, April 1, 2023, 9:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free The Riner Volunteer Fire Department Ladies Auxiliary presents their 5th Annual Spring Craft Show. Find unique gifts for that special someone or something for yourself. Vendors include wood working, crocheting, sewing, essential oils, jewelry, glass work, wreaths, food, direct sales and more. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=684665
7. Historic Smithield Opening Day 2023 Historic Smithfield, Blacksburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 10:00 AM - 3:00 PM Adults: $8.00, AAA, Military, Seniors (55+): $7.00, Virginia Tech Students: $5.00, Children (Over 12): $5.00 Kids (6-12): $3.00, Kids (5 & Under): Free Join Historic Smithfield to welcome the first day of their 2023 Visit Season. Tour the Manor House, site and outbuildings, engage with our knowledgeable interpreters. Onsite you can watch blacksmithing demos and living history presentations. Join them for a presentation at 11:00 AM from author Heather Cole and her book "At Home with the Virginia Presidents". The book is an engaging armchair travel talk about the eight Virginia-born presidents and the sites that shaped their lives. Attendees will learn a bit about the presidents’ lives, take a peek inside their homes and get ideas for their next history road trip. Heather Cole's book will be available for purchase in the Museum Store. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685719
8. 2023 Easter Egg Hunt for All Ages The Crafter's Corner, Christiansburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 10:00 AM - 4:00 PM Admission: Free The Crafter's Corner presents their 1st Annual Easter Egg Hunt. Eggs will be hidden all throughout the store for anyone to try to find. And, make time to meet the Yzma-Bunny and take a picture with her. This event is for all ages, but some eggs will be more difficult to find. The event will go on all day until eggs run out so this is first come, first serve event. Eggs will contain different things such as candy, small free items, discounts and there will be one Grand Prize Egg. No purchase necessary, however if you find a discount egg you might want to use it. Countryman Jamaican Grill food truck will be onsite for food sales from 10:00 AM - 1:00 PM so bring your appetite. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=686152
9. Yoga on Tap Long Way Brewing, Radford Saturday, April 1, 2023, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM Admission: $15.00 Join Big Body Yoga at Long Way Brewing for no-experience-necessary yoga classes every other Saturday on Long Way's outdoor patio. Expect an upbeat playlist, laid back atmosphere and all-levels yoga class followed by a fresh cold beer. A ticket to the event covers the yoga class and your beer after. Be sure to pre-register for each class you plan to attend. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=684784
10. College Softball: #13 Duke vs. #12 Virginia Tech Tech Softball Park, Virginia Tech Saturday, April 1, 2023, 12:00 PM, Sunday, April 2, 2023, 12:00 PM and 2:00 PM (Doubleheader) Admission: Free Watch the #12 Virginia Tech Softball team compete against ACC conference opponent #13 Duke in a top 15 match-up and three game series. No tickets are required for Hokie Softball games. Parking is available behind the outfield at Tech Softball Park and enter along the right field side of the stadium. Stands open one hour prior to the start of the game. UPDATE: Due to the inclement weather, the three game series schedule has been updated from the original schedule. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685862
11. JH Bards 2nd Anniversary Celebration J.H Bards Spirit Co., Radford Saturday, April 1, 2023, 12:00 - 8:00 PM Admission: Free Enjoy the release of their Spring Cocktail Menu from noon until 8:00 PM with the Bluegrass BBQ Food Truck serving from 1:00 PM until 7:00 PM. And, Jen Bertiaux will be hosting their first ever no covers Open Mike from 4:30 PM until 6:30 PM. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685906
12. 2023 Mercedes Cup: UVA vs Virginia Tech Polo Match Alphin-Stuart Arena, Virginia Tech Saturday, April 1, 2023, 12:00 - 5:00 PM Admission: $5.00 The Polo Club at Virginia Tech presents the Annual Mercedes Cup featuring a polo match with Virginia Tech hosting the University of Virginia. After a three year hiatus, the Mercedes Cup is back in-person. There will also be a wine tasting, food served by Block & Bridle, a silent auction (ending at 4:00 PM), vendors and fun halftime events. All are welcome. All profits goes towards care for the Club's horses and the equipment to play. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=686156
13. Free Drive-Thru Lunch with Grilled Cheese and Homemade Vegetable Soup Park United Methodist Church, Christiansburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 12:00 - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Enjoy a homemade lunch consisting of Vegetable Soup, Grilled Cheese Sandwich and Dessert which will be prepared and packaged for carry-out and delivered to you in your vehicle while supplies last. There is no charge, however donations will be graciously be accepted for local neighborhood missions. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=696157
14. Above The Fray and Triquetra in Concert Buffalo Mountain Brewery, Floyd Saturday, April 1, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM (Above The Fray) and 6:00 - 9:00 PM (Triquetra) Admission: Free Enjoy two concerts on Saturday. Above The Fray is a Virginia band that performs blues, old rock and Americana. Triquetra Band is a new take on a classic jazz ensemble featuring multi-passionate, multi-instrumentalists with a strong penchant for music that moves the listener both gracefully and intelligently. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685836
15. Mike Gangloff, Solar Hex, Gina & Jason Dilg in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Fiddlers Mike Gangloff and Gina Dilg, cellist Kaily Schenker (Solar Hex) and Banjoist Jason Dilg present an evening of music traditional and less so. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=684806
16. Wayne Henderson & Friends in Concert Floyd Country Store, Floyd Saturday, April 1, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $25.00, Reserved Seating: $30.00 Wayne Henderson is a musical legend known worldwide for both his lightening fast "pinch picking" guitar style and the beautiful guitars, mandolins, and banjos he crafts in his shop in Rugby, Virginia. His guitar playing has also been enjoyed at Carnegie Hall, in three national tours of Masters of the Steel-String Guitar, and in seven nations in Asia. In addition to his reputation as a guitarist, Henderson is a luthier of great renown. He is a recipient of a 1995 National Heritage Award presented by the National Endowment for the Arts. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685929
17. Lucy the Spy and Tripolar Express in Concert XYZ Art Gallery, Blacksburg Saturday, April 1, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM Admission: $5.00 XYZ Art Gallery presents a concert with Tripolar Express opening for Lucy the Spy. Lucy the Spy is an indie rock band from Roanoke, VA. Tripolar Express is a garage rock and grunge band based in Blacksburg, VA. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=696148
18. Naturally Sharp Spring Concert: Natman, The Sharp Knight Rises Haymarket Theater (Squires Student Center), Virginia Tech Saturday, April 1, 2023, 7:00 - 8:30 PM Preorder Tickets: $7.00, At the Door: $10.00 Naturally Sharp presents their Spring Concert titled "Natman, The Sharp Knight Rises". Join the caped crusader, the boy wonder, and Virginia Tech's best dressed a cappella group as they tackle the greatest supervillains of all time. Founded in 2002, Naturally Sharp is Virginia Tech's premiere all male a cappella group. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=686155
19. Brad Heller and The Fustics Camp Culture in Concert Dogtown Roadhouse, Floyd Saturday, April 1, 2023, 8:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: $8.00 Hailing from Wilmington, North Carolina, The Fustics continue to expand their audience throughout the East Coast with spirited live shows, and acclaimed studio releases. Blending an array of musical genres into their own distinctive style, the band has evolved from humble acoustic beginnings to a high-energy touring outfit. Incorporating a slab of blues, gallons of folk, a pint of punk, and a hint of country within their blue-collar rock, The Fustics have increased their base through radio, the internet, print media, and a heavy touring schedule. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=686150
20. 2023 Sinkland Farms Easter Eggs-Travaganza Sinkland Farms, Riner Sunday, April 2, 2023, 11:00 AM - 5:00 PM General Public: $10.00 Seniors, Military & First Responders: $9.00, Babies 23 months and Under: Free UPDATE: Due to the weather forecast of rain and high-gusty winds, Sinkland will not open on Saturday as planned and just open on Sunday. Sinkland Farms presents their first Easter Eggs-Travaganza with Easter Egg Hunts for ages 2-10 groups by age starting at noon and visit from the Easter Bunny. Enjoy baby farm animals, Kidz-Zone playground, special kid’s activities, and face painting. Join the Music Sing-along with musician Leslie Brooks (performing at 1:30 PM and 3:00 PM daily), Kid’s Karaoke, and Story Time at 11:30 AM! Dress-up for the Princess and Superhero Parade at 2:30 PM with prizes. Parents can listen to music, explore Arts & Crafts vendors, enjoy beer, wine, food trucks and more. Remember to bring your baskets. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685257
21. Sip-N-Stitch: Italy Blacksburg Wine Lab, Blacksburg Sunday, April 2, 2023, 1:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: $35.00 Blacksburg Wine Lab continues their Sip-N-Stitch series featuring Italy. Your ticket includes a tasting of three Italian Wines, a selection of house made dips with crackers & pita to snack on and a yarn tasting featuring Italian Yarn, along with several pattern suggestions for knit and crochet from New River Art & Fiber. Bring your work in progress and enjoy great company while trying new wines. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685386
22. Virginia Vineyard Month JBR Vineyards LLC, Pearisburg Sunday, April 2, 2023, 1:00 - 5:00 PM Admission: Free Wine Tasting: $5.00, Glasses of Wine: $5.00, Bottles Range from $10.00-$25.00 Start Virginia Vineyard month by tasting wines rarely grown in Virginia with our Pinot Noir and Riesling. Picnics, kids, and dogs welcome. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685911
23. Virginia Tech Flute Studio and Flute Choir Squires Recital Salon, Blacksburg Sunday, April 2, 2023, 3:00 - 4:30 PM Admission: Free Start Virginia Vineyard month by tasting wines rarely grown in Virginia with our Pinot Noir and Riesling. Picnics, kids, and dogs welcome. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=686148
24. Award-Winning Wine Pairing Dinner The Bad Apple, Pembroke Sunday, April 2, 2023, 5:00 - 8:00 PM Admission: $85.00 A Governor’s Cup winning winemaker brings gold medal wines to pair with six delicious courses at The Bad Apple. Live music will be provided by the Mood Swing Duo. Tickets include all taxes and gratuities. Reservations are required. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=685925
​
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading! Go Hokies!

Note: Any troop mustering, patrol setting, siege starting, or actions of that sort must either ping the mods with automod in the comments of the post, or you can modmail us with a link or the details. If the mods aren't notified of the action, we can't keep track of everything and run the mechanical aspects of this game in a timely manner.

• A template to use as a guide when posting or modmailing army movements can be found here.
  
• A spreadsheet to calculate movement times can be found here.
  

Standard mechanical rules such as sieges, CV, etc, cannot be altered by plot odds or lore flavor.

Mustering

Garrison

A holdfast during times of peace are assumed to have 10% of their men raised. This is the garrison, which does not cost money or lead to loss of future income, and is always inside the respective holdfast unless specified otherwise

Mustering Time

You do not raise all your troops immediately.
40% of a holfast's men are "regulars," and can be mustered immediately (either sending a modmail with the orders, or posting it and using automod to ping the mods in the comments), in addition to the constantly raised garrison. The remaining 50% are "reserves" and take a full 24 hours (1 month in game) to be mustered, regardless of whether the regulars are already mustered or not.

Rally points

Multiple allied armies may converge on one spot, or a rally point, marked by an authority figure after a messenger or a raven sends word. Every group of soldiers, by default, must be commanded by a named character of some sort.

Regeneration

Troops regenerate at a rate of 10% per year.

Costs

Troop Upkeep

When levies are raised, they're not working the land. In addition, it they need to be outfitted with basic armor and weaponry, as well as fed. For every 1% of levies raised, the house raising them loses 1% of the next year's income (pre-taxes). Every levy raised costs .01 gold a month in flat upkeep

Desertion

When a month passes and someone isn't paying their troops, some of them will desert. The exact amount that do depends on a roll. The roll will continue to occur each month until the player either pays their troops or has none left. Troops that desert either return to their holdfast, or form bandit groups. Both outcomes count the troops as having "died" for the purpose of them regenerating later for the holdfast. More troops are lost with each month they don't get paid.

1d100	Result
1-25	60% of troops desert
26-50	45% of troops desert
51-75	25% of troops desert
76-100	10% of troops desert.

Troops and Battles

CV and Composition

Every troop has a CV (Combat Value), that is used to judge their strength in battle.
Troops are split up by five different types: light infantry, heavy infantry, ranged infantry, light cavalry, and heavy cavalry. Each type has a different CV, and infantry and cavalry have different movement speeds. Each region of Westeros has different amounts of each type of troop, and different CV values for those troop types. Some regions are missing certain troop types, or have other, unique ones.
Assaults on holdfasts are rolled using ACV for both attackers and defenders
All the troop compositions and CVs can be found here.

Battle Calculation

(CV Team/Total CV of both Teams)*100 = a percent
Consult the chart below after you find how many dice you roll for the given percent
Each side rolls, and then loses a percent of men equal to what the other side rolled (think of the result rolled as the strength of the attack being inflicted on the other side).

% of CV	Roll	% of CV	Roll
7.5-12.5%	1d10	47.5-52.5%	5d10
12.5-17.5%	1d10, 1d5	52.5-57.5%	5d10, 1d5
17.5-22.5%	2d10	57.5-62.5%	6d10
22.5-27.5%	2d10, 1d5	62.5-67.5%	6d10, 1d5
27.5-32.5%	3d10	67.5-72.5%	7d10
32.5-37.5%	3d10, 1d5	72.5-77.5%	7d10, 1d5
37.5-42.5%	4d10	77.5-82.5%	8d10
42.5-47.5%	4d10, 1d5	82.5-87.5%	8d10, 1d5
47.5-52.5%	5d10	87.5-92.5%	9d10

Note:

While patrols with less than 7.5% of CV will autosurrender, an army that is lead by PCs is not subject to these rules, and it is up to the commander of the troops to decide what to do.
For small scale conflicts, Freeform rolls may be utilized by the mods in preference over full mechanics.

Retreat

If the loser of either a ground or naval battle refuses to surrender, they must retreat. Smaller forces have a better chance of retreating, as do forces of cavalry. The formula for retreat is below.
(Engage Speed - Retreater Speed) x 5% = Engage Chance

• As long as the Engage Speed is not less than the Retreater Speed, there is at least a 25% Engage Chance
• If the Engage Speed is slower than the Retreater Speed, there is a 5% Engage Chance

The engage chance refers to the probability that the pursuing force can catch the retreating force and engage them again. Once it is calculated, a d100 will be rolled to find out what happens.
Walls, impassable mountains, and shores make retreating harder, but the level of difficulty is up to a mod. It will always be at least twice as hard to retreat, but it can be higher in certain situations.

Death/Injury Rolls

Any named characters that participate in a battle must be subjected to a death roll. The odds of them dying are based of the percent of casualties their army took during the battle. The below percentages are of the previous roll given during the battle, not out of a full d100.
Bottom 80%: Death
Next 10%: Maimed
Next 10%: Severely Injured

• Example: if your side took 15% casualties than 1-12 is death in a 1d100 roll, 13 is maimed, and 14-15 is severely injured.

Movement and Terrain

Spreadsheet to calculate movement times can be found here.
When moving from one point to another, please specify where you want to go, which troops you're moving, and the PCs (player characters) that are moving with the army, especially the commander(s).
In any route, the starting tile does not count for the purposes of total movement cost.

Movement Orders

Players are required to have the following information when submitting an order to move troops or ships:

• Number of troops
• Composition of troops
• Any PCs and ACs
• A map of their path; if player is unable to submit map themselves, then they can have another player submit one for them with original player's permission

If any part of the required criteria is not fulfilled, then movement order will not be processed and the player will be subsequently informed of such action in addition to what part is missing from their order.

Terrain

Terrain Type	Movement Cost
Fields (Light Green)	1
Hills (Light Brown)	2
Forests (Green)	2
Tundra (White)	2
Mountains (Brown)	3
Swamps (Dark Green)	3
Desert (Yellow)	3
Mountains (Dark Brown)	-

Movement Points

• A host made up of all infantry gets 12 movement points a day
  
• A host made up of all heavy cavalry gets 18 movement points a day
  
• A host made up of all light cavalry gets 24 movement points a day
  
• A party of twenty or less (mechanical troops) gets 15 movement points a day on foot, and 30 movement points a day on horseback
  
  • Player characters don't count as part of the party, as they are not mechanical troops

A mixed host moves as fast as the slowest unit it contains, so most hosts (since they would include infantry) would get 12 points a day, unless the cavalry was riding ahead.
When an army reaches the size of 5,000 men, it will have its speed reduced by 1, and the speed will be further reduced by 1 for every further 1,000 men in the army, to a minimum of 6.

Other Terrain Effects

Hills grant a stationary force an extra 25% CV, and the Non impassible mountain tiles grant an extra 50% CV,
Dornish troops treat desert like grassland, Northern troops and beyond the wall treat ice/snow/tundra like grassland, Crannogmen treat swamps like forests.
A host may opt to hold a bridge/ford in their hex that is not part of a hold. They would gain a defensive bonus from a palisade. (25%)

Scouting and Engagement

Overview

A roll is not required for two armies to meet on roads*, holdfasts, ports, rally points, and passes because they are smaller areas that are assumed to be common knowledge (a pass is any tile of less heavy terrain between two mountains or hills, or between mountains and a river, or between mountains and the coastline). The two armies know everything about each other automatically.
*Meet on roads meaning when one group of soldiers is stationary on a road and another group of PCs or soldiers are moving on the same road in the same area, along the road. If another group of PCs/soldiers are crossing a road in the same tile that a group less than 250 soldiers is patrolling the road, there is no detection.
Whenever two hosts are on the same tile (or adjacent tiles) but not in a specific area like the examples mentioned above, they must roll to determine what their scouts know. The only exception to this rule is an army of under 250 men on one tile, which cannot roll to detect another force, but can still be detected itself.
The rolls determine if one army can engage another force that's either on the same tile, or on an adjacent one. They also determine how much scouts and patrols know about their foe, from the relative size of the army, the region of the army, to the banner that army is flying.
To set up scouts, specify a tile on the map that you want them to patrol on. To detect anything, there need to be at least 250 men in the scouting party, and the tile must be patrolled for at least 1 hour (about a day and a half in game. However, when detecting an army of 1k+ men, a force will instantly roll detection. Making the party larger than 250 can increase the chances that they detect the enemy (see the modifiers underneath the table below). Stationary ships/troops that meet the minimum requirements are assumed to be patrolling, and will mechanically act as such.
If a force remains patrolling on a tile for more than the minimum time, it gets another patrol roll for every further 24 hours (1 month in game) that it stays patrolling on that tile.
If a force detects and is able to engage another force, but does not respond within 48 hours on reddit, the right of that force to act first is waived and the other force can either continue on its route or roll its own detection, depending on the circumstance.
Small parties aren't detected by default, but if someone is attempting to track them or hunt them down in a plot, specific odds will still be used for that detection.
Patrols cannot be set, and forts or ports cannot be built, within 2 hexes of living Essosi cities.
A player cannot have more than 20 troops under their control within 2 hexes of living Essosi cities.

Detection Calculation

Detection Roll

1d20	21-100	101-500	501-1,000	1,001-2,500	2,501-5,000	5,001+
1-4:	Scouts see nothing	Scouts see nothing	Scouts see nothing	Scouts see nothing	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice 5,001+ soldiers nearby (Level 2)
5-8:	Scouts see nothing	Scouts see nothing	Scouts see nothing	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice between 2,501-5,000 soldiers nearby (Level 2)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Level3)
9-12:	Scouts see nothing	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice between 1,001-2,500 soldiers nearby (Level 2)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Tier 3)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Level 3)
13-16:	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice between 501-1,000 soldiers nearby (Level 2)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Level 3)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Level 3)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and all sigils (Level 4)
17-20:	Scouts notice an army in the distance (Level 1)	Scouts notice between 101-500 soldiers nearby (Level 2)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Level 3)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and spot the commander's sigil (Level 3)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and all sigils (Level 4)	Scouts notice an army with exact numbers and all sigils (Level 4)

Some conditions affect the outcome of a detection roll.

Detection Roll Condition	Modifier
Scouts are in adjacent tile	Odds taken from column to the left
Scouts are within two hexes of a player's holdfast	Odds taken from next column
The player controlling the scouts was alerted in some way	+2
Additional men in patrol	+2 per 250 men, caps at +4

Engagement Calculation

Based on the results of the detection roll, the engagement roll has different odds for whether a force can be engaged or not. There are four levels of detection, from only detecting men without any numbers or sigils, to getting all relevant information, each of which is present in the table below.

Engage?	Detection Level 1	Detection Level 2	Detection Level 3	Detection Level 4
1	No	No	No	No
2	No	No	No	Yes
3	No	No	No	Yes
4	No	No	Yes	Yes
5	No	No	Yes	Yes
6	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
7	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
8	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
9	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
10	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Engagement Condition	Modifier
Adjacent Tile	-2

If a unique scenario occurs, it is up to mod discretion to add other modifiers to the detection and engagement occurs.

Sieges

Sieging a keep requires men equal to 150% of that keep's normal garrison (i.e. 15% of that keep's total levies).
A coastal holdfast with a port cannot be properly besieged unless it is also blockaded by ships. Otherwise, the men inside never start starving, and people can enter and leave the holdfast by sea (if the holdfast has mechanical ships in port).
Even if a siege is not explicitly ordered, when an outside force occupies a holdfast tile with enough men to siege, the men inside that holdfast are still unable to muster men without the outside force allowing them to, and must pass a roll to successfully send out ravens.
When sending out ravens under siege, only one raven per outside location can attempt to be sent. A total number of ravens able to attempt to be sent will be rolled by the mod team, based on the holdfast being sieged. Odds for ravens being shot down under siege cannot be altered by either side using special situations (training archers harder, sending out falcons with the ravens, etc).
Forces assaulting or sieging a keep do not automatically know the amount or composition of men inside.

Length of a Siege

The amounts of time a siege lasts before the troops inside begin to starve are listed below. It depends on the number of troops inside, and the normal size of that castle's garrison. For places that don't usually have troops, such as forts, the garrison number counts as 10% of the max capacity.

Men Inside	Garrison 100-200	Garrison 250-400	Garrison 450+
25,000+	0	1	2
10,001-25,000	1	2	3
5,001-10,000	2	3	4
2,501-5,000	3	4	5
1,001-2,500	4	5	6
501-1,000	5	6	7
101-500	6	7	8
0-100	7	8	9

Note: Cities always last 1 less month under siege than they would otherwise.

Starvation

After the allotted number of months have passed, the holdfast begins losing men to starvation by the following amounts. The two columns are added together each time. Percent of the troops is deducted first, then the number of men.

Month	% lost	# lost
1	15%	100
2	25%	150
3	35%	200
4	45%	250
5	55%	300
6	65%	350
7	75%	400
8	85%	450
9	95%	500

If a holdfast under siege doesn't wish to lose men, the only other option is to go forth and fight the besiegers, or to somehow escape by other means.

Raiding

A minimum of one hundred men are required to commit any raid.

Raiding a Holdfast Tile

Garrison: The garrison is not touched for the holdfast in a raid, unless a user specifically says to do so - but the user will know about smallfolk fighting back too.
Raiding Army in Holdfast Tile: The holdfast knows there is an army in their holdfast tile automatically. Regular smallfolk roll for if they know how large of an army, as well as sigils.
Defending Smallfolk: Any raid can be met by 8-13% of the holdfast's total force as smallfolk. This does not include anything from the garrison or keep. For CV, it is 60% Light Infantry; 40% Ranged Infantry

• When a holdfast is 80% raised or higher, it will have no defensive force amongst its smallfolk
• [[1d6+7 Smallfolk Defenders]]

Movement Orders: Must be all submitted and calculated (including potential reward movement point spending) prior to a raid. Without clear and distinct orders concerning movement, a raid will not be rolled

Raid Rewards from Holdfast Tile

Max movement points to spend in a raid is 5 total.
Pillage: Pillaging is the equivalent of searching the lands outside a keep for gold and valuables. The raiders may choose to roll 1d10 for every 1 movement point being spent to pillage the lands. The result of all the dice being rolled is a percentage, times the base income of the hold (see the "next" column of the tax tab of the econ sheet), is how much gold the raiders successfully take. This gold is deducted from the following years income.
Raze: Razing lands costs 3 movement points to do.

• From a Raid:
  
  • Next Year holdfast generates: 35% income
  • 1 Year After holdfast generates: 75% income
  • 2 Years After holdfast generates: 95% income
• From a Siege Party:
  
  • Next Year holdfast generates: 15% income
  • 1 Year After holdfast generates: 60% income
  • 2 Years After holdfast generates: 85% income
• From Someone in Control of the Keep:
  
  • Next Year holdfast generates: 0% income
  • 1 Year After holdfast generates: 50% income
  • 2 Years After holdfast generates: 75% income

Sack: This action can only be taken if you control the keep. All gold stored at the keep at the time is stolen without a roll, and Businesses within the holdfast are effected (by their yearly income) when a keep is sacked.

Raiding a Tile Adjacent to a Holdfast

Garrison: The garrison cannot be apart of these attempts
Raiding Army in Tile: Smallfolk can decide to warn their liege lord - Smallfolk Roll with "Notice an Army" as the lowest; or Smallfolk can attack (later warn liege lord should they win/any survive).
Defending Smallfolk: If opted to fight, smallfolk can have 4-7% of the holdfast's total force as a smallfolk milita^. For CV, it is 80% Light Infantry, 20% Ranged Infantry

• When a holdfast is 51% raised or higher. It will have no defensive force among its smallfolk
• [[1d4+3 Smallfolk Defenders]]

Raid Rewards from Tile Adjacent to Holdfast

Razing:

• From a raid of an adjacent tile:
  • Next Year holdfast generates: 85% income
  • 1 Year After holdfast generates: 95% income

Forts

Forts provide defense bonuses to troops stationed inside. This is nowhere near as much as a castle would, but still a lot more than having the troops just camp out in the open.
You cannot just build a level 2 or 3 fort. You have to start with a level 1 fort and then upgrade it to get to a higher level. Forts cannot be higher than a level 3.
A fort cannot be built on a tile that already has any major structure either on it or adjacent to it.

Prices

Fort Level	Price	Build Time	Cooldown	Troop Capacity	Minimum Troops
1	800	6 months	6 months	1,000	500
2	2,000	9 months	9 months	2,500	750
3	5,000	12 months	12 months	5,000	1,000

Maintenance

A fort has to be maintained in order to avoid falling into disrepair. At the end of each year, a fort needs to have a minimum number of troops (listed in the table above). If it doesn't have at least that many, it begins degrading. After 1 year of degradation, a fort costs half it's price (to get to the current level), and after 2 years, it goes down a level and costs the full price and time to upgrade again. If a level 1 fort degrades for two years, it no longer provides any defensive bonus whatsoever. A tier 1 fort that is partially degraded will have .5 DV, and so forth.

Detection

Forts do not receive the same detection rolls as patrols, i.e. adjacent rolls. However, forts built on roads or in passes do receive detection rolls.

Smallfolk Rolls

Smallfolk rolls are rolled in tiles containing holdfasts, or tiles adjacent to holdfasts. There is only one roll per holdfast, and not for every tile near a holdfast that a force passes through. Tiles that come within range of two or more holdfasts have their single roll determined by which holdfast is closest. If equidistant, a single roll is done and all equidistant holdfasts are informed of the result.
No mechanical actions can be taken as a result of the information gained from a smallfolk roll, which includes troops being raised, gold or characters being moved, and men being sent out from the keep. However, letters can still be sent within 48 hours of the roll results.
For intra-realm conflicts, smallfolk rolls will not typically be performed for forces under 2,501 men, allowing the possibility of surprise attacks and recognizing that civil wars may start without word immediately spreading. Once a conflict has become widely known or in cases where houses are known to be hostile toward one another, smallfolk rolls will be performed for intra-realm engagements.

1d20	21-100	101-500	501-1,000	1,001-2,500	2,500-5,000	5,001+
1-4:	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see army, no numbers	Smallfolk see an army of thousands, no exact numbers
5-8:	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see army, no numbers	Smallfolk see an army of thousands, no exact numbers	Smallfolk see an army of over 5,000, no sigils
9-12:	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see army, no numbers	Smallfolk see an army of thousands, no exact numbers	Smallfolk see an army of around 2,500-5,000, no sigils	Smallfolk notice an army of over 5,000 and one sigil (commander’s)
13-16:	Smallfolk see nothing	Smallfolk see army, no numbers	Smallfolk see an army of hundreds, no exact numbers	Smallfolk see an army of around 1,000-2,500, no sigils	Smallfolk notice an army of around 2,500-5,000 one sigil (commander’s)	Smallfolk notice an army of over 5,000 and one sigil (commander’s)
17-20:	Smallfolk see army, no numbers	Smallfolk see an army of hundreds, no exact numbers	Smallfolk see an army of around 500-1,000, no sigils	Smallfolk notice an army of around 1,000-2,500 and one sigil (commander’s)	Smallfolk notice an army of around 2,500-5,000 one sigil (commander’s)	Smallfolk notice an army of over 5,000 and all sigils

Smallfolk Detection

• Alerts the nearest holdfast
  
• Alerts the Liege Lord of the nearest holdfast (if holdfast is NPC)
  

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

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Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

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On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

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Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

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Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

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But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

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The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

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The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

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Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

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Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

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On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

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In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

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Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

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Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

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Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

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A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)